You know what?

[TGJB]

There\'s about a 50/50 chance they don\'t get 20 with points entered. Which would mean Pletcher could go with DOJ, and I would have to redo a lot of seminar work.

My guess he does not, already has a bunch for the Derby.

[magicnight]

Kind of ironic in that - after all of the \"earn your way in\" hubbub - we may still have room for one from the Alfredo Callejas barn.

[TGJB]

So basically Jim didn\'t have to run all over the country with Falling Sky to qualify, he could have just rolled out of bed and walked him over.

[covelj70]

Hah. Good one JB. If we would have known all that, I might have gotten some sleep in the last month.

Too much to ask for a complete mess of a track like we had for the smarty/lion heart derby?

[jimbo66]

Jim,

I would much prefer the smarty/lion track than the track they had Saturday night.  The bias numbers I saw were the most skewed towards closers and killing \"brilliance\", than I have seen in 4 months, at any major track.

[covelj70]

Yeah, we are running a bunch on oaks and derby day and they are all front runners so a track like that could make for a bad week for me.

It has every right to change between now and Friday though, lets hope it does.

[vp612]

Let me know who are running on derby day.I bet Falling Sky and I am trying to get even.

[TGJB]

DEAD SERIOUS-- Jim, you need to raise the issue publicly. That will get CD\'s attention.

After the last big day dead rail at CD I got hold of top BC people, where I do have some friends, and raised the issue. They have stayed on top of it since, even checking with me after the races to see if there was one. But I have no hook with the Derby people or CD. You have a horse in the race, start squawking.

[plasticman]

Jerry, as a figuremaker, i would guess that you would prefer an even track over a dead rail. But, would you prefer a gold rail over a dead rail? Also, as a HANDICAPPER, i personally prefer a dead rail over a gold rail as the dead rail days tend to produce  better tote prices.

Strictly as a handicapper, i would  NEVER complain to a track to make that dead rail go away. Not only can i key off outside stalkers in my bets, but my notes for future days are helped by a bias that probably won\'t exist next time those horses run.

Wacky biases are great for diligent note taking.

[TGJB]

To the degree I believe the rail is better (extremely infrequent, it\'s just usually ground loss, though the old Kee was sometimes an exception) that\'s preferable because at least you have some idea who will be on it.

[jimbo66]

Plastic,

It is a bigger issue than \"dead rail\".  Saturday\'s track at Churchill was a \"dead track\".  Anything that expended energy early was not around at the finish.  If the rail was also dead, this makes it worse.

As a handicapper, I don\'t want to play on that kind of track, ever. How about a \"fair track\"?  Too much to ask?  At Churchill, sure.

Yes, NEXT TIME out, horses that quit in stretch Saturday night at Churchill are play backs and hopefully at overlaid odds.  But you really want the track crew to shit the bed on Oaks and DErby day so you can play horses back the following time out?

Yes, it provides \"bigger mutuels\", but it creates unpredictable results, which defeats the purpose of being a handicapper and having an \"opinion\" worth betting on.  Unless you want to say diagnosing this condition and going \"long volatility\" on results is handicapping.

That type of track can lead to a Drosselmeyer to win the Breeder\'s Cup Classic....

[Silver Charm]

Jim my take is its going to rain, just exactly where, for how long and how much who knows. I have friends who have horses in also and have been waiting for months and a family party with people coming and going....it is what it is.

No doubt the track will change. And I would be careful playing there early in the week. On Oaks and Derby the Track Crew better bring their A-Game....people are counting on it.

[plasticman]

Jimbo,
Playing horses back is huge for me, since i\'m in this for the long haul. If i can gather some information that will help me profit in a few weeks, its as good as getting information that can help me profit today. Today or 3 weeks from now, its all the same for me, its a long process.

A fair track is fine, but for me, i\'d much prefer a track that speed gets tired if it gets pressed. Most bettors hammer down the speed, front runners or pace pressers are usually shorter prices than horse who figure to be 5/10 lengths behind in the early calls. If those deep closers can rally to win, there\'s a chance they can pay longshot prices.

For me, i would rather have bigger mutuels an unpredictable results than shorter mutuels and predictable results.

If a race is \'predictable\' it might be predictable for too many other people. Since i\'m playing against other people, i\'d prefer that those other people have trouble \'predicting\' outcomes...that gives me a fighting chance to make a score if i can somehow determine that a certain 20-1 shot is going to hit the board and create a large exotic payout.

[TGJB]

Interesting post. Chaos Theory related?

[Fairmount1]

Any thoughts on the track the last two days jimbo?  I\'ve been unable to watch but have reviewed the charts.  It seems the track was still ever so slightly slanted away from speed save the baby race.  And yesterday it looked very fair with two deep closers and a few very close to the pace winners.  

I couldn\'t discern rail issues or whether it would be what you classify a \"dead\" track from the charts.  

As for the Drosselmeyer result:  I\'ve been at Churchill a few times during their night racing as well as that night.  It sure seemed obvious that track become dead that night after it was pretty dark and I feel like that has happened on the Downs at Dark Programs a time or two also.