Well...

[TGJB]

I\'ve been kind of debating whether to say this here, but I\'m going to. Like all horseplayers, I have an ego.

I\'m closing out what is arguably the best year in the history of pari-mutuel wagering. There are those who have made more-- there\'s at least one guy who bets 200 million anually and makes 7% on it, after maximum rebate (meaning he\'s betting into about an 8% blended takeout). He makes more in absolute terms. But I don\'t think anyone else has ever made 30% on handle BEFORE rebates on handle of 7 figures.

I have no real explanation for this-- to be fair, I had relatively small losing years while betting less in 2009 and 2010 (which was driving me nuts, since I knew a lot of guys who were making money using my data. As Parcells said, at some point you are what you\'re record says you are, and I was not happy about what mine said). I did do very (VERY) well on Pick 6\'s this year, which previously was my worst area (big loser before this year), but I was a pretty good winner aside from them. I killed California and NYRA, got killed at all three Kentucky tracks, but obviously bet a lot less there. The other tracks were all over the place but an overall profit, with much lower handle.

The other thing is, I was losing for the year until mid-June. As crazy as the overall numbers are, they\'re nothing compared to the ones for the last 6 months.

Anyway, betting this much has been incredibly stressful (which I mostly notice when I lose patience and snap at someone. I came close recently to getting into two bar fights, and I haven\'t thrown a punch in anger since high school). I am totally sick of betting horses, races  I look at are a blur. So I\'m done betting for a while.

Unless there\'s a big carryover...

[magicnight]

Never did congratulate you for having two of those five winning tickets a couple of Fridays back, so, well done on that and the great year.

[TGJB]

Thank you.

I guess one thing I did do differently this year was take a different approach to Pick 6\'s, but it\'s not something that will help too many here, since it\'s hard for smaller bettors. Basically, I started figuring out what races I really had strong opinions in, went narrow in those, and spread out in the others. The theory is if you\'re going to lose, make sure it\'s because your opinion is wrong-- don\'t get knocked out in wide open races where you have no opinion. Sounds simple, but it\'s expensive.

That Aqu pick 6 was a pretty good example of that, as I described in my earlier post. I had no strong opinion in several races-- on one of the tickets that won I \"alled\" two races.

This definitely is something even smaller players can use in Pick 4\'s, where the bet size and combos are smaller. You\'re often better off going 2x6 than 4x4.

[martoon]

Congrats Jerry!  Stressful I get.  I\'m a big Redskin fan and of course was excited when the legend Joe Gibbs came out of retirement and returned to coach the Skins.  Well I knew it was never going to work when I saw Gibbs turn away from watching his own kicker attempt a game winning field goal!  He literally turned to the stands, dropped to his knees, closed his eyes and prayed rather than watch the field goal.  The head coach! And he did this a couple times after he came back.

I say this because that\'s how I\'m getting now watching a race with any kind of real money bet on it.  I find myself turning away and not even watching until they hit the lane.  I\'m losing my stomach for it, even though I fully realize that kind of nervous energy is what makes the sport so invigorating.

Anyhoo.. Congrats again on killing them in the 2nd half.  Nice way to head into the holidays.  On another note.. I think you need a new product.  Something like your race of the week but more of a race of the day or several best bets of the day, or a wekend stakes package for those of us who don\'t have time, or more likely too lazy to do their own serious handicapping on a regular basis.  I\'d buy that one regularly instead the Analysis product.

[sighthound]

Congratulations.  Even though it\'s parimutual, always glad to congratulate the one that gets it right - or even lucks into it.  Sometimes hard to put one\'s money where their mouth is.  Well done.

[HP]

What do you think was going on in Cali and NY vs. KY?  I have not touched Cali in years and would be curious as to what you had to say about it and what you think works there, if you could isolate anything.  Any particular track-to-track moves on the circuit that work?  As for NYRA maybe you have a \"homecourt\" thing going or is it something else?  

Could be just as valuable if you could figure anything specific out about what did not work in Kentucky.  Any factors beyond figs that helped/hurt you, or you leaned heavier on the pure fig angles or what?  

Finally, maybe there are a few trainers/jocks you\'d have good/bad comments on?  Or not.  You\'re probably not retiring on top right?  LMAO.  

Anyway answer any or none of the above.  I know you\'re not blowing smoke so congrats.  HP

[Beau]

Jerry,

I usually play pk\'4 as my main focus and this past Saratoga meet there were more than a couple opportunities to make HUGE scores on the pk4\'s... I would have my single (Strongest opinion) in a race then I would try to spread in the other three and just missed the HUGE score by not spreading a little more getting 3 out of 4... it gets expensive! I can really see where a PK6 can get VERY expensive when you do not have an opinion on a race or two.

Anyways, Well done and congrats!

[Footlick]

Congrats on the wagering and on this site.  It is informative and well structured.  The Race of the Week and the Redboard services are exceptional considering they are offered free of charge.  I don\'t use figs regularly, but if I am going to check any out for particular races, these are the only ones I look at.  Thank you to you and everyone associated with your organization. And to all the regulars whose contributions are also greatly appreciated, whether agreed with or not.

[plasticman]

Congrats Jerry, its incredibly satisfying to have that huge year (or, in your case, a huge 6 months) that\'s good stuff. I love success stories like this because it gives everyone hope that yes, you can get red hot and destroy the windows and this is a great game that can be beaten.

[TGJB]

If I only have one opinion in a sequence of races I\'m not playing pick 4\'s or 6\'s (unless there\'s a carryover). If you like one horse bet it to win. Don\'t make your result depend on other races where you DON\'T have an opinion.

[TGJB]

HP-- As far as Ky goes, I\'ve had no shot at Kee for years, even before they went poly. There is at least one guy who uses our data (he\'s probably the best day-in-day-out pro horseplayer not using software) who beats that place to death. He\'s very trainer conscious-- not just who is \"hot\", but in terms of who uses Florida just to get them ready for Keeneland and later in the year, etc. I spent a few days down there with him last Spring, hated some of the horses he bet. He won, I got killed. Again.

I don\'t know why I didn\'t do better at CD. The biggest handicapping factor in the game now is surface, with all these different synthetics, and horses going from one to another. The fact that a lot of runners at CD are coming off synth races could be a factor in my results, but the bottom line is if I knew what I was doing wrong I would have changed.

NY of course doesn\'t have synthetics, which is a plus. I have finally adjusted to the synth stuff in California. At that circuit and NYRA I feel like I have a good feel for what the questions are, and I\'m able to come up with a lot of the answers. At Keeneland I feel like I don\'t know the questions-- certain type feet? Works over the track? They run short meets, it\'s tough to get a handle on things.

Other things also make things easier in California and NY-- workout info (I use Harrington) in Cali, Maggie Wolfendale commenting from the paddock in NY. In both cases you have to know how to interpret and integrate their opinions (which is what they are). The workout stuff was partly responsible for my biggest hit of the year, and Maggie had a lot to do with my having the only 5 live tickets for a pick 6 with carryover a month or so ago. Didn\'t hit it, but she also gave a push that day to a first timer I was using anyway, so I bet it straight. It paid $80.

One final thing, and some people won\'t like it. The fact that Ragozin\'s figures have gone in the toilet is a big plus. It used to be they were landing on the right horses a lot, but now any place a lot of people are using their data there is a ton of dead money in the pool. California and NY are two of those places.

[jack72906]

Congrats JB. I wonder where all of the \"it\'s impossible to make money in this game because of the takeout\" whiners are now......

[miff]

Congrats, can I borrow a few hundred k to buy Agave Kiss?

[TGJB]

Does Rudy come with her?

[phil23]

Yep, congrats indeed.  Inspirational post.