Rags on Wood and Gazelle

[TGJB]

They used an average track speed, as Miff said. They must have the entire Gazelle field going back substantially, in a graded stake. Amazing how all those good fillies, who presumably were aimed for the race, all decided to run terrible at the same time.

[joemama]

Maybe it was really really windy when they ran that race. More windy than when the Wood went off. LOL.

[TGJB]

May well have been. But I\'m pretty sure it was windy for all of them, and they would all look a lot better if you took off 3-4 points.

This all goes back to the assumption they make, we I discuss at length in Changing Track Speeds, that the track stays the same speed throughout the day. All else aside (by which I mean there is zero scientific basis for that assumption), the issue of tracks drying out due to wind comes into play on a day like that.

[Tavasco]

Pardon my visit to the deep end, seems those will be some tough patterns to make sense out of.

[miff]

JB,

Spent a ton of time on Wood using 5 sources and did the day. Just can\'t trust the figs for that day. Too many things happened in the Gazelle(JB points out) but the Wood does not reconcile either. Can\'t buy the fast figs of the top 2 Wood finishers until they run back a couple of times. Based on the prior performances of the top two,just could not get them what they received.

On Rags, Comm Curve will enter the Oaks as one of the choices sporting a Beyer of 73 and a TG 10....not credible regardless of outcome.


Mike

[TGJB]

Here\'s the Wood. But aren\'t you the guy who says to go by the teletimer? If I did that here and made the Wood slower, I would have to make the Gazelle even crazy slower than they did-- as it is I made the track (or wind or whatever) 3 1/2 slower for the Gazelle.

[miff]

Yes for sure which is why I said the Gazelle and Wood just don\'t stand up as being that far apart raw, almost can\'t be imo.

[miff]

Also, would bet my eyeballs that Tencendur has not run faster than 3-4 horses that have slower figs on your stuff.

[ajkreider]

JB,

I noticed on the attached you have the thoro-pattern running March through May.  In the Derby package it\'s April - June.  Was there a reason?  It does give different results.

[ajkreider]

But it\'s not just the Gazelle that\'s an outlier.  Look at the fastest 7f race, compared to Carter and Bayshore.

[miff]

AJ,

Wood day makes little sense to me, even the one turners did not come up very clean imo. Insane wind reaps havoc with raw and all a fig maker can do is make a best effort. There were days at GP this year which fell into the same category.

F-k Wood day, it\'s probably gonna hurt me.


Mike

[TGJB]

Those sheets are for a race run in early April.

That aside, those Thoro-Patters are basically for those who have no experience reading sheets. They are gross oversimplifications.

[ajkreider]

Thx. I will give them their due consideration.

[ajkreider]

Yeah.  I will probably make up a few tickets with those figs as gospel, and leave the Wood horses out of the majority, as a result.

[SoCalMan2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> JB,
>
> Spent a ton of time on Wood using 5 sources and
> did the day. Just can\'t trust the figs for that
> day. Too many things happened in the Gazelle(JB
> points out) but the Wood does not reconcile
> either. Can\'t buy the fast figs of the top 2 Wood
> finishers until they run back a couple of times.
> Based on the prior performances of the top
> two,just could not get them what they received.
>
> On Rags, Comm Curve will enter the Oaks as one of
> the choices sporting a Beyer of 73 and a TG
> 10....not credible regardless of outcome.
>
>
> Mike

Mike --

I understand what you are saying here.  And, you know a ton more about figure making than I do.  However, in my experience, this is touching on where the real value in thorograph comes from. More times than not, when you are dealing with young horses that seem on thorograph to have run faster than you would have expected utilizing other data, thorograph is right and the other indicators are wrong.  War Emblem is the classic example I remember where Thorograph had him getting fast before the other figuremakers.  I may sound like Vito here (who, incidentally, I believe is a superb sheet reader), but I do not know how these things are made but if the numbers seem crazy in comparison to other indicators, I am going to go with the sheet over the other stuff because (a) experience has proven that to be a better choice and (b) usually when there are countervailing indicators, that is where you get a better price by choosing the signal over the noise.