2012 Remsen = 2005 Louisiana Derby ??

[jimbo66]

Calling Board historians (Richie B, Frank D, Michael D, Miff, etc.etc)

I hate to annoy the host, but this 2012 Remsen conversation is starting to remind ome of the 2005 Louisiana Derby.  High Limit (trained by Frankel?) got a \"1\" or so, winning that race, driving Chuckles the Clown and Class Handicapper into a frenzy, where they collectively set board posting records, questioning the figure.  (eventually leading to Class getting banned?)

I should check the archives, before typing this next sentence, but am too lazy, but memory says that \"1\" had TGJB call High Limit the \"value\" of the Derby and the Preakness.

I hope we don\'t go down that path again.........

[TreadHead]

Delhomme displaced during the race and is being sent to Rood/Riddle for further eval.  Equating that to having anything to with Remsen (unless you are trying to call runners out of it cursed), well Andy Serling says is dopey.  Here are some tweets from him today, which I loved and were spot on:

Andy Serling ‏@andyserling
I have seen some pretty dopey comments made about the 2012 Remsen, so I\'m going to offer some facts....

Andy Serling ‏@andyserling
There were 3 Graded Stakes run at 1 1/8 miles that day at Aqueduct, 90 minutes apart, so it is an absolutely accurate figure & easy to make

Andy Serling ‏@andyserling
The first 3 finishers finished over 17 lengths in front of the 4th finisher which further increases the likelihood a high number is accurate

Andy Serling ‏@andyserling
Delhomme being eased in the Rebel cannot possibly, to any sane person, discredit the Remsen...

Andy Serling ‏@andyserling
...unless you are willing to believe if he ran in another race he would have run well in the Rebel. In that case, check yourself in.

Andy Serling ‏@andyserling
Normandy Invasion actually ran very well in the Risen Star after a nightmare trip. Let\'s wait a little while before condemning him.

Andy Serling ‏@andyserling
OK, I\"m finished. Hope that helps explain things.

[covelj70]

Horseplayers love nothing better than giving \"bad trip\" horses multiple chances.

If I had to read one more time before the Tampa bay derby how dynamic sky had such a \"bad trip\" in the Sam Davis I was going to be sick. I don\'t think anyone who said that even watched the Sam Davis. The horse had a perfectly clear run from the 3/8ths pole to the wire and never got past the winner even in the gallop out. Then the horse is the wise guy 2nd choice in the Tampa bay derby and runs a non threatening 4th and everyone is surprised.

I see same coming up for Normandy invasion in the wood. It won\'t be better horses with more tactical speed but it will be the \"bad trip\" just so everyone won\'t feel so bad about backing this horse before the race.

Where are all the dynamic sky backers now? They will soon have company in the form of Normandy invasion backers.

[jimbo66]

Tread head

All I can say is that u make me long for head to head betting. One of us would make a fortune as the next thing u post that I agree with or Vica versa, will be the first.

Do you watch or bet on the New York circuit?  If you did, one of the last people I would quote with an opinion to support my own is andy Serling. His next winning day in 2013 will be his first.   A classic case of the need to be careful when listening to loud and forceful opinions and confusing them with good opinions.

I love that Serling and u think Normandy invasion ran well. I hope others agree.  Serling picked Normandy invasion to win the derby so he can\'t give up on him yet.

Jim

[miff]

\"Normandy Invasion actually ran very well in the Risen Star after a nightmare trip\"

Yes,ran VERY well in La La Land, tough trip, far from nightmare. No turn of foot,flat lined internals, a modest run late when most of the first 5 were running in neutral at that point.When 7 horses finish within a few lengths at the wire, it\'s a weak dirt race!

NI may win the TC but had little run in his
last compared to his giant long run in the Remsen or his maiden breaker.

Mike

[richiebee]

High Limit, trained by Frankel, I think owned by Gary and Mary West and carrying
their hot pink silks, was JB\'s choice in the Derby. I think I argued pretty
strongly that this was the owner\'s decision, and not the trainer\'s, to go in the
Derby. Lets just say that Frankel\'s tone going into the Derby was not supremely
confident, and Frankel, like Mott, like Jerkens, like Shug, was not a trainer who
liked to rush 3YOs to the Derby. As a cynical race caller might say, HL had a good
view of the entire Derby field at the finish.

On an unrelated note, last year a poster presented a question about what we
learned about handicapping from the Breeders Cup. My answer would have been to be
willing to change an opinion about a horse rather than stubbornly holding on to my
beliefs about said horse. In my case, the horse was Little Mike, who I didn\'t
think could get 10 furlongs in the Arlington Million and certainly didn\'t think
could get 12 furlongs in the BC.

My point here is that if a colt such as NI, for example, ran well in his final
prep and trained and looked well coming into the Derby, your opinion of the Remsen
as a \"negative key race\" should not carry nearly as much weight and you would have
to let it go. Just one man\'s opinion, and by no means an endorsement of NI.

[Ritis]

Andy Serling,my friend you make me laugh,the man doesn\'t know which end is the tail and which is the head,betting or even considering his opinions will send you to the poor house sooner than you deserve.LOL

[TreadHead]

Andy Serling does something that any reasonable handicapper understands is an impossible task before he even starts it.  He has to offer an equal opinion on every race on the card.  There isn\'t a single one of us here that wouldn\'t be in the poor house if you had to play every race on the card risking similar amounts.

I respect Andy because he chooses to undertake this impossible task and all the grief that comes with and think he provides a valuable service either way.  You don\'t have to agree with the analysis he has given on a race in order for it to be thought provoking.  His comments may make you think about something you previously hadn\'t.

People who feel the need to prop up their own egos by talking down at people like Serling, TVG or HRTV hosts, Katie Mikolay, Jill Byrne, etc might as well be telling us how much the Washington Generals suck or how bad a wrestler Leaping Lanny Poffo was in the 1980s.

And none of this takes anything away from the correctness of the comments he made that I posted earlier.  Seems like we have a bunch of posters here with bright political futures.  If you can\'t attack the message, attack the messenger instead.

[TGJB]

Agree. I have had a lot of arguments with Andy, but he does a great job. He\'s very good at explaining what the QUESTIONS are in handicapping a specific race, and he brings a lot of NY to it.

You think that stuff is easy, step into his shoes one day. It was tough enough when I did it on Post Time-- and I had my choice of races to do, and did it on tape, where there are do-overs.

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

As far as Serling goes, I would love to see your definition of \"great\", when it comes to the role Serling is in.  

Agreed 100% that the job is impossible.  I don\'t doubt it, without ever having had to do it.  Lost enough money on my own opinions over the years to know that I would look like a fool broadcasting them to the public regularly.

That said, since I know how hard this game is, and Serling should know that too, I would not be obnoxious, arrogant, pompous and overbearing, when delivering those opinions.  His opinions don\'t come down from Mount Olympus, etched in granite.

Classic Serling was this Summer, when he was on the Steve Byk show, I believe opening week at Saratoga.  He was covering his thoughts on a few races in the pick-6 sequence.  He gets to a race where Steve mentions that he thinks a Pletcher horse trying turf has a good shot, at a price.  (maybe Hobbs?).  Serling, snarky as hell, says the race is wide open as only Hobbs and one other have NO SHOT to win.  He goes on to attack Byk and criticize him, on his show, saying how can any guy with any knowledge or horse racing have that opinion.  Needless to say, the punch line is that Hobbs wired at about 8-1.  

I saw Steve Byk that weekend (at the annual Mensa meeting with Frank D, Richie B, and others opening weekend).  I mentioned it to him.  For those that haven\'t met him, Steve is a super friendly guy, one of the last guys you would feel the need to attack and diminish the way Serling did.  Steve just laughed it off and said \"that\'s Andy\".

Last point on Serling.  I will strongly disagree that he \"asks all the right questions\".  He asks some of them, but he dilutes that with a whole bunch of his own preconceived views, \"invented observations\" and other things, such that the \"right questions\", get clouded.

Give me Brad Thomas any day of the week.  He would be \"great\".  The insight, without the attitude.........

Jim

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB,
>
> As far as Serling goes, I would love to see your
> definition of \"great\", when it comes to the role
> Serling is in.  
>
> Agreed 100% that the job is impossible.  I don\'t
> doubt it, without ever having had to do it.  Lost
> enough money on my own opinions over the years to
> know that I would look like a fool broadcasting
> them to the public regularly.
>
> That said, since I know how hard this game is, and
> Serling should know that too, I would not be
> obnoxious, arrogant, pompous and overbearing, when
> delivering those opinions.  His opinions don\'t
> come down from Mount Olympus, etched in granite.
>
> Classic Serling was this Summer, when he was on
> the Steve Byk show, I believe opening week at
> Saratoga.  He was covering his thoughts on a few
> races in the pick-6 sequence.  He gets to a race
> where Steve mentions that he thinks a Pletcher
> horse trying turf has a good shot, at a price.
> (maybe Hobbs?).  Serling, snarky as hell, says the
> race is wide open as only Hobbs and one other have
> NO SHOT to win.  He goes on to attack Byk and
> criticize him, on his show, saying how can any guy
> with any knowledge or horse racing have that
> opinion.  Needless to say, the punch line is that
> Hobbs wired at about 8-1.  
>
> I saw Steve Byk that weekend (at the annual Mensa
> meeting with Frank D, Richie B, and others opening
> weekend).  I mentioned it to him.  For those that
> haven\'t met him, Steve is a super friendly guy,
> one of the last guys you would feel the need to
> attack and diminish the way Serling did.  Steve
> just laughed it off and said \"that\'s Andy\".
>
> Last point on Serling.  I will strongly disagree
> that he \"asks all the right questions\".  He asks
> some of them, but he dilutes that with a whole
> bunch of his own preconceived views, \"invented
> observations\" and other things, such that the
> \"right questions\", get clouded.
>
> Give me Brad Thomas any day of the week.  He would
> be \"great\".  The insight, without the
> attitude.........
>
> Jim


I guess you didn\'t hear Byk and Davidowitz discuss Zenyatta.  Byk was screaming at him, because Davidowitz had the audacity of having a different point of view. Hard to believe Serling has had moments poorer than that one.

I\'m sure Byk is a swell guy, but pretty sure everyone has their moments.

[jimbo66]

Well P-Dud,

It depends.  If Davidowitz was making the case that during Rachel\'s 3 year old season, that Zenyatta was even close to as fast, then he deserved to be yelled at....  

Let\'s climb down that rat hole next

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well P-Dud,
>
> It depends.  If Davidowitz was making the case
> that during Rachel\'s 3 year old season, that
> Zenyatta was even close to as fast, then he
> deserved to be yelled at....  
>
> Let\'s climb down that rat hole next

LOL. lets not!!!!

And I\'ll take the Blame for bringing up the Z word.  Its just that every time I read the name Byk, I think of that conversation.  It was pretty entertaining regardless of who you agreed with.

[TGJB]

If you look up horseplayer in the dictionary the words \"strong opinion\" are in there.

The thing about Andy is he voices those opinions before a race, both positive and negative. And that\'s good, as much when he\'s wrong as when he\'s right. Makes for some pretty entertaining stuff.

[miff]

Strongly opinionated does not equal strong opinion.