Sheet on My Miss Sophia

[miff]

JB,

Cat got your tongue? Pletcher is statistically weak in Kentucky, arguably the weakest of the main venues re comprehensive testing. Puts lots of holes in the swiss cheese TAP is using illegal PEDS theory.

Mike

[TGJB]

There\'s a reason we make figures. They\'re more accurate than win %.

[justwin]

the point is that for the derby the average win % is 1 in 20 or 5% assuming that you have an overall equal chance to win with the horse you have. If pletcher won one more derby he would be 2/40 or 1/20. The average in the money % for the derby assuming a 20 horse field is 15%. If pletcher had that one more win he would be 5% on the win and 15% itm. Do we have any trainers with a good % as a trainer for the derby? I don\'t think any results will be meaningful. Now the CD stats are interesting albeit 40 of them were derby horses.

[KK4510]

Justwin: I think you base your percentages on the presumption of a single horse by a trainer is entered. TAP entries in the derby are often two,three, or even four horses on the first Saturday in May. As far as trainer percentages go, Art Sherman has a pretty good one as well as John Sherrifs and Charlie Whittingham.

[Tavasco]

Miff, I am not contradicting your conclusion. I was just looking for a place to interject into this thread. I consider you open minded and industry savvy so I picked this spot.  My approach to solving problems is to start outside of the nine dots. I want to consider as many limiting factors as I can imagine.

From Neuro Linguistics Programming (NLP), If I observe a person hanging out right next to a big bunch of personal pain, What do I conclude? I conclude there is an enormous bunch of pain just out of my sight because I know people avoid pain and/or seek pleasure. Therefore (hoping not to mix metaphors) if I see a trainer not exploiting a major source of revenue it is because I don\'t see the associated costs or the trainer is more concerned with a bigger payoff elsewhere.

TAP is consistently referred to as the most successful Trainer in the U.S.. I believe that is a function of both races won and $\'s won. I don\'t hear him referred to as the best trainer in North America. I conclude he is an extremely competent businessman in the Thoroughbred Horse Racing Industry.

I have never seen an income statement of his so I can only guess at his streams of income. We know he gets a share of the purse money. I suppose he gets fees from consulting on the purchase of horses. I am guessing he gets fees somehow/someway from breeding.

When I see stats like those presented in this thread, I conclude NY & FL are TAP\'s primary agenda, CD is not his agenda. Based on results, the facts, I can\'t be certain of his business strategies but it is easy to imagine it involves a focus on winning targeted races in the service of growing his clientele and dovetails with breeding. If he wins the Kentucky Derby in the process, so be it wonderful. But frankly that is only one client, and his operation could be measuring their success by another metric. I don\'t know the TAP paradigm, is it so unreasonable to believe it is not in his best interest to dominate the race or that he couldn\'t if that was a priority. I suspect that breeding economics is the unseen key.

A thanks to Jim Covello and a chance to probably misuse the term paradigm one of my favorite words. I\'ve always imagined the Wall Street paradigm to be centered around intelligence (like in CIA) those who had the best information got the best results. The concept of insider information and the need for rules concerning same. So this board encourages and invites Jim to share info acquired from his position in the thoroughbred industry during this Kentucky Derby feeding frenzy. Jim has always been generous to share, when appropriate, and believing Materialistic to be a good things says so. I have my opinions but I do not need to argue with Jim\'s to make mine right. So I was embarrassed that it happened on a board that prides itself on civility.

In Short - TAP does not dominate the Kentucky Derby because he is unable to, but because it may not be fundamental to and possibly contrary to his business strategy. In other words turning over precocious young horses is more profitable than investing in stamina oriented late developing horses.  

In the end - A Great Line From - La Grande Belleza - It is too complicated for one person.

[BitPlayer]

Looking at Materiality\'s sheet for the Florida Derby and some old sheets (none except Monmouth older than last September) from other tracks, here are TG\'s published top and pair percentages for Pletcher:

Overall: 17% tops, 31% pairs
Aqu: 17%, 29%
Bel: 15%, 31%
CD: 14%, 32%
FG: 18%, 41%
GP: 23%, 34%
Kee: 17%, 30%
Mth: 15%, 31%
OP: 17%, 29%
Sar: 12%, 32%
Tampa: 25%, 27%
Turfway: 28%, 20%

Obviously the sample sizes for some of these tracks are a lot smaller than for others.

[Edited to add Tampa]

[Leamas57]

Neat that you used the line from that movie, Tavasco.  Just saw it. The Great Beauty.

Covello has a successful WallSt. guy\'s greatest asset: conviction. I like Mareriality, too. Afleet Alex was an incredible horse! Hope M runs to that breeding!

Something I see in the TP (and Baffert)issue is that GP and SAR (and SA) are speed tracks . CD can be fast, too, but not like the others.  It might be the surface or the oversight, but speed horses don\'t win on slower tracks. To me it\'s like taking a sprinter to a route. And since the Derby in particular is longer with more weight, the speed types are less effective.  

Great threads this last week.

Leamas

[RICH]

and i got GP 25% NYRA 21% one yr Apr2014- April 2015

[shanahan]

SAR surprises me greatly.  just 12% tops?

[smalltimer]

RICH,
Thanks. The numbers I used were for the entire \'13 and \'14 racing season at the named tracks, and the \'15 season from Jan through yesterday.

[miff]

\"SAR surprises me greatly. just 12% tops?\"

Tops irrelevant, how often does he win at Sar? He\'s always one/two in trainer standings and number 1 with 2yr olds,he has 50 or so each year of top quality.

Considering the quality of the stock TAP receives every year, his results are average. Not a stat anywhere to support the use of illegal PEDS at any venue,clearly inferred by some of the conspiracy minded.

Personally have always felt any competent trainer could win at 25% with TAP\'s stock AND there are no less than a 5-6 NY trainers alone who told me exactly that,obviously some jealous.

TAP great CEO, average horseman based on results.

[Wrongly]

Based on pattern alone how many of these really were plays to win:

Danza (2) - 2,7,6,11                                3rd race off layoff
We Miss Artie (5) - 3,11,6,8,5,12,15                4th race since break
Intense Holiday (2) - 2,0,6,6,6,6,8                 4th race since break
Vinceremos (14) - 14,3,5,9,12                       6th race since break

Revolutionary  (2) - 2,5,2,11,4,10                  2nd off layoff
Charming Kitten  (6) - 2,6,8,8,10,11,14             5th race since break
Overanalyze  (6) - 1,3,0,6,3,10,6                   3rd race off layoff
Palace Malice  (6) - 4,8,4,5,8,5                    5th race since break
Verrazano  (6) - 0,1,-2,4                           5th race since break

El Padrino  (11) - 2,2,2,7,7,11                     4th race since break
Gemologist  (14) - 2,2,5,7,7                        3rd race off layoff

Stay Thirsty  (7) - 11,3,7,2,7,7                    3rd race off layoff
 
Super Saver  (1) - 2,2,2,5,4,9                      3rd race off layoff
Mission Impazible (5) - 4,4,4,8                     4th race since break
Devil May Care  (6) - 0,11,9,4,8                    3rd race off layoff for the filly
Discreetly Mine (11) - 3,4,10,5,5,5,11              4th race since break

Looks pretty clear to me, fastest enough going 2nd or 3rd off the layoff!