What would you do with Verrazano?

[TreadHead]

Train him up to the Derby?  I think the extended layoffs of Barbaro, Big Brown, MTB, and Animal Kingdom have finally dispelled the notion of needing a race close to the Derby.

I hate to see him race on dirt again due to the possibility of getting engaged in a taxing speed duel and throwing a large number up again so close to the Derby.  If he must race again (I know this will be unorthodox), I hope they will consider a synthetic race where it isn\'t nearly as likely he will throw a huge, taxing figure or get pushed thru some uber-fast early fractions that could increase injury probability.  It won\'t matter if he wins the race or not for Derby points.

While we have seen 3yr olds run negative numbers like his in the past, most of those have been from sprinters or mid-distance horses who didn\'t have the stamina or heartiness to be able to recover from those figures or duplicate them at longer distances.  His female family suggests (to me anyway) the Classics will not be a problem for him.  

Unless some other major contender emerges in the next month, he seems as good a triple crown chance as we have had in awhile, at least when looking things over at this time of year.  All this said, they obviously have to keep him in one piece, and you never know what can happen.

[Michael D.]

I\'d run him in the Wood. He\'s big and really fast. Distance is the issue, and I think the Wood in a month with another month to the Derby is a good way to build stamina.

[phil23]

Yeah it\'s a bit of a quandry eh? Some quick math has me thinking he regressed to around a 1, which means he\'s more or less sitting on an 0/2/X pattern. So...do you try and get the X out of the way before the big one? But even then, no guarantees he can instantly bounce back to his big one, off an X, for the derby.

Of course healthy 3yo\'s don\'t have to 0/2/X. They can immediately get back to their top (or better...). So he also might just rebound. in which case you would want THAT to be his derby number.

TAP sounds for all the world like they are racing him once more (probably Wood). TAP uses the sheets so you\'d think he\'d want to try and \"manufacture\" the best pattern possible. Which in Verrazano\'s case is probably something around 0. Basically something about that is just maybe a 1pt fwd move from what he ran yesterday, to put him right on top of a huge one for the first Saturday in May.

Worst case scenario I suppose is he wins the Wood by 20. Hello Bellamy Road.

[miff]

If Verranzano trains up to the derby, that\'s a negative.TAP is only going that route if Verranzano shows he\'s a bit tired.Beyer has him at a TG 0 yesterday but first time 2 turns,slight bobble at the break, and not the slickest negotiation of that first turn does not say regression imo.

Before he\'s crowned,he has to deal with at least 2, maybe 3 others that will race in the last major preps.Think he deserves top spot as of today but far to go.

Mike

[phil23]

Mike - I agree on him training up to it. I do think only way that happens is if something is amiss, or at least not where it should be in Pletcher\'s view.

One interesting consequence of the new pts system is that if you do win one of the 50 pt\'ers and you have your spot booked, you really could take a softest as possible approach to the last prep if you wanted. Even some kind of specially written conditions stake (Timely Writer anyone?). People would lose their minds and bad mouth the horse/connections for being afraid and avoiding the big boys, but who is to say that might not be the most astute way to have your horse ready to fire his best (ie a top) race on derby day.

The Illinois Derby may have outsmarted themselves by moving two weeks later. If they\'d stayed put on Wood/SA weekend, think they could easily have attracted one of Orb, Verrazano, or Vyjack.

[drbillym]

Keep him away from Kentucky testing (Gemologist, other Pletcher disappointments)

[richiebee]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
 
> Unless some other major contender emerges in the
> next month, he seems as good a triple crown chance
> as we have had in awhile, at least when looking
> things over at this time of year.  All this said,
> they obviously have to keep him in one piece, and
> you never know what can happen.


Triple Crown?

a) No 2YO foundation
b) Only four lifetime starts going into the Derby
c) Goes out for a trainer who has burned major money in triple crown races and
preps
d) Someone here or elsewhere asked about More Than Ready as a dirt/distance
sire. According to TG stallion stats, MTR has had 99 stakes winners; 46 of
these 99 SWs were on dirt; 50 of these SWs won at distances of 1 mile or less

Given the lack of 2YO foundation and the connections, I\'m setting the over
under on the number of Triple Crown races Verrazano wins at 1.5. And I am
betting \"under\".

[Caradoc]

Richie,

Considering the trainer\'s checkered history regarding getting talented horses to the Triple Crown (Eskendereya, Uncle Mo, Violence, etc.), never mind their performance once in, I\'m setting the over under on the number of Triple Crown races Verrazano starts at 0.5.  I\'m betting \"under\".

[TreadHead]

Fair points RB, but I\'m definitely not sold on \"foundation\" concepts given the last decade.  Big Brown, with a far more brittle pedigree, made a TC run on only 3 starts and AK was a head and tough trip away from making a similar attempt on 4 starts.

You do this colt a tremendous disservice by not factoring in his female family into any of the discussion.  That said, you and I must be looking at different TG sire profiles, because what I see is a horse that has his highest win % on dirt and avg TG figs, win%, and stakes wins that are virtually identical at over or under a mile.  That doesn\'t provide any talking point in my book.

Also missing from the discussion is that, although his male side pedigree does contain a few questions, so does every other major contender so far this year, and in most cases, those pedigrees also contain questions on the female side, where stamina influences can be just as large, if not larger.  Unless someone starts throwing 0s with an 8f+ pedigree on both sides, I\'m not worried about any other contenders being better than him at the classic distances, I\'m more worried about the horse staying in one piece thru the spring campaign.

[moosepalm]

I find it hard to get excited about a horse whose connections have a Kentucky Derby record comparable to my own.  I understand that, as a stand alone statistic, pointing out TAP\'s 31-1-1-1 record has limitations, but I think if you rounded those numbers out with the quality of horse flesh with which he had been given, plus the attrition of many stellar prospects before even reaching the CD starting gate, some skepticism about his latest can\'t miss is warranted.

[Michael D.]

Tread,

I wouldn\'t hold the pedigree against Ver either. Any colt with that kind of stride and Giant\'s Causeway on bottom is eligible to win the Ky Derby in this age of milers. Some erroneously held Dixie Union against UR last year, but if you took one look at the horse and factored in the long-winded genes below, you figured distance would not be an issue. I\'ll be more concerned with Ver\'s next figure and final 1/8. He probably backed up a few points going from a mile to a  two-turn  1 1/16 with a 12.7 final 1/8. If he can\'t run any faster going 9f, and puts up something like a 13 final 1/8, I\'ll make his chances of getting the mile and a quarter smaller than most handicappers will (won\'t be concerned, obviously, if he flies early, slows down late, and puts up a Big Brown type figure).

[miff]

One thing to watch with TAP 3 yr old prospects is ANY deviation from a planned work or race.Delhomme,for example, was never supposed to make his initial start in March, have to watch him, working bullets at PM.TAP barn closely guards \"issues\" with any of their top runners.

All other TAP derby contenders are on schedule,none looking physically better than Shanghai Bobby, who just about everyone thinks is distance challenged.Think guys forgetting TAP has so many, a few bound to go bad. His owners want to win the Derby and there is no way to do that without training thru some issues and pressing down on them for bottom, some wont handle that.

Also out of Florida, a rumor/story that Itsmyluckyday came out of his last \"tired\" and has possibly missed a start.Connections saying that\'s BS and planned a break off heavy 2 yr old campaign.If this one gets to the gate in May,very dangerous.

Mike

[Silver Charm]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TreadHead Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>  
>  
> > Unless some other major contender emerges in
> the
> > next month, he seems as good a triple crown
> chance
> > as we have had in awhile, at least when looking
> > things over at this time of year.  All this
> said,
> > they obviously have to keep him in one piece,
> and
> > you never know what can happen.
>
>
> Triple Crown?
>
> a) No 2YO foundation
> b) Only four lifetime starts going into the Derby
> c) Goes out for a trainer who has burned major
> money in triple crown races and
> preps
> d) Someone here or elsewhere asked about More Than
> Ready as a dirt/distance
> sire. According to TG stallion stats, MTR has had
> 99 stakes winners; 46 of
> these 99 SWs were on dirt; 50 of these SWs won at
> distances of 1 mile or less
>
> Given the lack of 2YO foundation and the
> connections, I\'m setting the over
> under on the number of Triple Crown races
> Verrazano wins at 1.5. And I am
> betting \"under\".

Ritchie how many of those 46 dirt Stakes race wins were over a Mile. That is the key #. Also as I try and get a feel for this Sire \"More Than Ready\" I am starting to think Mr Prospector. And not in the Lifetime Achievement category but a similar profile. Raced as a Sprinter, was an effective Sire of both Dirt and Turf horses even though he never raced on Turf. Prospector was not a good Derby Sire until I guess FuPeg came along.

That 1.5 Triple Crown wins you set I actually think is a good # for how many of these races he runs in, NOT actually wins. I would lean over there but its just a lean at this point. The Real Trainers of this game (Wittingham, Plain Ben, Woody, etc) have got to be rolling in their repsective graves at the NOTHING BUT SPEED training on display by both Pletcher and Baffert. Rating side-by-side off a half in 45 or 46 is not teaching a horse to rate.

[TGJB]

I have no doubt the horse was tired after two monster efforts, and Plesa announced the day after the race that IMLD wouldn\'t run again until the Fla Derby (as Pletcher did with SB). Those two things are undoubtedly connected and exactly the right move considering IMLD doesn\'t need development from here-- just points. Nine weeks to the prep and five to the Derby is a dream scenario for both horses.

[miff]

Not a bad plan JB, but both are threading the needle to get to the derby,i.e. finish at least 1,2,3 in their last try.Doesn\'t leave any room for a bad trip or any other misfortune, new point system creating new strategy for trainers.IMLD will have to show he\'s not over the top already,imo His last two featured monstrous internals as well as strong speed and performance figs.

Shanghai Bobby, strictly a TAP call based on this horses physicality.While he\'s grown up from 2, he is not in the same area code physically as say Verranzano(not many are) and a few others. Think that\'s why Verr race will race one more time before derby.

Back at Ozone Park, Vyjack galloping like a wild horse.