Working out trips

[big18741]

There are a few pretty good horses that I\'m having trouble figuring trips for and need to be talked out of tossing from everything:

AAA-assuming the rail is okay how can Court work out a trip given the type colt he\'s sitting on? High energy horse that does his best running out in the clear and outside.If he were a dead closer or the absolute controlling speed I have no problem with the inside.I think the draw killed any chance he has.Shuffled into traffic or hard used early is what I\'m seeing.

Soldat-he isn\'t quick enough to clear CTTT or even Decisive Moment and he has Shackleford to his inside.Ground loss figures to be a deal breaker.

Nehro-Nakatani would have to hit the brakes and let everything go in order to save ground.Pretty sure a few others drawn better have the same idea.

[miff]

The derby nightmare only got worse. The fastest sheet horses all drew poorly, with AAA topping the cake with the poison rail.With Mo so questionable, the overall talent level in here probably the worst in many moons.

The year of the bookmaker,for sure.


Mike

[JR]

AAA is screwed. Name the last derby horse to get a good trip from the 1 hole?

Outside is fine for Nehro. Not saying he\'s set to win this but the post should afford him a clean trip with some ground loss in turn 1.

[ROBERT49]

There\'s no question that AAA got the shaft and he certainly needs to work out a trip. But that is why his odds are going to drift up significantly from his ml of 10/1, and I\'m still betting him for 1st and 2nd.  Ferdinand 1986.

[number5858]

I don\'t think you can say AAA is totally screwed. Last year the rail was dead as well. To me, AAA might just be screwed, not definitely. If he can find a way to save ground, and the rail isn\'t dead, he still has a chance.

[number5858]

ROBERT49 Wrote:
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> There\'s no question that AAA got the shaft and he
> certainly needs to work out a trip. But that is
> why his odds are going to drift up significantly
> from his ml of 10/1, and I\'m still betting him for
> 1st and 2nd.  Ferdinand 1986.


Exactly. There are so many things that can happen in a field this size. One of the more favorably placed horses could stumble at the start, a jockey could drop the whip, a favorite could throw a shoe, etc. To me you can\'t dismiss this one, but you can\'t comfortably key him either.

[JR]

I just see another Luckin at Lucky adventure. Nice horse. Wrong place.

[Lost Cause]

number5858 Wrote:
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> I don\'t think you can say AAA is totally screwed.
> Last year the rail was dead as well. To me, AAA
> might just be screwed, not definitely. If he can
> find a way to save ground, and the rail isn\'t
> dead, he still has a chance.


It has nothing to do with the rail being dead.  Did you see what happened to Looking at Lucky last year?  I\'m throwing out AAA as i\'m projecting a brutal trip for him.

[miff]

JR,


Careful, the Kool Aid drinkers think the rail post is ALWAYS good, ask any Raggie. Actually, since they moved the rail post in 3 positions, when they introduced the auxiliary gate, no horse has won from the fence.Sooner or later someone will pull a lucky trip from there and overcome the huge disadvantage.Note the comments of JB in the seminar re AAA\'s possible trip.

The chances of getting a \"good\" overall trip from post 1 are slight and with AAA being a bit of a puller, positional toss #1.Went from maybe semi keying AAA to total toss, gambling on the very high % of bad trips over the last 22 years from the fence.Shame, he\'s one of the faster looking ones with what I believe is a solid looking pattern on the TG sheets.

Mike

[JR]

Agree.

[NoCarolinaTony]

If you use history as a guide, over the past 10-20 years (i am not exactly sure of the timing of this) but the old process of picking a pill to pick your post, the best horses tried to avoid the rail so the randomness of the best horse having the rail is somewhat skewed. If you recall at all, prior to the aux gate Post #1 was best post.


So with that being said, If AAA is best horse  if court can work out a good trip and nothing better than saving ground in the race (see Calvin B). Here\'s to hoping that you all defect to anyone other than AAA.

Soldat is fast enough to clear anyone in this race if right, epecially if it\'s wet....and its highly likely now. Could easily see him sitting side by side with Shakelford. Half this field is turf/poly experts and half this field could be eliminated. The best horses got compromised with bad posts. The wild Card is Uncle Mo but based upon current work outs plus posts I am willing to take a stand against.

Will be back to this with final thoughts as we see weather and defections if any. But the picture is getting clearer to me anyway.

NC Tony

[mjellish]

Agree that AAA got a tough break drawing the 1 post.  Doesn\'t help his chances.  But before we just assume that the rail is the kiss of death, go back and watch the replays of the last 20 KY Derby\'s and cross reference with the charts for the race.  Look at who was in the 1 hole, think back to what you thought of that horse\'s chances, their running style, who was next to them and watch what happens.  Here\'s what I saw.  The 1 horse doesn\'t always get a bad trip.  Sometimes they get a very good trip.

I have no idea if AAA can overcome the rail.  To my eye he has run his best launching a rally from the outside.  So I\'m thinking the rail draw hurt him, but only if he gets pinned down inside for the race and can\'t get out.  If he does I think he is a dead duck because the horse doesn\'t seem to relax with that type of trip.  But he does have a fair amount of tractable speed (take a look at TG Race Shapes or whatever pace figures you use).  He\'s not a slow starter like Lookin at Lucky, and he\'s never broken poorly.  

So AAA will need to break well, clear the the couple of horses to his inside (which he can easily do), secure a safe spot in the 2 or 3 path behind DM, CTTT and whoever else guns for the lead, avoid getting pinched in by STAY and others that may be dropping over and find a way out on the backstretch.  It\'s very possible that he could do that, and drawing the rail may actually help him save ground.

I don\'t know if I\'m being optimistic or not.  But I do know that anything is possible and I\'m not going to spend a lot of time trying to figure out the trip chaos of a 20 horse field.  

Way I see it, part of my money is now going down assuming AAA overcomes the rail, and part of it is going down assuming he is screwed.  Only sensible way to play it for me.  But I\'m not happy about how this is going to split my bankroll. Can\'t believe that the racing gods were this unkind to me this year.  AAA is the ONLY horse I did not want to draw the rail.  Sucks.

[number5858]

Lost Cause Wrote:
> It has nothing to do with the rail being dead.
> Did you see what happened to Looking at Lucky last
> year?  I\'m throwing out AAA as i\'m projecting a
> brutal trip for him.


Of course I saw Lucky last year, but look at the final results in which 4 of the top 6 started from PP1-4:

1. Super Saver - started from PP4
2. Ice Box - started from PP2
...
5. Noble\'s Promise - started from PP3
6. Lookin at Lucky - started from PP1

AAA doesn\'t have the same horses to the right of him that Lucky did. Maybe AAA\'s connections will figure out something different to try. I didn\'t say it would be easy for AAA. I just said it is not impossible, and flat out tossing him is a mistake, IMO. I will adjust by making sure I get better than 10-1 (which I think I will) if I am to use him on top, will use him lighter on top, but will definitely be using him underneath.

[RICH]

In addition, I just watched the replay last year, borel had SS out and on the rail in 5 seconds, if court can get out quickly get a position and sit back, its doable, not easy, but doable.

[alm]

Be careful saying anything negative about the Racing Gods...they don\'t personalize things...none of us are that important.  If you\'re not careful they will really concentrate on you and your bets.

Having said that I appreciate your take on AAA...there is a possibility for him if he relaxes.  For my part I can only \'see\' this race through the first half mile and feel pretty sure the jockeys on the speed have to make earlier moves than they might have made had the draw gone differently.

Soldat has to gun even if they just want position behind Comma...ditto for Shack...I think the early group stretches out the field going into the backstretch.  If this happens the big question will be how effectively MMM, AAA and Mo can be placed in the second flight...how much ground can they save?

The most dramatic moves in the early part of the race will feature TTA, DI and Nehroo...it\'s going to be fun watching what those jockeys do.  There\'s only one rail path and each of these is going to want it for awhile.