Sheet on My Miss Sophia

[covelj70]

For those looking for examples of TAP horses that ran big figures at GP but couldn\'t replicate them at CD, you better not look at My Miss Sophia sheet in the turf stake on Friday at Keenland.

She ran a huge fig for a young 3 year old filly at GP and then matched that fig at CD on Oaks Day.

Probably best to just ignore that one since it doesn\'t fit all of the conspiracy theories.

My Super Saver example from earlier this week got dismissed bc it was at Tampa and not GP and because it wasn\'t \"big enough\".  Well, MMS figure was bigger than Materiality (when making the 3 point adjustment for fillies and colts) and it was at GP but we will surely find another reason why that fig isn\'t relevant.

No reason to look at sheet for Materiality half sister, nothing to see here....please disperse!!!

[TGJB]

We\'ll post the Pletcher stats in the seminar.

It doesn\'t have to be all horses to be true. And believe me, it\'s not just TG people who have noticed (including some of his owners, one of whom decided it\'s because his horses like that kind of surface. Another noticed he does a lot better when Allday is around than during the period a while back when he wasn\'t).

[covelj70]

right or maybe it\'s what I have been saying on this board for years,

that he pushes his horses very hard starting at Saratoga and horses can\'t stay in top form that long

I love all the Pletcher conspiracy nonsense because it creates a much better price on the horse I happen to like this year but I do think it\'s just that, nonsense

He may not win b.c maybe the distance is too far or AP is too brilliant or he gets bumped around or caught up in a fast pace or because the 2 neg knocked him out in the Fla Derby (doesn\'t seem like it did but never know until they run) so he is the furthest thing from a sure thing but I will take the fastest (or co fastest) horse in the race who is thriving at the right time physically who had a sire and siblings run huge at CD for a trainer who has won the race before and hit the board the last 2 years at 10 to 1 any day of the week

[TGJB]

My comments were on Pletcher, not this horse. I\'ll have plenty of those in the seminar.

The greatest part of the \"conspiracy theory\" came when Allday admitted everything to 20 members of the Jockey Club. I guess he just wanted people to think it was true when it wasn\'t.

[covelj70]

it\'s very misleading to suggest that he was referring specifically to Derby related things

[TGJB]

I didn\'t. But he\'s been Pletcher\'s vet almost straight through since Pletcher started winning big, and we know from the TDN series that the situation with rules and testing in Fla is different.

[Caradoc]

Jerry, in that vein, any comment on the Dickinson piece written for the Water Hay Oats Alliance that also appeared in the Paulick Report last week? Specifically, that it is hard to trust any results produced by accredited labs because the standards for accreditation are so lax it is difficult to fail?  Dickinson\'s most sensational allegation is that one director of an accredited lab knew his equipment was outdated  and so sent samples to Hong Kong, and the result was that the samples were so \"dirty\" it took seven days to clean the equipment. Pretty tough stuff, although without names, dates, etc. all impossible to verify.

[TGJB]

Single most interesting about this is I tried to get Michael to write a piece on drugs about a year ago, he wouldn\'t. He\'s been on the right side for years.

Other than that, haven\'t read it. You can put it here with a link.

[Caradoc]

http://www.paulickreport.com/horse-care-category/dickinson-breeders-must-lead-the-way-to-change-u-s-drug-rules/

[covelj70]

well, we are talking about the Derby lately here so the reference could have been misinterpreted as Allday was talking specifically about the Derby horses in that discussion which I know he wasn\'t.

here\'s the bottom-line for me

Pletcher has had plenty of horses run well in the Derby and Oaks including in each of the last 2 years.

Cherry picking sample sets of his horses that haven\'t run well is just reverse engineering to fit a thesis. Will you include his Oaks runners in the sample you provide for the seminar?  Seems arbitrary if you don\'t.

I use the TGs b/c it\'s the best data in the game.  The conspiracy theories that abound around the data I will leave to everyone else to get wrapped up in.

Give me the fastest horse in the race at 10-1 and I will take my chances.  

Wouldn\'t be the first Derby I have crapped out on!

[justwin]

Jim,
I have not had the time to research this but I believe a lot of Pletcher horses that did not run well in the KYD were not that good. Of course some were but I don\'t believe many were expected to win. I am better at guessing the final odds than picking the winners and I will wait for posts to be drawn and factor in public perception but Materiality will be higher than 10-1.

George

[covelj70]

Thanks for those thoughts

My guess is that when all the wise guys see how good Materiality looks and moves come derby week, he will get some steam and go off lower than his current odds.

[TGJB]

Before this gets completely off track-- my point is specifically about getting figures in Fla  (and maybe Mth) that they are less likely to run elsewhere. It is NOT about the Derby, Oaks or anything else than that. I named the two horses that earned the best two figures of all time, one was 4yo and one a filly, so it CLEARLY wasn\'t about the Derby. You then cherry picked a list-- and I posted sheets for the ones you listed.

Again-- not about the Derby, let alone a specific horse.

If we ran a study I\'m pretty sure we would find Pletcher gets a higher % of tops at GP than any other track. And it\'s not confined to his 3yos.

[Wrongly]

Jim

You saying he\'s the Saarland this year?

[miff]

Tops at GP are irrelevant.What is TAP\'s win % at GP vs NYRA venue which two venues are where a majority of his annual starters race.

If he\'s using at GP, his win % should be much higher than at NYRA.