Michael D. Wrote:
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> Baffert\'s most successful Derby horses did not
> come in off big tops. POTN came in off a 0.5 top,
> War Emblem a pair, Real Quiet a 0.5 top, and
> Silver Charm a pair. The closest thing to a big
> top and a good finish was Congaree, who ran off a
> 2.5 top and paired. All the other tops led to
> regressions. Here they are, most recent on top:
>
> 3.75 top - 4.5 back
> 2.25 top - 17 back
> 3 top - 5 back
> 8 top - 15 back
> 3 top - 12 back
> 6 top - 9 back
> 3.5 top - 1.75 back
> 4.5 top - 1.5 back
> 3.75 top - 1.5 back
>
>
> We talked about Sinister Minister, but the other
> interesting Baffert runners from the \'06 Derby are
> Point Determined, who came in off a 3 point top,
> took good money, and backed up 5 points, and Bob
> and John, who also ran off a 3 point top and took
> action, and collapsed.
>
> Bode might look a lot like Congaree, who ran off a
> 2.5 top on 3 weeks rest after the visually
> impressive 1:47.9 in the Wood. Congaree paired,
> and probably would have run faster had he not
> gotten sucked into the brutal pace. Baffert\'s best
> Derby performances, though, involved horses coming
> in off pairs or fractional moves.
When I started this string of posts, this is exactly the kind of response I was hoping for. You did a great piece of work here, something I would not have the time nor patience to do. But it made a point that was only an impression I\'ve had about Baffert. He\'s a great trainer for sure, but he seems so desperate to repeat his Triple Crown successes that he\'s changed his style...pressing horses to big efforts to get them ready. Pletcher on the other hand has learned to move in the opposite direction and he may be more competitive than ever as time goes on. And he\'s not the only one. As someone pointed out a few days back, beware of our friend Kieran third off the layoff. That\'s not a freak statistic, it\'s a trainer intended outcome. Doesn\'t always work, but his Alpha may be sitting on a big one.
