I haven\'t seen much on the Oaks yet, so I thought I\'d get things started here. I\'m looking for some opinions.
Here are some of my thoughts on the main contenders after looking at the sheets for the race.
Broadway\'s Alibi-has paired good #s but there are 2 major question marks-She\'s never been 2 turns. Will she be able to avoid a suicidal pace up front? Also, why was this filly at Delaware last August instead of with TAP at Saratoga? Obviously has exceeded the August expectations.
Grace Hall-Looked good winning the GP Oaks with a 3 pt jump up from her previous 2 turn top and 2.5 new top from a sprint last year. Will she continue to improve or not? If she doesn\'t improve, there are faster fillies in this race. If she\'s the favorite, she\'s very beatable. She did have a good 2nd on this track in the Breeder\'s Cup. Ramon is slated to return & there\'s still the question of when he\'ll be 100% physically.
EDIT-OUT OF OAKS Mamma Kimbo-Undefeated and trained by Baffert, but she\'ll have to run a new top to be competitive here. She\'s another one who has to avoid a killer pace. She won\'t be on any of my tickets.
Millionreasonswhy-An interesting long-shot if she can run back to her sprint numbers. For whatever reason, Johnny V rode her instead of Broadway\'s Alibi in the Comely, where BA dusted her. Only a neck off of My Miss Aurelia in the Adirondack last summer. Another who has never been 2 turns. Lots of questions, but a definite overlay.
On Fire Baby-Ran a huge new top winning the Honeybee at Oaklawn and gets 8 weeks rest. A pair up puts her right there at the wire. I\'m looking at this horse in a very positive way. The new top was 1st time lasix, she\'s 2 for 2 at Churchill, I view the 8 weeks layoff as a plus which I hope negates the chances of a bounce, she\'s stabled at CD and had a great workout last week going 7f in 126.80 and galloped out strongly continuing to 1 1/8 in 154.80, her season debut was against the boys and at one point they were talking Derby for her. She may not be the longest price, but with Grace Hall, Baffert and Pletcher fillies taking money, and even Rosie getting over-bet by the ladies, she should be a square price & she has the co-fastest top going in. Obviously, if you\'ve read what I think, you know she\'s my tentative pick before any more news & PP draw.
Welcome Guest-Has paired up some decent races and could contend with improvement, but this is her 1st attempt at 2 turns.
Yara-She beat Grace Hall when GH was coming back for her 1st start of the year, but she looks way too slow to compete here.
EDIT-OUT OF OAKS Zo Impressive-ran a number in key race allowance at GP which could be a jump off point if she shows improvement, then bounced in the GP Oaks & still ran 2nd to Grace Hall. She\'ll have to move forward &may have a future, but she\'ll only be on my shortest of savers in here.
