I find the complaints about GP speed bias yesterday interesting

[TGJB]

I don\'t just do it off the top two. But the point is if the vast majority of speed horses ran better relative to their tops than the vast majority of closers, you might read something into that.

As a general rule speed horses have less ground loss, especially at GP with the short stretch. On days with big fields that\'s a real issue.

[covelj70]

makes sense but I know the top 2 will play a key role in setting the figs for that race in particular because they were so fast going in and they won by alot.

[TreadHead]

It wouldn\'t be February without Jimbo\'s annual \"Risen Star Sucks!  Toss!!\" post....

Here was last year\'s version
https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,77382,77408#msg-77408

And for those with short memories, last year\'s version contained Palace Malice, Oxbow, Golden Soul, Normandy Invasion, and Code West.

Just messin\' with ya Jimbo, hope no offense taken!

[jimbo66]

Tread,

And, as i recall, none of those horses made the triple in the Derby......

Of course they achieved more later on.

And no offense taken.

[TreadHead]

For the record, Golden Soul finished 2nd and NI 4th, that\'s half the super.  And 2 of the others from that race won the Preakness and Belmont.  And the Code West also became a graded stakes winner.

[jimbo66]

Belmont,

Kudos to you in that it sounds like you used East Hall.  I hope you cashed big in the race.

That said, the methodology you are using in your post, that being Thorograph figs are the end all in analyzing a race, is just not a good one.  (sorry to you and the host).

I use the product and have posted here a long time.  But, looking at a figure in isolation, without the context of how it was earned, factoring bias, pace, trip, etc.etc is a path to disaster.  i am not sure what the path to success is, but I know it ain\'t that.

Despite the fact that TGJB had East Hall faster than Top Billing in his last race, how many takers would there have been on a match up bet of East Hall vs Top Billing?  I guess before the race you would have taken that bet, since he was \"faster\"?  Not saying he wasn\'t a great use at the odds offered, that is a different proposition completely.  (don\'t want to get into a pissing match, but TGJB\'s figures for Top Billing are certainly very debatable, especially relative to some other 3 year old TG figures - but that is not for today)

And as to your last sentence, I wish things were that simple..........

Jim

[jimbo66]

Tread,

If I had the time or the inclination, I would dig up your posts about the second coming of Secretariat, Verrazano.  Best of his crop, a \"great\" horse, etc.etc.  

yes, if never looked in the eye, he was decent.

Tough game, worse odds than baseball where 3 out of 10 is hall of fame.  

We can all look bad with opinions.

How is your memory of that Derby last year?  one of us posted in March that Orb was going to win......

Jim

[TGJB]

All I know is if East Hall had gotten third I would have made an awful lot of money. Tossed TB at the price, wasn\'t happy when he made it to the rail by the first turn.

[TreadHead]

Well, Unless I\'m mistake Verrazano did run the fastest 3yr old fig of any male last year in a G1 race (or any other race, for that matter), so while you can certain question his brittleness and consistency, it\'s tough to question his ability.  And I did not pick him to win the Derby, I just did not land on Orb until a couple days before the race, unlike you.

That said, yes there are many more wrong opinions than right ones in this game, I\'m the first to admit it.  I just found extreme irony in how wrong your opinion on the Risen Star was last year and yet you came back with pretty much exactly the same one this year, and that struck me as funny.  No harm intended, it was just entertaining.

Looking forward to hearing your opinions, and others, again this year.

[Topcat]

Last race on the card was classic case . . .

[miff]

So, fwiw, the bias guys had GP off the charts for speed on Sat calling the surface \"intensely inside speed favoring\".Their formula takes lots of things into account and they adjust for much the best wires where the winner lays over going in(usually short priced chalk)

One note, you will rarely see two horses routing, at that level,going fairly quickly, head to head the entire race and finish that way.In a scenario like that, I would tend to discount somewhat that the 2 top ones were fastest going in.You can count on one hand the number of races you will see with those dynamics where the leaders survive much less run 1,2.

Top Billing kinda evened out late, with a great set up in front of him, carrying a few less pounds than the top two embattled leaders, maybe needed one.

Don\'t get the \"no speed bias\"...looked like, played like, acted like giant inside speed bias.

[covelj70]

Miff,

leaving the bias/non bias argument aside for a minute

what\'s your best guess for Top Billing ran on Sat?

saved ground, was getting weight, finished well back of top 2.

I was assuming a pair but I have seen others speculate much faster.

You are our resident expert on these things as I know you have a great database/algorithm but totally understand if you would rather not share.

thanks

[TreadHead]

Miff, you sound exactly like everyone last year who complained about the Risen Star.  I kept hearing over and over again this dumbed down argument that the race could not possibly have been good because of the 7-horse blanket finish.

This is quite simply, ridiculous, as the future results of the Risen Star horses showed.

I\'m more than open to the idea that MANY times when there is a blanket finish or a two horse speed duel all the way around the track that it could mean the quality of the race was in question.  But for people to just apply that judgement like a blanket every time it happens in a knee-jerk reaction to say they all suck without looking deeper at the data and the results is simply lazy, I\'m not sure what other word to use.

I\'m also not trying argue that there was zero bias at all last Sat, but I think it was far less pronounced than people are making it out to be.  The best 2 horses on paper won the race, the two absolute trailers early in the race finished 3rd and 4th.  Jim mentioned Normandy Invasion.  There is just not the right kind of data to suggest the track was trumped up as big as everyone is making it out to be or that it was carrying horses that should not have been winning races to victory.

[Wrongly]

Jim

How many Derby winners have run a zero in February?  I can tell you there have been some over hyped fast figure run by three year olds in February that finished far up the track on the first Saturday in May.  If your focused on futures then March isn\'t the worst time of year to put down a wager.  The Gotham, Rebel or the Spiral Stake might have some to prove to us.  Who knows, you might fall in love with a Extrasexyhippzter before the weekend is over.

[miff]

Thread,

You have ZERO contra to the inside speed track bias,on the other hand all dirt winners wired along the fence except a 1-5 shot that stalked toward the inside and overwhealmed his competition.People with good credentials that specialize in scoping out biases believe the track was inside speed biased,as I do, draw your own conclusions.

The Risen Star last year is irrelevant as to who did what out of the race,as well may be the case with this years FOY. Many top 3 yr olds out of TC preps preps go on to something \"fast\" eventually, take a look historically.

Most, not all, blanket finishes, is normally NOT a race to write home about, fig wise.Does not mean there isnt a runner out of there that goes on to do something \"fast\" soon thereafter.

Speaking of the Risen Star this year, Beyer thinks it was ok giving it a 97(like TG 2) I did not like the race but the first two did separate by 5+lenghts from the rest.

Mike