Handicapping Like a Space Alien

[mjellish]

Jeez Buck,

I have no idea what you are talking about.  No condecension.  Was merely pointing out that if albany thought AK was that clear cut of a winner, 2-1 or better was more than fair.  And he will probably go off higher than that.    

I know it\'s difficult to tell tone from a message board.  But hell, I even acknowledged that albany may be right.  Could be the simplest way to play the race and if the horse wins he won\'t be anywhere near 5/2 on Belmont day.  If you like him, tomorrow is the day to plunge.

[P-Dub]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jeez Buck,
>
> I have no idea what you are talking about.  No
> condecension.  Was merely pointing out that if
> albany thought AK was that clear cut of a winner,
> 2-1 or better was more than fair.  And he will
> probably go off higher than that.    
>
> I know it\'s difficult to tell tone from a message
> board.  But hell, I even acknowledged that albany
> may be right.  Could be the simplest way to play
> the race and if the horse wins he won\'t be
> anywhere near 5/2 on Belmont day.  If you like
> him, tomorrow is the day to plunge.

MJ,

You\'re one of the most level headed guys on this forum. Your posts, for me at least, are must read.

It sounded a little rough at first, but you acknowledged he could be right.  Indeed, tough to tell tone and intent on a board. Good luck tomorrow.

[flushedstraight]

A space alien might wonder why cappers on a speed figure board are tossing out the fastest horse at 20-1 odds based on questionable pedigree. Sure he might come in last, but it\'s not like there\'s zero chance he can run his race. If he does win, the regret will torture many speed guys.

[P-Dub]

HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> You did not specifically define \"value\" at 7/2 in
> your original post, and if you think you\'re
> getting anywhere near that you REALLY must be
> spending time with the little green men.  
>

In a 14 horse field, with several high profile connections, with a Derby winner that wasn\'t picked by many \"serious\" handicappers, why would you assume that he will be pounded down??

This horse will probably be closer to 7/2 than 2/1. Maybe its you thats spending too much time with little green things. Put down your pipe.

[mjellish]

Albany,

I just re-read my post and can see how someone may take it the wrong way.  So to be clear, I did not mean to sound arrogant if I did.  I was merely trying to say that if you feel that way about AK you probably should consider plunging tomorrow because you could be right.  That\'s it.

[albany]

P-Dub:

I appreciate your defense of my position and your understanding that my post was intended to be light-hearted.

Both you and I know that if you drain the ego out of some handicappers there would not be enough left to fill a thimble. By the way, it has been my experience that those ego-driven types almost always go bust.


Albany

[albany]

MJ:

I did not take offense at your post. I think that was reflected in my response to you in which I tried to define what value Animal Kingdom may have. Contrary to some of the comments on this Board, I  fully recognize that it is unlikely that he will reach 7-2. That\'s ok, I don\'t need to bet the Preakness to enjoy the race.

Keep up the good work, I really find your posts to be insightful.

Albany

[Beginner]

I know you certainly don\'t need me to come to your defense, but I would refer anyone who took offense to MJs response to Albany to a post he made on 12/1/10 which started off by stating:  \"I dunno.  I have no problem betting a chunk of change to win at 5/2 or 3/1 if I think the horse is 8/5 or 2/1 win.  Seems to me the key is to always look for value.\"  

I read the post in question as simple advice - go pound AK if that\'s what you believe.  As the guy on this board who probably knows the least about handicapping, I am forced to keep a binder of posts that help me handicap and bet. MJ\'s post I referenced is on page 1 of the tab called \"Value\" in my binder.  It is also cross-referenced in \"Wager Construction\" as I certainly didn\'t hit for $90K in the BC using Blame and Goldikova with ALL, ALL in the 3rd and 4th legs. My guess is MJ has made a few hits since BB...

[jimbo66]

Albany,

Patience is a good thing.  I wish I had some.....

Hey, with Dialed IN at 3-1 early, maybe you get 4-1.  I don\'t think so, but you never know.  

Thinking Animal Kingdom 3-1 and Dialed In 4-1, with Mucho Macho Man at 6-1.  A few in the 8-1 to 12-1 bucket after that.

Interesting that Sway Away was bet very hard in the Black Eyed Susan\'s doubles, but not in the win pool yet, at all.