Nehro

[covelj70]

This horse is a unique animal.

Clearly a very nice horse to finish 2nd in 3 straight good races.  

Then, he finishes 2nd in his breeze the other day.

Normally, when a horse losses his breeze to a workmate, I will throw that horse out of any ticket, esepcially when the horse is the the 2nd place finisher in the KY Derby, Ark Derby and Lousiana Derby as that type of horse should be destroying workmates, even when those workmates are quality horses like his workmate was the other day (horse had finished 2nd in the Derby trial).

However, I have come to believe this horse just likes to finish just behind another horse whether it\'s the one horse in his breeze or the Derby winner.

Therefore, I think one angle to play the Belmont is to key Nehro to finish second.  You can keep a trifecta ticket pretty lean if you single a horse for second.

[TGJB]

Or, Asmussen doesn\'t have riders let the horses run when they breeze.

I will go on record now saying this is one bad betting Belmont. May be the first one I have ever passed. Guessing the undercard will have much better opportunities.

[covelj70]

JB,

interesting point.  

Do you mean that his horses generally aren\'t breezing hard enough or did you mean that in this once instance of Nehro\'s last breeze, the rider might have held the horse back for whatever reason?

[TGJB]

If you look at the times of Asmussen\'s workouts you will see they are almost always s-l-o-w. He doesn\'t let them run. Lots of 50 halves, even for stake horses.

[drbillym]

Jerry,
Wondering why you thought this was a bad betting race as I\'ve actualy begun to get a bit excited about it.  Assume you must think Shack/AK are sure to be 1-2.

[TGJB]

The three favorites are the three most likely winners, unless I missed somebody. Can\'t see what\'s good about that.

[covelj70]

sure, I know that, just wasn\'t sure if you were talking specifically about this nehro breeze or more in general.  Understand you mean more in general now.

I don\'t think Asmussen\'s general approach to slow breezes are why Nehro keeps finishing 2nd.

Curlin and Rachael had the same slow breezes.

[covelj70]

I will happily take a stand against Shackleford going 1 1/2 in this race for his 3rd effort in 5 weeks and I will more than happily take a stand against Mucho Macho Man.  The 1 in the Derby knocked MMM out just like the 0 did last year after the remsen.  The fact that he has lost all of the weight as another poster noted supports that idea that he is going backward right now.  He should not run and if he does, he will take some money and if we can throw him out and Shackleford out, I think it\'s at least a somewhat interesting race to play.

[TGJB]

I\'m saying that finishing second in a breeze where he is under restraint should not be taken seriously.

You an MJ might want to take a look at his maiden win some time and see whether it looks like he was waiting on horses. Or the Arkansas Derby, for that matter. And in Ky, he would have had to run some number to beat the winner after the ground loss.

[alm]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This horse is a unique animal.
>
> Clearly a very nice horse to finish 2nd in 3
> straight good races.  
>
> Then, he finishes 2nd in his breeze the other
> day.
>
> Normally, when a horse losses his breeze to a
> workmate, I will throw that horse out of any
> ticket, esepcially when the horse is the the 2nd
> place finisher in the KY Derby, Ark Derby and
> Lousiana Derby as that type of horse should be
> destroying workmates, even when those workmates
> are quality horses like his workmate was the other
> day (horse had finished 2nd in the Derby trial).
>
> However, I have come to believe this horse just
> likes to finish just behind another horse whether
> it\'s the one horse in his breeze or the Derby
> winner.
>
> Therefore, I think one angle to play the Belmont
> is to key Nehro to finish second.  You can keep a
> trifecta ticket pretty lean if you single a horse
> for second.


I don\'t get it...this horse passes Arch 2 feet after the wire in Oaklawn and you say he likes to finish second.  I\'ve posted this before, so I am risking boring some people.  Do you REALLY think Nehro saw the wire in that race and THEN decided to pass Arch?  Really?  Come on, man.

[TGJB]

What do you do with Shackleford if the Derby would have been a 1 if not for the rail in the stretch? And how do you know whether that\'s true?

[covelj70]

If the Ark Derby was the only race that he had fisnished 2nd in, I think this would be a valid point but he finsihed 2nd in the Lou Derby, Ark Derby, KY Derby and his breeze the other day.

Some horses make a (great) career out of finishing 2nd most of the time.  All I am saying is that this horse could be one of those types.  

Trust me, I would LOVE to own this horse but I don\'t chalk it up to coincidence that he runs 2nd alot.  I think that\'s the kind of horse he is.

I certainly don\'t have the answer key to this thing, I am just saying that\'s the angle I am likely to play in the Belmont.

[covelj70]

I don\'t know and don\'t care what his number would have been in the Derby if the rail wasn\'t a potential issue.  I think his Derby figure is irrelevant given the added distance and the 3rd race in 5 weeks issue.

I will take a stand everyday of the week against a horse that is running his 3rd race in 5 weeks at a distance for which he isn\'t bred.  I will lose some of those plays but as you always say, it\'s about the percentages and the percentages are definitely in my favor in this situation.

I will go back and do the study later tonight after I put the kids to bed about how many of the horses than ran in both the Derby and the Preakness ran their number in the Belmont.  I guess very very few but I have been wrong before so let\'s see what the data says.

[miff]

Cov,

I would be in agreement with you on Nehro being a hanger if he raced say in NW1x a few times and finished second. In the case of this lightly raced horse who was tossed to the wolves early on, I\'d tend to think he\'s just getting beat by horses running just a bit better than him right now.

I exactly know where you\'re coming from but I think he\'s a tough read as a confirmed hanger or one with seconditis.I will agree that the \"big\" horse is supposed to \"win\" the work at most outfits.

Mike

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Not sure you can structure a play around being against Mucho Macho Man as I think he goes off 8-1 or higher, if the top 3 show up.  

As for Nehro, I think you can structure a play against him, but it seems dangerous.  I don\'t want to use him in the top slot, but boy he has been running \"his race\".  Tough to see him out of the exotics, espeically with 5 weeks into the race.

BTW, willing to bet that Nehro is the chalk here.  Assuming the big guys show up, I make Nehro 5-2, Animal Kingdom 3-1 and Shackleford 9-2.  I like Shackleford as a horse and have no problem with his figures/pattern or even 3rd race in 5 weeks.  What troubles me is that it is one thing to be worked up and sweating bullets before the race and pushing a fast pace in the Preakness, and still being able to run well, then it is try the same scenario going 1 1/2 miles.  To win, he would have to really relax on the lead and not push the tempo too hard.  Don\'t think I can bet him to do that.