So here\'s mine, horse by horse.
Daddy Long Legs: he would win here if there were 19 Little Chappys in the race. Unfortunately for the sheiks they already had their shot at that bogus contender.
Optimizer: next year I hear D. Wayne will wear a saddle on his own back if that\'s what it takes to get into the Derby.
Take Charge Indy: his strongest race was the loss to El Padrino...I view his Fla Derby as a regression...he got a super speed favoring track that day and beat horses who were questionable in here or who are not here. Plus I don\'t think down inside and a 1w1w trip is the place to be at CD, where the track super announced his retirement NEXT year. Don\'t compare this one to Super Saver unless it rains and this track is the same as that year. At the very bottom of verticals, if he gets there at all.
Union Rags: his best are right up there, but his last was a regression. Doesn\'t give me a lot of confidence anywhere but on the bottom of a vertical ticket. Plus there\'s the matter of pedigree, which is weak in this field even if his physique is perfect.
Dullahan: most likely too slow on dirt. Maybe he bumps up to a vertical ticket, but I don\'t see it and I think Kent squeezed the lemon really hard at Keeneland....three weeks ago. Yikes.
Bodemeister: his numbers put him on the ticket, but not on the top. I really don\'t buy the Ark Derby number...don\'t think he\'s a War Emblem. Sorry.
Rousing Sermon: too slow. Excellent candidate to join the ranks of hundreds who run somewhere from 10th to 20th. Just as the TG analysis pointed out yesterday that Larry Jones had a bad Churchill record (excuse me), too many people are pointing to Jerry H\'s great Churchill record. We all regress to the mean in life and then we die. This one\'s dead.
Creative Cause: showed the numbers to compete until the last race. It has been pointed out here that IAH regressed and won the SA Derby, so what does that say about this colt\'s effort in that race? I can\'t play everyone, so this guy gets dropped off a serious regression.
Trinniberg: God, I wish he was my horse. He would stay at home. That\'s not saying he won\'t carry his game a lot further than many here think he will. He just won\'t be around at the end.
Daddy Nose Best: that was a breakout effort at Sunland and it would be competitive here if he can repeat it. I am betting that he won\'t, second time on dirt. And Gomez is currently riding like a slug and Julien thought he had a better shot with Union Rags and so on.
Alpha: competitive on all his races. Don\'t like Maragh here, but you toss this guy at your peril.
Prospective: too slow on all surfaces.
Went the Day Well: what can I say? For years I\'ve watched people who won the Derby struggle to find a reason to come back the next year. This horse provides Team Valor a good reason, but will lightning strike twice? I don\'t think so and will leave him off.
Hansen: you have no faith guys. I would toss him if I was sure that his last was a regression, but I\'m not. It was by far his best poly effort, including those visually monster wins at Turfway. I can\'t take the chance that he won\'t run back to his best on dirt, which is good enough and he gets the catbird seat...the controlling speed on the outside.
Gemologist: my future book bet. I like him a lot. His number\'s right there. He drew the post I hoped for. If he has another forward move in him, he wins this easily. If not, so I lose.
El Padrino: maybe had one of the best races of any of these, three back. Regressed, but not that much and held the regression level over two races. Gotta use him in the mix.
Done Talking: too slow.
Sabercat: too slow.
I\'ll Have Another: I view the SA Derby as a small regression, but don\'t see him being fast enough to win from a disadvantageous post. Just don\'t see it.
Liaison: I honestly don\'t know what the hell this one is doing here, other than the fact that there might have been an empty slot on the plane they used to fly in Bode and their other Churchill entries. Pass.
Contenders: Alpha, Hansen, Gemologist.
Behind them: Union Rags, Bode, El Padrino.
Maybe on the vertical ticket only: Take Charge Indy.
