One snake to jump for Orb

[big18741]

I wasn\'t being critical of Court in the Derby.
That was just bad racing luck.

I just like Smith on a closer in general and I think he\'s a better finisher than Court.Preakness will have some pace-WTC is a closer and Smith can get one going with that lefthanded whip in the stretch.

As for Itsmyluckyday I don\'t think the change means that much for a horse that probably doesn\'t want to go a step past 8.5f\'s.

[mbeychok]

Great points Jimbo. this race is almost unbettable not because of the ORB factor but because who in the hell do you put underneath him if you do expect him to win. And I expect him to win. Nearly every one of \'em has some serious questions of form that make it tough to bet real money on. The most reliable of them - Departing - is probably slowest and they haven\'t said whether they will race with Lasix or not. He was 1st lasix in Ill Derby.

Just a tough race to lay down real money in my opinion.

Unless you have a strong opinion on IMLD to circle back to something close to his top. If that is the case, then the race becomes extremely bettable and there is money to be won.

But, I just can\'t make that call on IMLD. I think it is a tossup really whether he runs his figure/or close to it or just doesn\'t run - like in the derby.

tough call.

Michael

[Rick B.]

vp612 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> if I can\'t find anyone ,there are 8 other
> stakes and 4 other tracks for me to look at.

I\'ve watched more than one Preakness without having
a single nickel bet on it.

Don\'t try to invent value where none exists, and I
have to say, the idea espoused here at times to bet
against a favorite for no other reason than said
favorite \"will be an underlay\" is simply one of the
worst pieces of handicapping advice I\'ve ever read.

[FrankD.]

Michael,

The Orb/IMLD exacta was very appealing here as well in a 12 horse field. The defections of Normandy & Vyjak now make it maybe a $20.00 exacta at best.

I\'ll be looking for prices on the other 3 legs of the pick 4.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[mjellish]

To be honest, on paper I don\'t even think Orb looks like a bounce candidate.  He has run on 2 weeks rest before and moved forward.  He didn\'t make a big forward move in the derby.  He paired his top.  The way he won was much easier than it looked.  This colt was goofing off and looking at the crowd down the stretch for 50 yards after he made the lead.  He finished with his ears pricked straight up in the air as if he could go around again.  He was not all out in the Derby.  His workout today was pretty amazing (watch the NYRA video), and if he comes out of it good and settles in at Pimlico I think even money is about fair, but he probably goes off at less than that and I wouldn\'t bet him to win anyway.  

I wish NI was going here as I think he was a strong bet against in the verticals.  Don\'t really like Goldencents or IMLD here either but it wouldn\'t be a total shock to me if one of the two ran better with a decent trip, especially on the front end, although I think there is enough early speed in here to make for a decent pace.  The Lukas colt, WTC, lost all chance in the Derby when Verrazano bore out and made him check off heels.  He\'s a huge colt, 17 hands, and not althletic at all but he has a big run in him once he gets moving and he was moving with Orb until the trouble.  He may have been able to get all the way up for second in Derby without the trouble.  Then again, he may have flattened out.  Nonetheless, there may be some value there with him underneath in the verticals if you take a position against Gold and IMLD.  And there may be some value in the horizontals with Orb as a single.  Otherwise it looks like a pass race to me because unless something changes with Orb at Pimlico I wouldn\'t bet a dime against him.

[vp612]

I don\'t quite understand what your saying about ORB\'S forward moves.He has run 4 times this year and improved 9-1/2 points THE moves were bigger before, but in the derby the forward progress stopped and he paired his top.What that means to me is that he has reached the end of the line (for now) and with 2 weeks rest coming in my read is that he reacts and backs up.COULD he go forward ,sure he could, anything is possible but they are not machines and at some point the progress stops.

[mjellish]

I get it Vito.  He\'s developed a lot since 2.  But he\'s also won 5 in a row and to me its a percentage thing. He wasn\'t all out to win the Derby.  He goofed off down the lane, ears pricked straight up in the air.  Galloped out well.  Ate up that night.  He\'s held his weight.  His workout today was incredible.  He galloped out 5f and 6f faster than anyone else worked.  Rider never moved, he did all on his own.  Watch the video.  So what percentage would you say he is to bounce?

Now he could come out of his work and start to go the other way.  And he could have a rough trip.  But to me, as of right now he\'s as sure of a thing as it gets.  And I\'m not going to waste my money trying to beat him unless something changes because he does\'t have to bounce.  In fact, it\'s pretty unlikely IMO.

And to me, that means someone else needs to move forward a fair amount to beat him unless you like IMLD to get back to his top, which was at a shorter distance.

[Wrongly]

Couldn\'t agree more with your last comment.  Tossing IMLD again.

[jimbo66]

Vito

I don\'t think orb is going to run a new top in the Preakness.  But he also doesn\'t need to, unless somebody really moves up or itsmuluckyday gets back to his top and gets a better trip than orb.  I personally make itsmuluckyday 10-1 to run the negative 2.  No science, but that is my line.   Since nobody else has run close to orb, that makes him 90 percent to win for me, if he pairs.   Based on the works, the trainer and the way he won the derby I have him 50 percent to pair, which is 90 percent to win.  6-5ish.

On my line that makes this race a pass.   Now, those that know me on the board would make it 90 percent to lack the discipline to pass the Preakness, so I will have to invent a bet!!

The early glance at the pps for the policy special make it the worst field I have seen for that race in awhile.  Have to see how it is bet, if the public are dumb enough to make Richards kid the favorite, maybe the pimlico special Preakness double could be ok

Jim

[TGJB]

Keeping from jumping into this conversation is making my tongue bleed. Preakness will be ROTW.

[SoCalMan2]

On the question of Orb\'s improvement....how do we deal with when he first got lasix?  I do not know the answer to this....BUT....if he was on Lasix all the time....i would think he is at the end of the line and do for a regression.  I am not sure whether when he got lasix should change this interpretation or not.  Any thoughts?

[P-Dub]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> vp612 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > if I can\'t find anyone ,there are 8 other
> > stakes and 4 other tracks for me to look at.
>
> I\'ve watched more than one Preakness without
> having
> a single nickel bet on it.
>
> Don\'t try to invent value where none exists, and
> I
> have to say, the idea espoused here at times to
> bet
> against a favorite for no other reason than said
> favorite \"will be an underlay\" is simply one of
> the
> worst pieces of handicapping advice I\'ve ever
> read.


Rick,

Couldn\'t have said it any better.

I know its a big race, but its alright to pass.

[vp612]

I don\'t think you understood me.What I am saying is I think ORB at 3/5 is a bad bet and if I can\'t find someone that I think can beat him (at the right odds)I will look at other races,I don;t have to bet the preakness.

[SoCalMan2]

One way to handle a situation like people are talking about with Orb in the Preakness is the following ....

1) make horizontal wagers using a wide spread of horses in the preakness (but not Orb).....presumably, Orb will be very overbet in the horizontal pools and if you beat him, you will get a good payout.

2) in the vertical Preakness wagers, single Orb in the top spot and strictly look for value underneath.

On one hand, your two bets are working against each other.  However, it is a way to deal with the conundrum of the horse being overbet but worried he may still win. In the vertical wagers, a lot of money will be thrown away on Orb running second or third....if you only single Orb in the top spot, you are shooting to get the money of the people who put Orb underneath, plus value you can find in other horses.  I guess you can look at this sort of play as a hedge.

However, I have found myself in situations like this before where I know the 3-5 is just crazy and I cannot find a way to capitalize on it.  Just remember, they all get beat.  I have seen plenty of can\'t loses lose.  I understand everybody saying he looks so good, but change is the only constant and it doesn\'t matter how good he looked in the Derby or the two weeks leading up to it, all that matters is how he runs on saturday afternoon.

[vp612]

Bravo,and easily,handily,speed to spare,all nonsense,he ran what he ran and he ran very well from the 16.This is a different race and 3/5 on a horse that \'\'should react\'\'is crazy.