Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> Very interesting.....Cannot wait to see how his
> horses run the week he is there. I might just
> throw him out of the pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s
> entirely on the Derby....that eliminates 25% of
> the field including possible fav. But I have to
> see how he does with his entrants that week and
> the day before in the Oaks.
Fairmount:
Lets look at Verazzano, Orb and Itsmyluckyday thorographically, without, of
course, disclosing proprietary information.
Orb: ran two consecutive fast races at GP.
IMLD: ran three consecutive fast races at GP.
Verrazano: ran three consecutive fast races over three different tracks.
One way to look at this is to say, speculatively, that Orb and/or IMLD would have
hung up fast TG #s if they had been given the opportunity to run over a surface
other than GP.
Is it fair to say that Verrazano has a better chance than Orb or IMLD of
maintaining/improving his form at CD because he has already run fast at three
different tracks? To distill the question further, is there more uncertainty about
Orb and IMLD\'s ability to replicate their GP form at CD?
The \"undercard\" theory, which ties the likelihood of a runner\'s success in a
featured race to the success of the trainer\'s previous runners on the day, needs
to be renamed, because now you say to watch Pletcher\'s runners during
the entire week leading up to the Derby.
So if DOJ bounces in the Oaks, but still turns in the second fastest TG # ever
assigned to a 3YO filly, is that a positive or negative indicator of how TAP\'s
Derby crew will run?
