I had my bad beat before the race even started

[covelj70]

well, at least I got my bad beat story out of the way before the gates even opened this year.

I was planning on unloading on Archx3 but the post draw will cause me to cut by amounts by about 75%.

I will still key him because I really don\'t like anyone else in the race but I will be playing very small amounts.

So, Arch is my key and I will use him with Brilliant Speed, Twice the Appeal, Shackleford, Mucho Macho Man (who trained better in recent days than earlier in the week) and Midnight Interlude.

The post draw really took alot of wind out of my sails for this derby.  Who knows, maybe Arch wasn\'t going to fire anyway and I am saving myself alot of money this way.

In the Oaks, I will use Joyful Victory, Plum Pretty and Lilacs and Lace (would seem sort of bad luck to leave my own horse off my Oaks/Derby double tickets).

We know Katmanblu will run her 4 but I don\'t think that will be good enough with all of the ground loss.  Zazu needed to have a breeze over the track and she didn\'t and she hasn\'t raced in 9 weeks.  Summer Soiree is training like a run off, she will fly out of there and then be done by the eighth pole.  I would have used St. John\'s River but that post is awful.

Good luck to everyone.

[Silver Charm]

Jim, Good Luck!! If its wet at all Soldat needs to be considered

See you tonite!!

[TreadHead]

Have to assume you are indifferent on Citrus Kid drawing into the Woodford, there is a lot of other E-8 speed in that race and being that far outside it doesn\'t look like a great spot for him.  

But man, what a brutal race that is.  So many questions.  Is Al Khali back in form?  Does Court Vision prefer 9f to 8f?  Is Rahystrada too old? Can Stately Victor get to the same fig on turf?  Will Prince Will I Am run same figs at shorter distance?  Can Mott get off the schnied?

[covelj70]

Tread,

You nailed it.  We decided last night not to run even if we draw in.

We think the horse is ready to run the race of his life and we don\'t want to waste it on a 5w5w trip against these monsters.

We will go for the Dixie on Preakness Day.

Less money and I know Paddy is pointing there but still a better situation than running against these from the 14 hole.

Racing secretary told us this was the first time in his tenure that the race overfilled.

Maybe a good sign for the game with distance turf races overfill.

I think Prince Will I Am will be my pick in this one depending on the odds.  He loves the soft going and he drew well.  I think Al Khali can be used as well.

[covelj70]

Silver,

Will definitely throw Soldat in there instead of Mucho if it comes up Wet Saturday.

Can\'t wait to see you tonight.

[Lost Cause]

Hey Cov,
Good luck with anything you run this weekend.  Can you give any kind of insight on Lilacs and LAce.  This one is a real head-scratcher for me.  Does she seem to be doing well on dirt?  I would totally understand if you can\'t comment, please don\'t even need even reply if you can\'t comment.  Good luck either way.

[covelj70]

Hey LC,

Thanks so much for the message.

The only thing I know for sure about Lilacs and Lace is that she is feeling great.  Much better than before either of her last 2 races.

Her gallop yesterday was the best bit of training she has done since we got her.

Problem is, I have absolutely no idea how she will handle the dirt.

Will she pull an Evening Jewel and jump up on the dirt and be part of the mix or will she pull a Stately Victor and hate the kickback and the surface.

She seems like she likes it in the mornings this week but no one ever really knows until the horse tries to dig in and really push off the ground during a race.  Anyone who tells you they know from a breeze for sure that a horse likes the surface is lying.

Wish I could tell you more but that\'s everything I know

[toppled]

AAA, win or lose, a lot of us will be rooting for his half brother 2 years from now.

[Lost Cause]

Thank You Cov,
Good to know she is doing great.  Must have been tough getting sleep last night with all those butterflies.  Good Luck on the poly to dirt jump up!!

[number5858]

Good luck today Jim. I hope she runs a big one.

[NoCarolinaTony]

JC

What\'s your opinion of Little Mike in this race. Incredible race to be honest.

Thanks and best of Luck

NC Tony

[joekay]

He scratched.