The weather makes expecting a certain track surface a tricky prospect here. The front that is dumping a foot of snow on Denver today is supposedly going to stall out to such an extent that it wont even move thru KY until after the Oaks.
As long as the track is still dry and rain has not moved in yet on Friday, I think it is a safe bet that it will be tiring, as it was last Sat. Yesterday/Today have been a bit mixed, I think it is safe to call it \"fair\". If there is a slight bias toward closer, I agree with all the points you made and think this horse has a real shot to get into the tri under those conditions.
The move back to 2yr old top range, while racing on a surface she really doesn\'t prefer, is a huge plus in my eyes. Throw in the first lasix and a nice new top is definitely possible. But it will need to be a pretty big one to compete with these.