funny thing about this Derby...

[Fairmount1]

Have you confirmed he gets Lasix?  De kock didn\'t give The Apache Lasix for the Million a few years ago.  

I think de Kock is plenty capable of winning a Derby with a horse like this but he may have picked the wrong year to have a nice horse.  If you are interested, Art Sherman quipped that the UAE Derby winner would get his gambling dollars on Kentucky Derby Day.  

He is a game horse; watch the race he lost this year (I am sure you have but others should) and I think he is excellent at moving between and around horses.  The Lasix issue is the most meaningful for me to use him as I hope he does get it.

[Lost Cause]

Old Mr. Boston Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim, I don\'t have any stats to speak one way or
> the other on the throat surgery but didn\'t
> Alysheba have it just before his big run in the
> Triple Crown and the rest of his 3 and 4 year old
> seasons.....Ken


Yes,  This is correct..He got it before the Blue Grass which he won but got DQ\'d and we know the rest.

 I thought Frosted was a top horse after the Remsen so I wasnt surprised to see him run big in his last after the correction  Any other year he would be a top play for me but oh what a year!!!  Best crop i\'ve seen ever and i\'ve been around for a few also.  Someone wrote that they don\'t see Dortmund getting the distance but that horse seems like he outlasts every horse he has faced,  It looks like he is going to get beat but he just keeps going at the same pace while the other tires so I don\'t think that\'s a good assessment. Pharoah beat overmatched horses but looked great doing it..the Dubai horse looks like his grandfather reincarnate. Carpe Diem also looks like a beast who can make his own trip...sit back and enjoy this one everyone, you probably won\'t see it again for a while..Makes me wish I bought the ridiculously overpriced tix being offered for the derby.

[FrankD.]

Affirmed was 2nd choice to Alydar

[beazley]

FWIW, at DWC this year. Pre race there was a lot of talk that inside was better than outside on Meydan dirt all meet. Coincidentally on DWC day all 3 route races won by #1 horse although Prince Bishop did not race inside for long portions of the race. Even Arabian #1 horse took second.  Small sample size but I think pre race comments were confirmed and being inside helped Mubtaahij.

[Old Mr. Boston]

1972 -1975  Cannonade, who would have been 15-1 on his own in 1974 was actually part of the favored entry.

[SoCalMan2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim,
>
> A few observations:
>
> International Star is smallish has tripped out
> twice and was pounded to death with the stick in
> last,slowish vs this group, hate him,he\'ll jog
> probably.
>
> Firing Line is a strong case of a horse getting
> beat twice by Dortmund but should not have lost
> either time, switch riders, strength wise, and FL
> beats Dort both times imo. FL running off the
> screen vs nothing was still ok taking strong
> pressure and finishing with authority at 9f.Fl was
> a bit off training in Feb but roared back in March
> and is holding well now.I like him a lot
> considering his odds.Has already outrun his
> distance breeding.
>
> Materiality is brilliant but lack of 2 yr old race
> etc plus a gut wrencher type Fl Derby makes me
> wonder.Has had good trips so far in his 3 wins.
>
> AP and the slower Carpe Diem look to be sitting on
> a big performance, assuming they train well up to
> race.
>
> Upstart a toss for me too, agree he\'s got knocks
> and has not finished with any authority last 2
> races on that brutal GP surface.
>
> Dortmund will not win the derby without a clear
> outside type trip imo.Watched him go up and down
> twice late in races. Trying to beat him in the
> number, if he trips out he will hit the board with
> his usual good race.
>
>
> Like you, if an outlier hits the board, I\'ll
> lose.Pools too big not to take a shot.
>
> Good luck
> Mike

These comments look spot on to me.  I am feeling particularly intrigued by Firing Line as I see him as basically the same machine as Dortmund in terms of what effort to put out.  I see Firing Line as being better prepped for the race than Dortmund (I know Baffert is a genius, but I think the fact that he ran Dortmund so much suggests that he inside believes that Dortmund needed to get that seasoning -- but it is a double edged sword) and I also see Firing Line as more likely to work out a better trip than Dortmund.  All that and Dortmund will probably be 5-1 or 6-1 and Firing Line will probably be somewhere between 15-1 and 20-1.  In terms of Pedigree, I think it is hard to say.  One thing I will point out is that the Storm Cat in there should be sufficiently diluted that the negative Storm Cat influence should be hardly felt.  I will note that a lot of people said Lion Heart (sire of Line of David) did not have the pedigree for the Derby and he disproved the naysayers wrong (although he just wasn\'t good enough for Smarty Jones, he did beat 18 others going a mile and a quarter).

[miff]

So Cal,

Can\'t have it all with a 15-20 shot so FL\'s weak distance breeding is ok vs price given he\'s fast and accomplished at 9f.

Re breeding, once they get 9f with finish, I toss the breeding angle until the Belmont.Carpe Diem, Storm Cat line and all,is my best bred candidate.Mubtaahij has big distance breeding. Amer Pharaoh kinda weak distance bottom but tough to see that after he ran off the screen Sat.


Mike

[TGJB]

If either Materiality or Upshot wasn\'t in the Fla Derby, that race would look like FL\'s Sunland race or the Ark Derby. Except against better horses.

[richiebee]

beazley Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FWIW, at DWC this year. Pre race there was a lot
> of talk that inside was better than outside on
> Meydan dirt all meet. Coincidentally on DWC day
> all 3 route races won by #1 horse although Prince
> Bishop did not race inside for long portions of
> the race. Even Arabian #1 horse took second.
> Small sample size but I think pre race comments
> were confirmed and being inside helped Mubtaahij.


Without insulting Beazley, I think the comment I have set out in bold face
characterizes alot of what goes on at Derby time here and elsewhere. Somewhere
between \"TMI\" and factoid folly. Do we know if the \"Arabian #1\" actually ran on
the inside of the track for any part of the race?

There is always some solid stuff out there, like Pletcher\'s lifetime Derby
record and the futility of the Storm Cat sire line in the Derby (and query? how
many of these were \"double whammied\": descendants of Storm Cat trained by
TAP?).

Ironic that WT Young, who stood Storm Cat at Overbrook Farm in KY, had Derby
success with a son of Unbridled, that being Grindstone.

Great to see Michael D and MJellish in the mix, and hopefully we\'ll get some
good visual impressions from Jimmy Covello, who has probably tried to buy half
the field at one time or another and can probably identify most of the high
quality 3YOs in North America from their knee x-rays.

[beazley]

The Arabian comment was TMI factoid. Acknowledged and no offense taken. There were a ton of excellent handicappers from abroad that said the inside at Meydan was much preferable for the entire meeting. So not only did Mubtaahij get a dream trip saving ground but he did it running on the fastest part of the racetrack. I studied the Worlc Cup extensively this year since I was in attendance. I\'m a rare poster not wanting to be redundant with other info but felt this was relevant in evaluating Mubtaahij.

[richiebee]

Big question with this runner to me is whether he will go with lasix. If he is
running with lasix on race day, I would imagine that it would be best to train
him on the diuretic to see how he reacts to it.

Another question: Soumillion an excellent money rider. Will he have the
opportunity to take a couple mounts on the CD main course before the race?

Haskin reporting he will prep on a synthetic surface in KY until a couple of days
before the race.

Lots of positives here. Currently 12/1 at British bookmakers. Aceriley has him at
90/1 and has reportedly volunteered to watch over this guy 24/7.

[covelj70]

Richie,

if you only knew how true that is....

you hit the nail on the head!!!!