My ticket is too Large!! Please give me some definite throwouts with reasons.

[pizzalove]

Looking for the horses you feel have the best chance at last place.  Thank you.

[Wrongly]

Decisive Moment would my vote for last place but I could also see Comma to the Top there as well.

[alm]

Happy to offer this opinion (but I am not sure if these are all running):

First, throw outs to me appear to be Stay Thirsty, Jaycito, Watch Me Go, Animal Kingdom.  They are too slow for the most part.

Second, I won\'t be using Soldat, Arch, Pants or Shackleford, for various reasons...they either appear to be likely regressors off previous form or seem to be running with physical problems, which will compromise them at a distance.

It\'s only an opinion.

[PonyBologna]

Jaycito was ruled out of the Derby a few days ago.

I\'m curious to know how you can throw out horses that \"seem to be running with physical problems, which will compromise them at a distance.\" and not include Uncle Mo in that list.

[sekrah]

pizza,

Tell us who is on your ticket, and we\'ll tell you who to throwout.  .

[alm]

Good question.

First, I am only guessing that horses with histories of bearing in or out, who bounce after tough efforts, are actually dealing with muscular or skeletal problems, which don\'t go away...or don\'t go away easily.  Running hard over a greater distance than they\'ve run before won\'t help them.

Second, Uncle Mo may have had an internal problem and it may compromise him for sure.  If it isn\'t total BS, it is curable and he could get back to full health.  And as I said in my first post, I have never had luck excluding a TAP horse anyway.

Stay Thirsty is an exception on my TAP rule because he falls in the first category...and I have a feeling he\'s there for the owner...his running makes no sense otherwise.

[PonyBologna]

Understood. Thanks. Also wondering though,your personal bad luck excluding TAP horses must be in other races but not the KD, specifically. Since, obviously, he has a pretty poor track record in Triple Crown races. Do you take that into account or do you think since he broke out of the slump in last year\'s Derby that he\'s on the winning path now?

[alm]

You are right...it\'s other races...but excluding TAP has been a tough lesson.

As for TAP changing his Derby karma, I try not to take anything into account except for the horses.  It didn\'t matter to me last year that he had a lousy Derby record....Super Saver looked like a winner to me because he didn\'t squeeze the lemon in the prep races, which was the TAP \'M-O\' in previous years.

It doesn\'t matter to me this year that he won last year.

The main reason I think Uncle Mo has to be used is because he is fast enough to win the race.  I\'m sorry if that offends other people who have written a lot of negatives about him, but it\'s basically true.

He is not my choice, however.  Right now I am having an epiphany about Soldat...want to think that over some more.  And I think the horse all of them will have to catch at the head of the lane is Mucho Macho Man.  They may catch him, for sure, but if I was offered ownershp of one of these it would be him.

[SoCalMan2]

Pardon me if I am being a dunderhead.....does anybody know whether or not they are offering dime supers on the Derby this year?  That seems to me to be a very relevant question.  Even 50 cent supers are relevant. It seems each year they say they will go to a dime next year, but then next year never arrives.

[Wrongly]

http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-handicapping/post-times-wager-menu

[vired]

no dime supers. another bonehead move by the clowns

[plasticman]

Stay Thirsty (my friends) is running because if he doesnt run, that means there\'s one more horse in the gate who can beat Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo\'s rivals go from 19 to 18 if ST runs. its a good idea to enter if you have the earnings. Imagine if Mo got nosed by the horse who got into the body of the race because Stay Thirsty stayed home. A lot of people get either 0 chances or 1 chance to win a Derby, you need every advantage you can find.

[Holybull]

I\'m not so sure dime supers for the Derby are a good idea.  It would be a nightmare for teller lines across the country.  And in 2010 Twinspires, Xpressbet and pretty much all ADW\'s crashed due to volume before the Derby.  Also, it\'s nice to see the lotto-sized payouts that $1 supers can bring.

[sekrah]

My tosses that I won\'t be using on ANY tickets.  Period.


Animal Kingdom
Decisive Moment
Stay Thirsty
Twice The Appeal  (even with Borel).
Watch Me Go


The problem is I still have 15 left.  I\'ll narrow this down to inside a dozen after some more works (Brilliant Speed, CTTT, PoF likely to join this list) but I\'m really worried about Animal Kingdom scratching too.. I hope they see enough in him to run him in next Saturday..  Anthony\'s Cross is next to enter and they\'ve already flown him out just in case, and his pattern looms very dangerously IMO for a big move forward.

[SoCalMan2]

Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-handicapping/
> post-times-wager-menu


Thanks much!  Feel like an idiot I didn\'t find this myself.