2012 Remsen = 2005 Louisiana Derby ??

[Thedudeabides]

A long time ago one of the newspaper handicappers at Longacres had enough of some people constantly saying they could do better (his betting column lost money every year).  I knew him personally and he was smart and was one of the better public handicappers.  He offered to go head to head with five people (drawn from whoever wanted to enter) over two days, one horse, every race...it wasn\'t even close, the five challengers were terrible when it came down to making picks 36 hours in advance.  About ten years later, when the Internet was in it\'s infancy, three posters on a local horse racing site challenged me (I publish a tip sheet and do TV as an analyst for Emerald Downs)....this time top picks for every race over the five day race week.  Two of them dropped out after the second day, the third did the whole week and ended up with 7 winners out of the 45 races (compared to my 18).  As mentioned, it is much, much harder to do when you have time constraints and are forced to pick every race, than when you are sitting at home, watching the races on TV and making a decision minutes before the start of the race.

I like listening to Andy -- while he can be very, very wrong about some races, overall his observations add value and are a benefit to novices and sometimes even seasoned handicappers.  Obviously, many of the TV hosts don\'t add any value whatsoever, but that may be a function of the target market they are appealing to and other reasons.

[drbillym]

I heard that tirade, too, P-Dub.  And I also listened to Byk get into an argument about pedigree with Lauren Stich.  He was clearly wrong, but persisted so vehemently that I could feel the sweat pouring off his neck.  That was Lauren\'s last appearance, which is a shame, because she brings an angle to the game that few others pursue in such depth.
I like listening to Little Andy, and yes, it is a tough job.  At least he doesn\'t rip people off by selling his analysis.  It\'s free and every bit as good as many of the handicappers\' selections which go for 10-25 bucks a whack.

[Rick B.]

Thedudeabides Wrote:
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> Obviously, many of the TV hosts don\'t add any value
> whatsoever, but that may be a function of the target
> market they are appealing to and other reasons.


What I\'ve heard is that most of these jobs pay the
equivalent of sock lint. So you get what you pay for.

Do what I do: go ahead and listen to these folks, then
pick your own losers.

[Topcat]

jimbo66 Wrote:
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> TGJB,
>
> As far as Serling goes, I would love to see your
> definition of \"great\", when it comes to the role
> Serling is in.  
>
> Agreed 100% that the job is impossible.  I don\'t
> doubt it, without ever having had to do it.  Lost
> enough money on my own opinions over the years to
> know that I would look like a fool broadcasting
> them to the public regularly.
>
> That said, since I know how hard this game is, and
> Serling should know that too, I would not be
> obnoxious, arrogant, pompous and overbearing, when
> delivering those opinions.  His opinions don\'t
> come down from Mount Olympus, etched in granite.
>
> Classic Serling was this Summer, when he was on
> the Steve Byk show, I believe opening week at
> Saratoga.  He was covering his thoughts on a few
> races in the pick-6 sequence.  He gets to a race
> where Steve mentions that he thinks a Pletcher
> horse trying turf has a good shot, at a price.
> (maybe Hobbs?).  Serling, snarky as hell, says the
> race is wide open as only Hobbs and one other have
> NO SHOT to win.  He goes on to attack Byk and
> criticize him, on his show, saying how can any guy
> with any knowledge or horse racing have that
> opinion.  Needless to say, the punch line is that
> Hobbs wired at about 8-1.  
>
> I saw Steve Byk that weekend (at the annual Mensa
> meeting with Frank D, Richie B, and others opening
> weekend).  I mentioned it to him.  For those that
> haven\'t met him, Steve is a super friendly guy,
> one of the last guys you would feel the need to
> attack and diminish the way Serling did.  Steve
> just laughed it off and said \"that\'s Andy\".
>
> Last point on Serling.  I will strongly disagree
> that he \"asks all the right questions\".  He asks
> some of them, but he dilutes that with a whole
> bunch of his own preconceived views, \"invented
> observations\" and other things, such that the
> \"right questions\", get clouded.
>
> Give me Brad Thomas any day of the week.  He would
> be \"great\".  The insight, without the
> attitude.........
>
> Jim


Brad Thomas remains the comfortable leader in the clubhose in this category, especially given the relative difficulty of the meet (Mth) in question.   No obfuscation, no alibis, no BS, no shoving corpses under the rug, no mindless allegiances to theories which aren\'t valid, a pleasant delivery . . . what\'s not to like? You have to be sharp to keep up with him, but that\'s part and parcel of the game.