Getting close enough to offer some pre post draw don\'t know what the weather
will be thoughts on the Derby. Since my main focus will be picking a small
herd of horses to use in the horizontals, I do not pressure myself, pre race,
to definitively make a single pick and stand by him. Having thus hedged, here
goes:
Orb: Logical off the TG data, number and pattern wise. Came to hand rather
alarmingly at GP this winter, obviously flourishing at Palm Meadows and loving
the GP surface. Looked awesome going into the Fla Derby, and if he maintains
his edge at CD he is an obvious contender at odds of 3/1 or so. Strongest point
for me is the man who will be saddling him. Shug has been a private trainer
for an owner who has not historically pushed colts into the Derby, but a Derby
win would mean quite a bit to this Lexington, KY product, who is right up
there with Mott and Allen Jerkens (two other Derby infrequent flyers) as the
best horsemen I have seen in nearly 40 years of racing.
Overanalyze: I think 2YO experience is a key in Derby handicapping. Overanalyze
not only has that experience, but also put up some fast TG#s as a juvenile.
TAP very satisfied with his quick Saturday breeze. TG data says the dam of
Overanalyze has not been overly productive, and the only full sibling was
rather pokey TG wise. St Louis Tgenerate Fairmount thinks this one could be
off at odds of 20/1, but hard to believe that a TAP trained Ark Derby winner
will be allowed off at that odds.
Itsmyluckyday: Extensive 2YO foundation, two very fast TG#s at Hallandale as a
3YO. The ratio of likely high odds 16/1, 18/1, 20/1 (?) to low TG#s makes this
one a must play TG wise given a good week of preparation at CD.
Revolutionary: Has the 2YO foundation and some fast TG #s as a 2YO, though not
as fast as Overanalyze. SW AP Indy dam a plus. Calvin hurts the price a bit,
and this one has been favored in all lifetime starts. Should be between 10 -15/1 on Derby day.
Frac Daddy: A must use for me only because I was alive with him in a large P4
on Ark Derby day (a P4 I was only alive in because the Arapahoe Park based
Colorado bred shipper who won the Northern Spur looked very good off TG data).
Has the 2YO foundation, reportedly doing very well at CD, but honestly using
him strictly for mental health reasons.
