Read the Footnotes

[bdhsheets]

Later this week, we\'ll learn his FOY fig via the Derby Future bet II and/or Fl Derby. I\'m speculating it may have been in the -2 range. He\'s already fast enough to win the Roses a -0.5 in the Remsen.

If Dick Violette had the stones [virtually impossible with an easy, in his eyes, $600k to pocket] he\'d pass on the Fl Derby and keep RTF off the track until the Illini Derby as a tune-up for Ky. Short rest off a huge effort may set this young 3yo back for a long time. Throw in another tough customer to battle, Value Plus and their Derby dreams may go up in smoke.

Perhaps RTF\'s success will inspire owners of stoutly bred mares to bring them to Smoke Glacken, who just may turn out to be something special.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Fact is Smoke is a grandson of Prospector and Prospector is a better distance influence in his sons and grandsons. If I were looking for a nice horse, I wouldn\'t be the least bit dissuaded by Smoke Glacken being the sire.

I tend to agree with you on the race timing, but also believe Violette is in the best position to know his horse and its clear the horse is happy at Hallandale. But you\'re point is carefully noted.

[HP]

Violette is very sharp, but this horse has no shot in the Derby. I only wish there was a \"bet against\" pool. Hopefully he\'ll run well in the Florida Derby and create more value elsewhere. HP

[jbelfior]

HP--

I agree. I expect RTF to run very well this Saturday. Most horses that run well in the FOY usually repeat the effort in the FLA. Derby.

With that said, we\'re talking 2 consecutive solid efforts off the layoff. It\'s hard to imagine RTF backing off in his April race and then improving to an even better top on May 1st.(which he\'ll probably need to win the KY Derby).

Not saying it cannot happen ( I believe THUNDER GULCH was able to do it), but I\'m not even thinking about RTF wearing the Roses right now.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[bdhsheets]

HP:

Why?

There are at least 400 TC nominees with a lesser chance to wear the Roses. The only clunker he\'s run, the Champagne, he reportedly flipped his palate. The following races seem to support that.

There are plenty of stamina influences in his pedigree and won the 9f Remsen in fine fashion, with a fig, for the time being, that lays over the field.

No doubt that I\'ve been in the too fast too early camp, but I\'m beginning to wonder. Just maybe, he\'s something really, really special.

Fl Derby: the key is not to battle with Frisky and VP on the front end; show some tractability and ability to sit chilly and move in the lane. If he does, you may be watching a TC winner.



Post Edited (03-10-04 14:36)

[HP]

Why?

He\'s too fast, too early! What\'s \"special\" about him? Another frontrunner with dubious pedigree. This year\'s Harlan\'s Holiday, except I think RTF is even less likely to be there in the stretch at the big dance. The last few years I\'ve been much better at picking the losers in the Derby than the winners. I\'ll vote early on RTF as a loser. Sorry Mr. V. HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I don\'t know that RTF\'s pedigree is dubious. Shaniko is  an A.p. Indy and he effectively put the brakes on in his last two races after 8 marks. RTF won impressively at 2 yrs old at 9 marks when many colts that age have problems with 6. He also ran a very impressive number in the FOY in my estimation. To this point the only number I\'m aware of is Beyer\'s, but I thought it was run in the best racehorse time.

The problem is Hallandale. If I had a top 3 year old I\'m not sure I\'d want to drill the speed into him that is necessary to take races like the FOY and Florida Derby. Its a very strange track and many times you can\'t leave a horse to skip along on the front because if you do he may not stop. If he\'s out there and you have to push to run him down that can be bad for the long term. Look what the FOY appears to have done: Knock Second of June and Silver Wagon from the Triple Crown trail and cause Sir Oscar to bleed significantly. I think RTF needs two more races pre Derby, I\'m just not sure I\'d make the Florida Derby one of them, but its a big pot o\' gold and its hard to pass up. The upside is that RTF likes the track and if Frisky and Value Plus both run, I\'d be comfortable with running there. It\'s up to Violette he hasn\'t made any mistakes til this point so I\'m not gonna second guess him just yet. If I were looking to win the Derby with him though, I wouldn\'t be terribly upset if he lost the Florida Derby in competitive fashion and geared up a bit more for the next one. Essentially you have to season your horse in the winter. Where are you gonna go, Santa Anita and listen to Trevor Demond shrill at your horse?

CtC

[HP]

Trevor Denman (sp?) is the best. There\'s a children\'s show \"Stanley\" and Stanley\'s sidekick is a fish that sounds just like Trevor, so when the show is on and my kids are watching it I can imagine I\'m at the track. Works for me. HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well I appreciate the spelling update. I\'ve never seen / or paid attention to his name in print. Denman? O.k.

Whats the fish\'s name?

Maybe Trevor is moonlighting.

lol

Re: Fountain of Youth day, I noticed a significant split variant in the Racing Form for one turn vs two turn races. I\'m almost afraid to know what T-Graph assigned for the Fountain.

CtC



Post Edited (03-12-04 03:03)