Wicked Strong

[Holybull1]

Care to list them all?

[louisvilleguy1111]

Miff, if trainers don\'t ship bad, horse do why does every major handicapping including TG have the trainers shipping percent listed as a stat for gamblers to look at?

Just wondering what your theory on that may be?

11% shipping 8% graded stakes. I know it\'s wallpaper to you but to me it a red flag to be careful using this horse on top come Derby day.

[miff]

Lou,

I\'ll make it simple. The name of the trainer shipping a horse for this race is irrelevant.How a horse mentally/physically ships, his overall ability vs the competition affects the win % greatly. Stats don\'t tell you about a sharp trainer shipping to easy spots where his horses will dominate.Its about sharp placement, not shipping.TG puts a lot of little factoids as part of being the most comprehensive product for those who place value in it.

Derby is unique, for example TAP is a \"prolific\" ship trainer generally but is 1-38 shipping in for derbies. What trainer is a \"derby\" shipper? Answer none, therefore the trainers shipping % is irrelevant in this race.

Mike

[miff]

JB,

You can\'t be serious. Sell that elsewhere, anyone with a clue know a it\'s all about placement of the horse being shipped, trainer irrelevant.Sharp trainers ship to ez spots and won\'t ship a horse who just won\'t perform out of his comfort zone.Ship win % without a filter makes nice wallpaper.

Mike

[pizzalove]

Wow!  That is shocking to me.  I really felt (and hoped) the odds would be much lower.

[phil23]

Tho they don\'t give away free money, in my experience, off shores also don\'t have a clue when it comes to derby. They\'re just opening it up and booking it based on bets (imagine that, what a concept), not based on their opinion or any special foreknowledge.

[louisvilleguy1111]

Thanks for making it simple for me. I have a hard time understanding these complicated things in horse racing. Things such as stats that are legit when your handicapping and stats that are there but really do not count those things are hard for me to separate. Geez!!

But if you think I am going to just ignore stats from the past in a game that is based on past stats your crazy. The stats are there for a reason and what that stat shows is Jimmy Jerkins is not a strong trainer shipping from the friendly confines of his NY home, simple a that. Not to mention his graded stakes percentage is awful. That is all...

[jbelfior]

From my personal point of view (besides \"getting an ugly girl to marry you\")if you didn\'t have him at 9-1 in a distance challenged field at Aqueduct, why get on his 7-1 bandwagon in a stronger field?

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Joe,

Like the logic.  But need a clarification.

how about if you \"had him at 9-1 in the Wood\", but \"lost him\" when Dad\'s Caps, a horse you had bet in his previous 4 races and watched him spit up the lead late, actually holds on and ruins all your pick-4 tickets.  

Can you then use him as a \"saver\" in the Derby....

[jbelfior]

I hear you Jim. Caps put Strapping Groom away for fun. Go figure. Crazy game.
No confidence in Jerkens(felt the same way about the old man) away from NY.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

Uh, Mike-- after saying trainers don\'t matter, in the next breath, you said some choose to van, not fly, because it avoids dehydration. That\'s a choice. And I\'m sure it\'s not the only one.

[moosepalm]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> JB,
>
> You can\'t be serious. Sell that elsewhere, anyone
> with a clue know a it\'s all about placement of the
> horse being shipped, trainer irrelevant.Sharp
> trainers ship to ez spots and won\'t ship a horse
> who just won\'t perform out of his comfort
> zone.Ship win % without a filter makes nice
> wallpaper.
>
> Mike

Miff, how can the trainer be irrelevant when he\'s the one responsible for the placement?  It isn\'t just the mechanics of the shipping you\'re evaluating, it\'s his/her judgment.  I agree that it\'s a limited stand alone stat, and particularly limited for the Derby, where there\'s no shopping around for the \"best spot,\" as those Pletcher numbers support (though there are other factors contributing to those numbers, as well).  However, in day-to-day handicapping, they can give you a little bit more evidence on who are the sharp guys in moving horses around.  As to your point about using a filter, I absolutely agree, but isn\'t that true about most of the stats we look at?

[richiebee]

I am leaning to excluding WS from the Horizontal Derby Herd.

Isn\'t WS what some would call a \"one number\" horse? All of the attention on
this colt is based on his Wood win/big new top. None of his other 5 lifetime
races would give him a chance to be in the top 12 in this Derby field. Hard
for me to take this one as a second favorite.

WS 10/6³/6³/11/7/neg 1/?^?
IH 8²/6³/6³/6²/6²/neg 0²/2

Kapeech? yes its two individual runners trained by different individuals, but
would not be surprised if WS retreated a couple of TG points in the Derby,
much the way that IH regressed after his big forward move in the Risen Star.

Yes the Wood # was big. Yes WS seems to have come out of the race well. No
there is nothing on WS TG sheet that gives me any confidence in WS as the
second fave, nothing that makes me feel he repeats the Wood performance.

We Miss Artie update: Worked so sharply this AM TAP considering trying to
talk Ramsey out of running WMA in the Derby. Good luck with that!

[jimbo66]

Richie

A good point and a common theme with several contenders this year.  

But as Jim covello would say \"slow roll alert\".....

[miff]

JB,

More than anyone, you know this race is probably the mother of all mothers.Whether WS runs well or poorly will have nothing to do with JJ\'s win % with shippers.

Mike