I think maybe Dance City could be a great bet in the Preakness

[big18741]

Sway Away is no POS but he might be a seven furlong or a one turn mile horse.

Think Dublin from last year.Good figs packed with wide but no late punch stretching out.Rebel was excusable-Ark was a crazy ride but my gut says an extra 1/6th isn\'t in this horses best interest.Think Gomez will give him a much calmer ride but it might not matter.

Can\'t imagine Flashpoint wants more ground either.

Playing Shackleford to go in the crapper on short rest and under pressure as well.I don\'t see any of those three finishing in front of Dance City.

[mikemca]

To me with Shackleford it all comes down to how much he was affected by the inside being dead in the Derby.If it was truly dead then he might have kept on opening up and been harder to run down were it otherwise.Coming back in two weeks is tough but he is the one that I don\'t know what to do with.

[jimbo66]

Alm,

Let\'s revisit your post about Sway Away being a piece of shit on Sunday morning.

The horse ran a huge race off the layoff this year against the Factor, sprinting.  

He came back in the 1st Arkansas race and obviously was affected by the pre-race gate incident and NOT the distance as many opined.  I say obviously because the horse was climbing and uncomfortable 50 yards out of the gate.  I would say 50 yards wasn\'t enough to cause distance problems.

Now, the Arkansas Derby was an interesting race.  He wanted to run early and indeed was a bit rank.  PVal managed to grab a hold, but in doing so gave the horse a 5w/5w trip.  Yes, he packed it in during the final 1/16th and didn\'t finish well.  I would say that being rank early and then being 5w/5w is a reasonable excuse to get leg weary late.

Now, at Pimlico, if Gomez can\'t get him to relax out of the gate and he is rank again, he has no shot.  However, if he can get him to relax a bit, which Gomez is pretty good at, I think he has a HUGE SHOT at a very big price.  And \"yes\" to win, not just to fill out the exotics.

I make Sway Away and Astrology both very strong in here to win at 12-1 or better odds on each.

Will post more details once the sheets come out.

[Michael D.]

DC is bred well for the slop too, and he handled it fine back in Jan. 2 to 2.5 point top last doesn\'t concern me much. might be a bit slow heading in. distance an issue, but there is an abundance of stamina in the bottom of that pedigree.

if SWAY was 4w/4w last, he broke through his sprint top by about a point. should be more comfortable in the shades this time around. these type of head-cases need just about everything to break their way though. Garrett helps. distance an issue with this guy as well.

if it\'s dry and he draws well, Sway Away looks interesting vs some of the lower priced runners. much work to be done though.

[Michael D.]

Jim, great minds think alike. Or is it guys who have no clue when it comes to the 2011 triple crown? Leaning towards the latter in my case, but I like this race more than the Derby.

Don\'t think SA is going to be a huge price, but there will be plenty of value, as 8 of these horses have to take money.

[jbelfior]

Michael D:

I think SA has as good a chance to be the 2011 version of Caracatardo as he has of being a force in here.

This race smells of a bombs away coming from the clouds winner or runner-up as many of the early pace types have  weak finishing numbers.

No surprise that AK was able to close on easy splits. What happens if they go quicker to the half and 3/4 this time?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Michael D.]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D:
>
> I think SA has as good a chance to be the 2011
> version of Caracatardo as he has of being a force
> in here.
>
> This race smells of a bombs away coming from the
> clouds winner or runner-up as many of the early
> pace types have  weak finishing numbers.
>
> No surprise that AK was able to close on easy
> splits. What happens if they go quicker to the
> half and 3/4 this time?
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.


Don\'t like to hear that, Joe. Think I used Cara last year, underneath only. SWAY is bred better than Cara to get the distance. I see the possible connection though.

Agree on the pace. Probably in the price though. Everyone\'s talking about the pace of the Derby, slowest in like 700 years. For instance, Dialed In would be a distinct longshot after the lackluster Derby run if the early fractions had been honest that day. Now he gets a pass from a large chunk of the betting public after the :47 final 1/2.

Do you have a closer in mind? I do think DI will run better, but the Fla Derby effort won\'t be enough. Factoring in trip, he\'ll need to move forward 2 points.

[jbelfior]

MD:

Will have to see the sheets first. AK obviously the logical benefactor.

I think DI was just awful in the Derby and I\'m not buying into the pace thing compromising him. Remember the MJ \"rumor\" that probably had more truth to it now that the race has been run.

As for the bombs away closer, Shireffs is intriguing here. Not much bottom going into SA Derby and was closing into soft fractions. Perhaps MI and CTTT should have also taken the extra time. I\'m considering using MC as a key in the 2-hole.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

I\'m going to save my comments for the written discussion, but I have to say you guys are all doing a great job of ignoring the obvious.

[sekrah]

> I think DI was just awful in the Derby and I\'m not
> buying into the pace thing compromising him.

>As for the bombs away closer, Shireffs is intriguing
>here. Not much bottom going into SA Derby and was
>closing into soft fractions


Dialed In getting a sh*t ride, closing into soft fractions, passing 10 horses and making up 10 lengths in the final 4 furlongs = bad.

Mr. Commons getting a rail trip, much closer to the soft pace and hanging in the lane against horses that ended up 16th & 20th in the Derby = good.


Got it.

[jbelfior]

After your commentary on the Derby, my suggestion to you is to take a break.

Joe B.

[sekrah]

Instead of addressing your confusing and contradicting statements, you decide to launch an attack on me.  Nice.

I guess just about everybody here should just hang it up for a while because we all missed a 20 horse race, huh?

[jbelfior]

TGJB:

That we\'re ignoring the 800 pound gorilla in the room known as the birthplace of such stellar trainers as Tricky Dick and family??


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[phil23]

Maybe I\'m missing something, but I like the horse that is the fastest in the race (by far) and will be coming in with tons of rest, training up a storm, and now has two turn experience under his belt.  PLUS he may be close to 20:1.

[big18741]

I played Big Drama two years ago.Had some other fast looking sprinter/milers over the years that spit it early in this race as well.I gotta let Flashpoint beat me at this distance at any price.