Normandy Invasion

[jimbo66]

Tread

Not sure how he was bet today matters, but he was bet about right.  Lots of Vyjack haters thinking he would not get the distance.  Roughly co second choice behind 4-5 winner.

The race today was slow.  Maybe the slow pace was the major contributor.  I would believe that before I started thinking the filly race was super fast as TGJB suggested might have happened.

I watched the race a few times. Castellano saved ground and got a decent trip except for horribly slow pace.  Was making up almost no ground until very late in the stretch. Maybe that means he can suck up in the derby and pass tired ones.  

The story out of today\'s Wood IMO is that Verrazano looks extremely bearable to me and a toss at short odds.   Off the perfect trip 49 half, sitting off a sprinter, he is supposed to draw off with authority.  He looked just ok in the stretch.

Flashback also looked weak today.  

Thinking orb the most likely winner of the derby but I for one will be looking for a few price horses to stab at

Ji,

[sighthound]

I really don\'t think Verrazano was \"all out\" in the least - jock only threw two crosses and hit him once in the stretch - it was all hand ride, and the horse was barely breathing when he got back.

[TGJB]

I didn\'t say super fast. At a quick glance, even if you don\'t factor in the extreme difference in pace, adjusting for time, weight and ground, Wood goes about 3 points better than the filly winner. Pretty clear what figure puts the Wood top 3 together at the wire.

[TreadHead]

Price horses from where, the Bluegrass?  You\'ve already written off all of LA, Ark, NY, and sounds like you aren\'t impressed with Cali either (which I actually agree with).

[jimbo66]

Tread

With u writing off California, I will start my search there.  Your next correct opinion will be your first

[TreadHead]

Like Normandy Invasion being a solid bet to run much better after the Risen Star, for example, which you strongly disagreed with.  Better look in the mirror there buddy

[TGJB]

Knock it off, guys.

[miff]

NI could always try NW1x if he bombs in the Derby!

[jimbo66]

TGJB

The ground loss for Verrazano on the first turn was the kind I would take any day if I could track a no shot horse through a 49 half.  Will see how the figures turn out but that feels like a slippery slope.  The wood doesn\'t look good to me at on the numbers versus the rest of the card, including the filly race.

Very curious as to the several others u have as candidates to sweep the triple crown.  Guess will see in the seminar.

As for these fast fillies, in any other year, besides the rachel year, there are three or four who would be solid favorites.

But if dreaming of Julia runs her race, they don\'t have a shot

Jim

[Fairmount1]

Not meant to antagonize.  Just my thoughts on NI.

Jimbo mentioned Dollar Bill.  As they came through the lane watching on TV, the fractions were not on the screen other than I knew 49+ for the half, and I wondered is this an example of Dollar Bill, Saarland (beaten 3 1/2 in Wood with displaced palate excuse), or Funny Cide.  When i saw the time....I knew he definitely isn\'t Funny Cide.  I was thinking Saarland, Dollar Bill wiseguy garbage.  

NI was in a grade 1 race and ran 2nd but he again does not have the electric move you saw as a 2yo.  Some astute observations I never caught about his size, his preparation for the Derby with two races certainly are helpful in understanding him.  However, he has been working bullet after bullet and had every opportunity in the lane today to fire past but came home slowww.

Essentially, I see NI as slow, closer (although not too far from the slow pace today) that could clunk for tri/super money at best in the Derby.  In his defense, he visually appeared to be gaining on Verrazano, galloped out past him into the turn, and was in between horses down the backside while tugging JJ to the front before JJ was ready to send.  But where was his turn of foot in the stretch drive before the wire.  I just think the race was slow.  I\'m looking for my Derby winner from somewhere other than the Wood.

As for Verrazano\'s triple crown chances, his long stride, and his not breathing hard after the race....I am cynical I know but I\'ve heard this story many, many times before.  Plus I don\'t like More Than Ready at 1 1/4 miles, granted his Damside has serious distance although I agree with Stitch\'s line of thinking that Sire determines distance abilities/limitations.  I\'ll take Shug and Orb to be ahead of Verrazano at the finish although that\'s not to say others won\'t win.

[Fairmount1]

And there are plenty of reasons to bet she won\'t run her race in Louisville.

[TreadHead]

It still feels to me like this kind of analysis is fitting a square peg in a round hole.  Each internal 1/4 was faster than the last in this race all the way up to a mile, it wasn\'t until the 9th furlong that they started slowing down a bit.  Compare this to the LA,SA,FL derbies where every internal 1/4 was slower than the next?  It was an unusually run race.

[TGJB]

Unless the wind changed the stretch run was also into a strong wind-- last 8th much faster than the fillies, obviously pace a factor. But NI and the other two finished strong.

[Fairmount1]

NI\'s splits assuming rough estimate that 1 length is 1/5 (.20) second which is flawed but will have to suffice for this rudimentary exercise:

Opening quarter approx. 26.06
Second quarter approx. 24.16 (50.22)
Third quarter approx. 24.22 (1:14.44)
Final three furlongs.  35.98 (1:50.42)

Giving the devil his due (see what I did there with a former Wood winner?), I see a horse that you could argue needs a fast pace ahead of him to set up his closing kick and he was compromised by the slow pace.  But given how close he was through 6 furlongs, I believe that he ran his typical race today.  

_______________________________

2012 Remsen NI Splits

Opening Quarter approx. 25.69
Second Quarter approx. 23.98 (49.67)
Third Quarter approx.  24.27 (1:13.94)
Final three furlongs.  36.19 (1:50.13+nose)

________________________________________

My math could certainly be wrong and feel free to check it and correct it.  He does pick it up late in his races it seems which is positive but he goes so slow for that first half mile, its difficult to see him having enough talent to be a Derby winner.  Those fractions obviously don\'t account for track speed which would affect a true comparison with pace figures based on the other races of each of those days.  But I just don\'t see a horse that is a Derby winner.  I could see him as a Belmont type horse potentially that reminds of Drosselmeyer just grinding away at that same speed and I think that\'s what you will hear Brown say after the Derby when he runs a similar race to today with a speed figure not fast enough to win with a middle to top 5 finish.  CB will say that they will skip Preakness and shoot for the Belmont.  

Out of curiosity, what odds do you expect or hope for on Derby Day if you seek to play him?  I think 10 or 11-1 is top of the line you will see more likely 6-1 to 8-1.  Figs will certainly affect that and the field isn\'t set so its hard to guess just yet.  

I will say this:  I am way more likely to use NI in a horizontal wager than Verrazano at 7/2 to 9/2 favorite.

[jimbo66]

Interesting stuff on the fractions

As for odds in the derby the win pool is skewed every year because of the influx of dead money.   That said, Verrazano will be less than 9-2, that I would bet almost anything on.  Thinking 3-1 favorite is about right.  As for tread\'s stud Normandy invasion, he can\'t possibly be 6-1.   He will be double digits albeit likely low double digits. 10 to 12 to 1 or so

Wondering if anybody will give goldencents a shot?  I didn\'t think he would
Get the 1 1/8 but he finished well and rated pretty kindly today.   If he drifted too far  in price, he could be interesting.

Jim