Impressions from CD backside this am

[covelj70]

So, I got to spend the Morning at Churchill this am.

Very sunny but very chilly morning.

For folks who haven\'t been to CD backside, there are various \"gaps\" where the horses go from the backside onto the track. The track folks typically call them the \"baffert gap\" or the \"Lucas gap\" based on which big name trainers barns are closest to those gaps.

For the best view of the breezes, you need to be on the front side. For the best/only view of the horses coming onto and off of the track, you need to be on the backside.

I always go to the backside as I like to see the horses coming off of the track and see who is holding their weight well and who is breathing heavy coming off of the track after the breeze, etc.

I was by the gap where all of the pletcher horses came on and off so I got a good look at the 5 pletchers and normandy invasion. I saw all of others on the track but I do not have really have a strong opinion on any others since I didn\'t see up close.  

The two by far that made the most favorable impression were Verazzano and palice malice. Verazzano couldnt have blown out a match after his breeze and he is carrying weight so well. He is the best looking horse I have seen since rock hard ten and he is thriving right now. Palice malice is the other who really impressed me in terms of the weight he is holding and his coat considering what he just went through.

The two least favorable impressions were Normandy invasion and revolutionary. NI is a small frail looking horse who doesn\'t carry alot of weight. Tough for me to back a horse who\'s that slight making his way through a 20 horse field. As of today, he\'s off all my tickets. Revolutionary is another very light framed horse and he was blowing hard after his work. I wasn\'t that impressed. Overanalyze definitely lost some weight compared to last weekend when i saw him in Arkansas but that is normal and i will be anxious to see if he regains the weight by next weekend when I am back. Charming kitten looks like a typical turf horse so nothing much else to say there.

Hope this is helpful to folks. As i always remind people, don\'t put all your eggs in one basket and rule a horse out on what anyone is saying about how they look and train.  I just try to find the ones I like anyway and confirm they seem to be coming into the race the right way.

[phil23]

Thanks for the up close observations. Very insightful.

[TreadHead]

Thx for sharing those thoughts Jim, and reports like that are exactly the reason I just don\'t see anyway Verrazano does not run his race, unless there is some underlying injury that is remaining very well hidden that ends up impacting his race.  

I get that running a big negative number so early usually spells doom for a horse, but there have been some cases where it does not, like Street Sense, Big Brown, and Smarty.  At least in terms of being able to do something big in the Derby.  If Verrazano runs his race, no one else will be close.

[alang]

Normandy Invasion has not seemed well since shipping to Churchill last week.

[vp612]

Well let me ask you this, will you play a horse that \"doesn\'t look good\" but has a very nice pattern?By the way I don\'t like NI or VZ.

[TGJB]

That\'s the right question, or one of them. It would obviously help to know how the horse looked in the past, too.

[covelj70]

VP,

I wanted to get back to you on your question.

There are obviously alot of factors involved but I would say 3 things

1) no, I would not play a horse that doesn\'t \"look good\" with a very nice pattern as long as I am making that judgement for myself and not trusting someone else.  I can live with my own error in judgement, I can\'t live with someone else\'s so if I like a horse, I tend to ignore most of the noise around the horse but if I have a chance to see a horse myself and form an opinion, I might eliminate that horse based on a physical

2) I would not rule a horse that isn\'t \"moving well\" as I have said a number of times on the board because vets can do alot of legal things to help a horse move better (I always use the Ice Box example) but I will absolutely rule out a horse that is as small and light as Normandy Invasion given his running style and the size of the field

3) If it was a small field, I would have no problem with his size or if he was a more forwardly placed horse, I wouldn\'t have a big problem with him but, just guessing, I would say Normandy Invasion weighs at least 100 pds less than the average horse in the Ky. Derby.  I just don\'t see any way he makes it through from the back of the pack without getting bumped and jostled many times and if he encounters any kind of bumping at all, he\'s going to get impacted by that given how light he is.

can he win?  sure he can, any of them can as a 20 horse field can and often does produce chaos and I think he\'s a nice horse who could be really good in a race like the Belmont as I have said on the board before but I am looking for reasons to eliminate horses when I think about this race and I will eliminate a very small closer in a 20 horse field everytime and live with it if I am wrong

hope this helps

[justwin]

Jim,
Always appreciate your input. I like Normandy\'s sheet and don\'t think coming from where he is that he will get bumped too much. most of the bumping occurs while getting position and out of the gate. he will likely drop back out of the gate. He will see the wall of horses in front of him and will need to find the path through or around. might be a tough trip but I don\'t expect a lot of bumping.

George

[miff]

\"might be a tough trip but I don\'t expect a lot of bumping\"

Just


It\'s not known as the Roller Derby for nothing,derby is rarely run without lots of bumping and banging.Often dismissed is what Jim brings up about physicality.You will RARELY see the top outfits, e.g. Baffy,TAP with many smallish type young ones in their barn.To a degree,size matters,only freaks transcend.

There is likely to be 5+horses totally eliminated within the first 1/16th of mile in the Derby. Just have to hope its not yours.


Mike

[pizzalove]

this is fantastic information!!  Thank you.  I wanted to tell you that I took a Keeneland trip last week and was in Louisville early to watch some horses.  I want your opinion on Black Onyx.  I didnt think much of his race record but I was startled by his appearance.  I dont think he looks like rock hard ten but he is a good size colt for sure and to me he looked gorgeous.  Reminds me in stature of Kris S or Storm Treasure.  Kind of like a buff George Clooney of racehorses.  Will he have that late run?

I dont think I am in your league when it comes to a horses appearance but I would love to know your take on how this horse looks.  He has been at louisville all april.

[justwin]

Miff,
totally agree but if Normandy drops back out of the gate it will avoid most of the bumping that is going on which tends to occur in that first 1/8. I see him & Java\'s War not dealing with most of the bumping as they will not be trying to get that early position out of the gate.

George

[covelj70]

Hey Pizza,

thanks for that

please don\'t give me too much credit.  there are people (like my racing manager for one) that forgot more in the 24 hrs about how to evaluate physical appearances than I will ever know.

I didn\'t get a chance to see Black Onyx over the weekend but I will be at CD all week next week and will definitely let everyone know if he stands out at all.

good luck

[TGJB]

No opinion on this, but I would be interested in seeing a list of horses eliminated by trouble in the Derby over the last 10 years or so. Lookin at Lucky and who else? And any who overcame it?

[miff]

George,

Only trying to suggest that its a more difficult task for a smaller horse to sustain a roughouse trip. There were many averaged sized, smaller horses who did very well at the top level.

Good Luck

Mike

[miff]

JB,

Since they went to the 20 horse format, there isnt enough room to accomodate both gates without post 1 and 2 runners heading smack into the rail if they break and go straight. With that,you have the inside angling outward and of course, all the outside angling in to avoid being caught wide on the turn.

Don\'t have numbers but you will always hear some connections saying they got sawed off, pinched or whatever right out of the gate. It would be interesting to see the slow motion head ons of the past derbies to see just what damage is done early on.

Mike