Wood

[TreadHead]

The point TGJB makes on the wind is important.  Though it is only visible for a split second, the flag is stiffly in the face of the home-stretch and JFK website data shows sustained winds around 15-20MPH with higher gusts much of the day.  This kind of wind would have dried the track out quickly, making it softer sand and slower as the day goes on, in addition to wreaking havoc on individual split times.  

Comparing these raw split times or overall times to anything run at GP or SA under much more stable weather conditions and speed favoring tracks just seems nonsensical to me. And even if you do compare the coming home times of these 3 races, the fact that the Wood was better and they were running into such a stiff wind that entire time makes those efforts that much more impressive.

[miff]

Bit,

Goldenscents had a TG top of like 4 going in, the horse he beat, Flashback, like a TG 3.Golden was faster on Beyer ran a top fig like TG 2 going in(converted from Beyer)Only one other two turn race, Beholder at 1/16 th shorter. Goldenscents comes up huge, wide and fast. Have no idea what he will get but ran one of the fastest \"pure\" derby preps(discounting Itsmyluckyday and Verranzanos no point races earlier in the year)

TG and Beyer differ on track speed at Santa Anita. There are many strings here regarding some West Coast horses out running their TG figs when they ship.

Mike

[TGJB]

It also means you can\'t compare two turn routes with one turn miles where they had a strong wind at their backs for half a mile.

The other thing about high winds is they are not constant. The observer looks before and after the race (if he\'s doing his job), but a) they can be higher or lower for the time in between, b) they can gust when the horses are on the backstretch (or somewhere else), c) there\'s a building there that causes tricky air currents. If you go to Aqueduct during the winter you will sometimes see the two infield flags pointing AT each other-- wind coming from behind the grandstand sucks together, like around an airplane wing. Try creating a formula for that.

The effect of wind involves a square-- a 10 mph is 10 x 10, effect of 20 mph  is 20 x 20. High winds have a huge effect on times, in speed figure terms, when you get above 20 you might as well forget times and just go by the horses, because gusts make such a difference, wind currents are nuts, and the trackman estimating wrong even slightly changes things a lot.

[TGJB]

Yes, there are many strings. And I have shot the s--t out of them over time, as with the Euro nonsense. People remember the ones that fit their theories. We have done an awful lot of computer analysis of this stuff.

[Fairmount1]

Watch the replay of the Carter.  http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/videos/swagger-jack---2013-carter-h/

The clock says the horses hit 6 furlongs in 1:08.79.  I have their come home time in that race at 12.65.  Equibase and DRF have the fraction listed at 1:09.79.  But here are the fractions of the Carter and closing fractions of the four stakes races yesterday according to Equibase\'s charts.  As miff points out, the Gazelle was so fast early, they crawled home and I agree with that.  

From Equibase\'s Chart
22.17 44.63 1:09.79
Final Time:
1:21.44
Split Times:
(22:46) (25:16) (11:65)


______________________

And also from Equibase but the Carter is wrong I think:

Gazelle:    14.03
Bay Shore:  12.92
Carter:     11.65
Wood:       12.55

[miff]

JB,


Unless the gods were involved, in the race immediately preceding the Wood, they roared home under 12 in comparison to Verr who crawled(for him) in 13.3, wind at his back, and got home ok 12.55


Maybe wind had something to do with it,me thinks slowwww!


Mike

[mjellish]

Seems like the Wood figure is often up for debate every year.  Tricky track with wind.  At least we have another 1 1/8th race to compare to.  That being said, there is no question in my mind that the track speed changed as the day went on.  And keep in mind that the \"stiff\" wind would have helped the colts on the backstretch and should have produced quicker middle fractions, no?

I would be very surprised if the Wood doesn\'t get the s_pace designation.  A slow early race shape is likely to compress the overall figure because horses can\'t close their last 1/4 in 22 flat to make up for a 49 and change opening half.  The fig will be what it is, but I think as we move forward you have to factor the compression of this figure in when evaluating a colt\'s overall pattern.

Off the top of my head I think the final 1/8th of the the Wood was a strong one, 12.5 or so, into the wind.  And it should have been.

[miff]

\"People remember the ones that fit their theories\"

JB,

It is no \"theory\" that your scale and Beyers differ on the West Coast.There is empirical data in that regard,which does not determine which scale is more accurate,no science.

Mike

[TGJB]

Mike-- seriously? Comparing a) horses going 7f with those going 1 1/8th around 2 turns, b) older horses to 3yos, c) winner under 116 to 123?

[TGJB]

Absolutely correct, and absolutely irrelevant to this discussion, which is about whether our figures hold up. Shhhh.....

[jimbo66]

TGJB

This all seems like a reach.  The 1 1/8 is one around the track. Wind at their backs early in their face late.  Why use this to explain the raw slow time.

Those internal glacial splits become even incredulously slower if they were run with the wind at their backs.  

Running those splits early they sure should have come home fast.  

Glad to see a bunch of people finding ways to make the slow wood better.  Value for those that think slow is slow.

Meanwhile no posts about golden cents running a 105 Breyer and pulling away from a well thought of and perfect trip flashback.  

This years wood has the feel of the master David wood. Still waiting for somebody to win out of that one.   Although tapit has certainly become a helluva sire

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- nobody is relating the wind to the final time of the Wood, just to the final fraction (last eighth). But the only race you can compare the Wood to is the Gazelle, where, as I said yesterday, even dismissing the pace differentials, comes up about 3 points slower winner to winner, given time, weight, and ground.

[miff]

JB,

The point was strictly to illustrate that the wind was likely a wash, a constant for all runners.There is no way to explain Verranzano\'s ordinary overall time/performance when looking at his previous races, slow pace noted.He\'s supposed to separate from those horses from where he was and how slowly he was going early.

Mike

[mjellish]

Jimbo,

I agree with most of what you said.  Goldencents ran a nice race.  Likely to be overbet IMO considering the connections and what happened last year, plus the whole Louisville/Pitino thing.

But anyway, I wouldn\'t just discount the Wood though as a slow race.  Watch the replay close.  Johnny V rides Verrazano like he is the best colt from beginning to end.  He breaks sharp, secures wide position out in the clear.  The jock is looking back between his legs on the first turn and all the way down the backstrech, most likely to keep an eye on Vyjack.  As they hit the 2nd turn, Verrazano throws in a quick burst of speed to spurt away (disagree with opinions made that this is a big striding, non-athletic colt or comparisons to likes of Union Rags), then waits, then down the stretch he kicks away along with the other top 3.  They all finish strongly and are still pulling away from the field at the end.  He holds them all off.

That being said, I\'m not saying I like Verrazano to win in Louisville.  And I think that extra 1/8th may get him.  But to me what is important to note, and something the colt should get extra credit for, is he is showing that he is althletic and can adapt to win under different circumstances.  The Wood was run like a turf race, they crawled early and sprinted late.  We don\'t even need the teletimer to know this.  Just look at where Vyjack and NI where early in this race compared to where they usually are.  Ver showed he could adapt to this race shape and still win.  In the Tampa Derby, he was race ridden early and showed he could change gears in the first 1/4 mile of a race, change tactics, switch out, assume a stalking position close to a very honest pace, win the pace battle and still have enough to kick away from the field at the end.  Before that we already knew he could run fast early and finish stronger than most.  

This colt has gained some valuable seasoning over the past month and that is going to help him immensely.  Dunno about the 1 1/4, but I am not going to give him a negative mark because of the slow overall time of the Wood.  That just doesn\'t tell the whole story.

[mjellish]

Miff,

The top 3 do seperate from the rest of the field.  How much faster is Verrazano supposed to come home than 12.5 into a headwind?  Or put another way, if Vyjack and NI both come home fast as well after a slow early pace, why is that a negative to Verrazano?  He still held them off.