Much to do about NOTHING!!

[Dana666]

Not exactly. I was using the T-G Sire Index and adjusting the numbers; in Smith\'s case, his horse\'s sire was one point faster in route races, so his last number figured to be even better on the stretch-out. Her horse had already run route races, so I took that number more at face value. Adding the extra weight she was carrying Sunday, her horse had more like a 12.25. His number was a 10 minus the extra point for the distance, now a 9. I don\'t see how the race should have been close and it wasn\'t.

[Rich Curtis]

The horses carried the same weight.

[Dana666]

Right, not last time though. Chantal\'s horse ran an 11 last time (in a synthetic route race) and was getting 7 lbs for the match race. Smith\'s horse ran a ten (in a synthetic sprint) and was getting three pounds. So you\'ve got Chantal\'s horse now approx at 12.25 and Smith\'s 10.5 but with the Sire Index I took a point of Smith\'s horse (for the stretch-out) so now he\'s at 9.5 --that\'s a significant difference. I realize not everyone uses the Sire Index, but of all the things Jerry\'s invented to me that is the most innovative tool because it lets you project what will happen, no other sheets or numbers can do that. Of course it\'s not perfect but it\'s amazingly useful in such situations when a horse is stretching out or moving from one surface to another.

[Rich Curtis]

No. The previous weight carried is already in the figures. You\'re double-counting it.

[jimbo66]

Dana,

I am not trying to be a wise guy, but you aren\'t really doing the math with the figures correctly.

Their previous figures are all already adjusted for weight carried in those races.  All you need to do when analyzing the current race is compare the weights for that race.  In this case, the weights were the same, hence \"no adjustment\".  That isn\'t meant to be a debate, that is how Thorograph makes their figures.

As for TGI index, that is debatable how to use it as a handicapping tool.  I use it a lot when a horse is trying a distance for the first time.  I find it very useful.  I don\'t quite get what you are doing when using it for the Smith horse that already had run both sprints and routes and had established form.  But that\'s your call.  It strikes me as using \"theoretical\" when \"actual\" exists, which isn\'t how I use the index, but to each his own.

[JimP]

I question the validity of adjusting the figures for the impact of the sire without also adjusting them for the impact of the dam.

[Dana666]

It is def. \"theoretical\". If a horse hadn\'t run the exact distance and surface, it would seem like that\'s the right way to approach it, no? He\'s doing something he\'s never done before. You\'re right though. I did that b/c Smith\'s horse hadn\'t run a route race on synthetic, just grass, so I adjusted the sprint number which was recent and earned on synthetic, albeit Hollywood.

I\'ve used the Sire Index a lot. For me it is one of the best aspects of T-G\'s.  Doesn\'t mean I\'m doing it by the book. Is there a book anyway? Did Jerry ever write a book?

Like the other guy was pointing out, am I not adjusting the number correctly for weight? If a horse earns an 11 with 115 lbs and today is carrying 120 I should stick with the 11 and not make it a 12? That doesn\'t sound right to me. Is that the way you all do it?

[Dana666]

Of course that\'s a good point and T-G\'s have (sometimes) the info. for the dam as well as siblings. Only problem is the dam has only her career for us to look at and maybe there are a few siblings for us to look at, but a very limited number of races; the sire may well have hundreds or even thousands of runners, so the data is a bit more consistent (and reliable?).

Maybe I\'m too literal and exacting of the data, but how else am I supposed to use it? I find I usually get hurt when when I\'m not that way, but that\'s just me, and it depends on how much time I have to analyze it. In a match race there\'s a lot of time.

[Dana666]

All things being equal wouldn\'t a horse who got an 11 with 115 pounds get a 12 with 120 today? You\'re saying go with the 11 that he earned at 115 and don\'t adjust it if he\'s carrying 120? So if the horse was carrying 130, I wouldn\'t adjust it either??? So if horse \"a\" earned an 11 with 115 and horse \"b\" earned an 11 with 130, I would assume both would run an 11 today if they both carried 130??? That doesn\'t sound right to me. Maybe Jerry will chime in here.

[JimP]

It should work either way. The relative point difference among the horses will be the same either way.

[TGJB]

You shouldn\'t be looking at the weight they carried last time at all, it\'s built into the figure they got that day. You should only concern yourself with weight DIFFERENTIALS today. A horse who gets 5 pounds has a one point advantage.

[JimP]

My previous statement was not correct. Bad math.