My take on the Preakness and Black Eyed Susan

[alm]

I see...you see him possibly pinning Astrology on the rail?

[miff]

Yes,on paper, which doesn\'t work out nearly as often as it appears going in.All his running lines are stalky, off the fence, except the 1st Race of his career and his last.

[alm]

Hmmmm...just looked at the pps again...Dance City is faster, earlier than Astrology...or maybe they\'ve just conditioned Astrology to wait longer...but Astrology can definitely can outfinish the ones who are likely to be in front of him, including Dance City...in other words he can get the first run out of the second turn if he doesn\'t freak over being held down inside.  If this overbaked scenario works out, AK and others will have to run at him from that point on.  Some of the others will be facing ground loss issues because of the set up.

[big18741]

I like both-I\'m keying both.

I think Dance City projects for a perfect trip-Astrology for the ground saving trip.

Using AK and MMM the fast ones with ground loss to deal with.
Norman could improve with six weeks and should save ground both turns.Even if he doesn\'t move forward a 1w1w 5 might get the bottom of the ticket at a big price.

[JR]

Astrology should have no trouble with his position going into turn one. The two horses to his outside are slow and Flashpoint should clear. Dance City is the key. If Dominguez decides to track Astrology on the outside Astrology could find himself in a box as Flashpoint backs up. I like Astrology but if Smith doesn\'t get him outside of Flashpoint somewhere on the backstretch he\'s going to have traffic trouble. Dance City is poised to get the dream trip.

[jbelfior]

JR:

Not so sure tracking just off of Flashpoint amounts to a dream trip. I do not like him to win the race, but I have a gut feeling that while he will eventually be passed, it won\'t be a walk in the park.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Michael D.]

Great analysis, Jim.

It\'s positive that Sway Away put up a # in line with his sprint efforts last. He was rank early, got bounced around a bit, then got hung wide the entire way. If Garrett can get this guy to relax early, he should get an advantageous trip 1 or 2 wide 5 to 7 lengths off a solid pace. A point or two of development 2nd time blinkers on 5 weeks rest is possible, if not probable. Distance is an issue as SA had little left at the end of the 9f Ark Derby, but the 1 3/16 trip at Pim is the least demanding of the 3 triple crown races, and most of these colts have distance concerns. I don\'t see a superstar here that\'s going to inhale the field with a :18 final 3/16.

Key Sway Away.

I see 5 or 6 others that could run in the \'3\' range factoring in ground. I\'d like MMM a lot more if I could picture a 2w/2w trip.

[Uncle Buck]

All I really see at the wire Saturday in the Preakness is chaulk. Sorry but Jeff Bonde isn\'t winning a Spring Classic. Period. You can tell him I said that!

No more \"paralysis by over analysis\" for me this time around.

My tickets are simply straight forward exacta plays:

AK ON TOP! Underneath is MMM, Mr Commons, Astrology, Shack, Dance City.

-Signed, the chaulk eating weasel.
P.S....Motion and Sherrifs are hands down the best horseman here. Not even close

[Lost Cause]

The thing i can\'t get away from with Sway away is I think he might be your leader before the eighth pole.  I have shack, Dance city and flashpoint tiring and astrology not making a quick enough move to stay with Sway away.  Sway away has a nice burst to him and will probably make that move right before they enter the stretch to take over.  whether or not he holds on is where I get stuck.  This is the first year ever I have no real opinions on a derby or preakness race.  Wrong or right I usually at least have an opinion..It sucks because the spreading is killing me..

[PonyBologna]

I\'m just wondering how many passes people are willing to give Sway Away? In his two tries past 2 turns he\'s lost teeth, been rank, gotten wide trips, had rubber legs and so on. Granted none of this is imaginary but at what point do we say the horse just has bad racing luck or is only a sprinter or whatever?

Also, quite a few people talking up the switch to Gomez here. How many Triple Crown races has he won? Not saying he\'s a bad jockey, clearly he has the awards to prove otherwise, but I\'m willing to bet that between his 0-fer and the horse\'s bad luck, this one won\'t be in the winner\'s circle on Saturday.

[streetbull]

Well, since a lot of posters are posting their opinions, I think I will chime in..

Pace of the Preakness...I am positive that Shackleford will not set the pace of this Preakness edition whereas he had set the pace from Flashpoint in the Florida Derby. But it behooves one to take each circumstances individually.....Shackleford had set the pace in the Florida Derby instead of Flashpoint because Flashpoint had bounced from his huge effort in his prior race in the Hutcheson....This time, Flashpoint will be by himself setting the pace followed by Mr.Commons and Dance City....Unlike the Derby, the Preakness pace will be strong and quick.....

With at least three early speed runners, this race outcome will be OTE...(other than early).  Shackleford and the other front runners will be forced  to run a faster pace than their previous race, therefore the winner will be one of the best closers in the race..

What better closer than the Kentucky Derby winner with his impressive final fraction.  The unproven router and closer here is Sway Away...Until he proves otherwise....the jury is out...The other closer will be King Congie coming off the Hallandale Beach turf race and the Blue Grass stakes..There is enough pace here to aid his closing kick...

Final Projections...The  Derby winner Animal Kingdom over King  Congie and the best of the early front runners, Mr. Commons....

Good Skills to everyone...

[APny]

Can someone tell me how anyone who buys the sheets can use Mr. Commons?  This is ridiculous.

[streetbull]

APny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can someone tell me how anyone who buys the sheets
> can use Mr. Commons?  This is ridiculous.



Someone who uses a computer program of the Sartin Methodology in conjunction with the Sheets to verify true contenders and useable running lines.  Form cycles comes into play in using the sheets and to determine if a developing  horse is going to jump up or tail off...(peaked)

Mr. Commons--6.4 turf sprint- early speed conditioning...
-------------mile dirt route--huge hidden turn move....
-------------Santa Anita Derby--workout race-ran to the mile marker only....
-------------(Sherriff did do this manuever with a horse called Giacomo)

besides at 20-1...I will take a stab....:-)

[PonyBologna]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> All I really see at the wire Saturday in the
> Preakness is chaulk. Sorry but Jeff Bonde isn\'t
> winning a Spring Classic. Period. You can tell him
> I said that!
>
> No more \"paralysis by over analysis\" for me this
> time around.
>
> My tickets are simply straight forward exacta
> plays:
>
> AK ON TOP! Underneath is MMM, Mr Commons,
> Astrology, Shack, Dance City.
>
> -Signed, the chaulk eating weasel.
> P.S....Motion and Sherrifs are hands down the best
> horseman here. Not even close


In the past 27 runnings of the Preakness, horses with morning line odds of 9-1 & higher are 1 of 178 (0.6%). Horses at 2-1 & lower are 7 of 24 (29.2%).
Horses between 5-2 and 8-1 are 19 of 82 (23.2%).

[miff]

Mr Commons,think he\'s going to be a nice grass horse, but he is much faster on Rags(in the TG 2.5 range),horrible post!