Well hell, let\'s actually figure this out the best way possible. Let\'s do the math.
First we need the % chances for each horse, with no takout (to 100%). Certainly room for differing opinions here, but given the #\'s and the available info, here\'s what I get (again, this is NOT a morning line or post time odds, it\'s the actual chances, imo, of the horse winning):
Mucho Macho Man 3.0 25% - best 2yo# by far to run back to, fwd moving pattern
Animal Kingdom 4.0 20% - dirt expl in last, short rest
Flash Point 6.5 13% - fastest # in field, tons of rest, distance ?
Dance City 12 7.7% - TAP, good rest,
Shackleford 15 6.3% - short rest, 0/2/X?
Dialed In 17 5.6% - slow, but what will they do for 5.5M?
Astrology 20 4.8% - lots of excuses in 3yo starts so far
Sway Away 25 3.8% - Gomez
Mid. Inter 30 3.2% - bounced big in derby, SA # wasn\' that great anyway
Mr. Commons 30 3.2% - good rest, but slow
King Congie 40 2.4% - can he pull an AK (1st dirt 3yo) and explode?
Conc. ID 50 2.0% - has a fast # to get back to but off big bounce
Norm Asb 50 2.0% - rested, not terrible Goth #, slow Wood
Isn\'t He P 100 1.0% - over raced, would need 4 pt top (at least).
So, if MM has a 25% chance of winning the race and his present available odds are 7:1, which translates into a 12.5% chance, then the overlay is 25/12.5 = 2
Whereas if FP has a 13% chance of winning the race and his present available odds are 16:1, which translates into a 5.9%, then the overlay is 13/5.9 = 2.3
If (a big if I grant you) my true odds line is correct, FP is the better bet. BUT there\'s also the likely hood of cashing. I seem to recall Jerry mentioning something about how it\'s usually better to take the lower odds overlay if it\'s close (and here it clearly is) due to the much improved chance of actually, you know, cashing. As opposed to taking the slightly bigger value but having to wait out the much longer number of times before hitting.
