Thoughts on Sham?

[ajkreider]

Interested to hear what others thought of the Sham (besides the ridiculous payouts).  Final time stacks up well compared to the older horse routes (including some nice stakes horses), but they were slowing down in a big way.  

I think it gets a decent TG fig, but perhaps not as good as it looks on paper.

[Tavasco]

My thought is the first two finishers each bounced. The winner was wide (MS) on both turns and I doubt Kristo, (the runner up) wants any part of the winner in the future.

Curious that Hollendorfer scratched in a race that appeared to set up well for his late runner?

I can\'t help but notice 25K claimers went a mile two seconds faster a couple of races later. Albeit on turf, and they were 4 y/o\'s+ I don\'t know about the wind, cushion, etc but the claimers did carry +3 pounds.

In the stakes for older Blueskiesandrainbows ran about the same mile time after getting a half 1.5 seconds slower and then ran on well for another 1/16. This race looked strange because most all of the trailing horses were wide on both turns and on the backstretch. Is there a dead inside or rail?

I saw the race as slow, none of the contestants with any real future beyond 7F. The TG staff may be aware of aberrant conditions and maybe the weather/conditions triggered the two scratches.

Mike Smith says he\'s now convinced Midnight Hawk can route. I sort of have to take that with a grain of salt as his judgement is questionable after all he gave up the mount on Chantal. Note - this is a stupid joke and meant only as a compliment to the good looks of the lady.

10 Derby points is 10 Derby points! This one is still alive and earning money and that is good.

If you are a Baffert fan have you seen the story below.

Baffert Hammered

[Tavasco]

After looking at the TG #\'s It seems reasonable to swag Blueskiesandrainbows ran about 3 again.

The Turf claimers swag 5-6 with #5 saving all the ground maybe a 7.

Midnight Hawk (IMHO) regressed to 7-10.

Geez I hadn\'t realized how fast the Top Fortitude colt was. He ran a 1 first out! He may be broken all ready. A one! that\'s crazy.

[Rick B.]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike Smith says he\'s now convinced Midnight Hawk
> can route. I sort of have to take that with a
> grain of salt as his judgement is questionable
> after all he gave up the mount on Chantal. Note -
> this is a stupid joke and meant only as a
> compliment to the good looks of the lady.

If it\'s funny, you\'re not in trouble.

[miff]

Beyer of 95 for Midnight Hawk,hardly regressed.More like a TG 3-4.

[jimbo66]

TaVasco,

You are the early leader in the clubhouse for worst post race analysis of 2014.  (Sorry if that sounds mean)

U really want to compare the final times to turf races on the same day?   That is a first for this board.

They went a faster than par pace because it was a 2 horse race and both jockeys knew it.   So they slowed down a bit late as should be expected.   They ran as fast early in their 3 year old year as an established grade 2/3 stakes horse, who is razor sharp form, did on the same day. (And same surface)

If u really think those two horses, with their pedigrees, after watching that race, are really meant for 7 furlongs or shorter, I don\'t know what to tell u, other than good luck

Both horses have a future at classic distances.   The one small chink, relative to his derby chances, is that the winner is a tactically inclined horse that doesn\'t break well at times and will be breaking in a 20 horse field if he gets to the derby.  A bad gate break could be fatal there.  

Jim

[ColonelShillito]

I\'m not necessarily sold on Midnight Hawk\'s prospects at getting 10 furlongs in May -- just yet. The book is still out on his sire, Midnight Lute. Although he has already sired a Queen\'s Plater winner, Midnight Aria and Mylute placed in the Louisiana Derby, etc. However, mama (Miss Wineshine) was very precocious as a baby, racing at Churchill and Lone Star before knocking heads with the big girls in the Adirondack and Spinaway Stakes.

In the Spinaway, she finished 3rd behind Circle of Life and Surfside (Pletcher and Lukas). So without a doubt, she was very classy. With that said, her Spinaway performance was the last of her career, so she never proved herself beyond being a sprinter.

If Hawk can stretch out, then the sky is the limit, but I would not be shocked to see this one, based on pedigree, excel at one mile and no more.

[plasticman]

Midnight Lute had a breathing problem or else he might have been a route horse. He has a reputation as a sprinter, but might be able to sire some horses who are long fused. Something to keep in mind.