Discount the all-importance of workouts?

[JohnTChance]

Today’s thought is to discount deep interpolations about workouts. I suggest not letting them sway you off the essential game of interpreting Jerry’s raw numbers.

On the morning of the Belmont Stakes, the Wall Street Journal had the article \"Belmont Stakes: Let\'s Talk About the Other 10 Horses,” whereby the writer had the following to say about TONALIST, the eventual winner:

#11: TONALIST (8-1)

The colt aims to become the first horse since A.P. Indy in 1992 to win the Peter Pan Stakes and the Belmont Stakes. Christophe Clement is regarded as a trainer who wouldn\'t be in the race without good reason.

A recent workout with a stable mate, however, raised concern. \"The breeze was a bit lackluster,\" said Maggie Wolfendale, an analyst for the New York Racing Association. \"You usually want to see a horse in that situation outwork the other horse.\"

Years ago, I visited a trainer friend at Gulfstream Park a few days before the Florida Derby. He told me he’d been closely monitoring a horse that had recently shipped in to another trainer in his barn for the race. And he said the previous two days THE HORSE ABSOLUTELY COULDN’T MOVE! HE DIDN’T EVEN GO OUT OF THE BARN! HE WAS LAME! Knowing this, obviously, we were determined to discount the horse’s chances in the race when we bet it. However, the horse ended up running his number as if no physical problem had existed that week. He finished a very decent third. At first, I was surprised he even ran in the first place. But then I realized that the horse likely got an important pre-race shot of Bute (or whatever; legal) which temporarily masked his pain and zapped him back to \"normal.” And that this happens all the time.

In the 2012 Kentucky Derby, if I remember correctly, the Churchill Downs workout police were highly critical of Mike Harrington’s CREATIVE CAUSE for moving badly and looking horrible in his workouts. Yet CREATIVE CAUSE ran well (1.5, a forward move), finished fifth, and pretty much ran to his numbers.

There’s GENERAL A ROD that worked bullet fast this year before his Derby but didn’t run well. And then there’s HARD SPUN, who worked very fast (58+?, 59+?) before his Derby a few years back and indeed ran well to finish second, I think.

If TONALIST (or any good horse) works lackluster, perhaps there’s a reason for it that has to do with a off-cycle of his routine, pain-masking medication. With it, zapped back from whatever aches and pains he may have experienced in his lackluster workout, he ran to his ThoroGraph number.

Jerry’s ThoroGraph numbers trump workouts.

JTC

[TreadHead]

Numbers do not trump bad workouts except in very rare circumstances, but who you get the \"bad\" info from is the key here.

Did you really just quote Maggie Wolfendale as though she is an expert on workouts to the point that you should toss a horse if she says something slightly negative?  I need a 15 min break to laugh, brb.



OK, I\'m back.

As with the Derby, the problem here is not a discrepancy between form on the sheets and live appearance, it\'s WHO you are listening to in judging the live appearance.

Before the Derby, people read many negative comments about Commanding Curve, meanwhile Bruno gave CC his only 5 star work 2 works prior to the Derby and explained that the pre-Derby work was just for maintenance after his sparkling move the week before, which most people weren\'t there for yet.

As for Tonalist, Bruno gave out no 5 star works prior to the Belmont, but Tonalist was one have gave 4 stars to.  There was nothing wrong with his pre-Belmont work.

[Boscar Obarra]

Maggie is wrong all the time. Same as everyone else here.

She attempts  to read things in the paddock that most people aren\'t even aware exist, no less have an opinion about.

Everything and everyone with a grain of salt.

[sekrah]

I read numerous people who though Tonalist worked very well before the Belmont.  Welsch was impressed with him.

[ajkreider]

Tonalist absolutely got outworked by Life in Shambles.  But he had excuses like the bar shoes.  And he\'s not much of a worker anyway.

[gteasy]

Mike Welsch\'s final Belmont Clocker\'s Report for June 6th...he concludes:

\"I\'m going for Tonalist at the price\"...and he elaborates why...it goes without
saying that he loved the drills.

[miff]

Workout and body language peeps do good work imo.Would rather know if a horse is working and looking well vs the opposite.

Welsch liked the overall body of work of Tonalist leading up to the Belmont.Welsch, Maggie, Grening all liked Tonalist, CC and Wicked Strong the best going in.

Bruno liked Commanding Curve on top from memory with Tonalist mentioned somewhere in the report.

[ajkreider]

I recall his loving the way he galloped over the track.  His comments on the last work were that he went in company with his work partner \"under a tight hold\".

Just watch the video of the work.

[bellsbendboy]

JTC

You make a statement of dubious veracity; then use a publication that has an article on handicapping every other decade as authentication!

On balance not your best post here imo.  bbb

[TGJB]

bbb-- I will be quoting that post of yours back to you, pretty sure.

[P-Dub]

For top class animals, workouts and appearance are an important piece of the puzzle.

For everyday racing, not nearly as much. I\'ve seen glowing reports of horses run up the track, and poor reports of horses airing.

He\'s not altogether wrong, if you take into account everyday racing.

[JohnTChance]

All valid points above. Didn’t mean to demean Maggie. All the workout beholders go hot and cold (are good and bad). To me, Gary Young is the best. [He taught Harrington, and he loved TONALIST Saturday.]

By the way, with regard to this topic... here comes WILL TAKE CHARGE at 123 lbs. in tomorrow Stephen Foster. After running an impressive bone-rattling string of negative numbers till pairing up staggering -4’s, and having been in training pretty much for two years straight without a real break a la D Wayne Lukas, it was natural to think clunkersville was right around the corner (or else, the poor animal would break down soon). Off the -4’s, I played to beat him in the Oaklawn Handicap on April 12 , where he indeed reacted and also drifted out (in?) late. [In a disgraceful non-move by the Oaklawn stewards, he was not taken down that day - a decision nodding to the power of his Oaklawn-friendly super-owner Willis Horton?. If I remember correctly, that non-takedown cost me an enormous P4 bonanza because I used longshot DANZA in the Arkansas Derby. Sigh.] WTC then put in a true clunker last out in the Alysheba at 3-5. And now… with some fast recent works, [after having been given an invigorating injection and a 40 day withdrawal time pointing for this?], D Wayne is confidently crowing about his chances tomorrow. Lukas says WTC is “sitting on a big one,” having had “a really good month?” Do you believe the way he’s looking/working on the track? And think he’ll snap back to a goodie? Or, in the end, is it Jerry number’s and line that will sway how you’ll play the race? Your move.

JTC

[rhagood]

Hey, he did get a 2 month vacation in Florida this winter which we would all like. More so younger horses and fillies/mares that D Wayne used up in similar fashion, but he has always had owners who want to run and win not breeders who want to space efforts and preserve their horses. So blame the owners as well.  This horse has a history of throwing in clinkers and always bouncing back so based on that  I give him a more than good chance he returns to form and a tough toss but never the best win only type due his history of seconds.  Might be a Oaklawn Handicap repeat in reverse depending on Revolutionary\'s 5 wide number in his last which might get a reaction backwards if it was a new top with just 4 weeks since.