4 Knocks -- American Pharoah

[vagrant]

What you say is true. Nevertheless, Point Given didn\'t finish like he was capable of finishing in peak form. He wound up nearly 7 lengths out of 3rd.

Maybe I\'m not getting what you\'re saying re: the points system, but it seems that the change has compelled trainers to considering running more, not less. Big 2YO earnings would allow a guy to coast into the field in years past. Now he\'s got to run to show that his horse\'s A+ form has carried over.

Nonetheless, it seems clear to me that Baffert prefers his horses to enter the Derby with plenty of race fitness. He\'s been far more likely to go with 4 preps than 2 preps.

I could be wrong, but I\'m not buying that he chose to run just two preps with Pharoah. Every time he\'s had a horse w/ elite 2YO form, he\'s scheduled three 3YO preps -- unless circumstances forbade doing so.

Pharoah might be so superduper that it won\'t matter, but Baffert is, by his standards, running a short horse. Probably could\'ve gotten away with it last year. But this year?

Dortmund had a fine 2YO season. He got three preps. Seems irrational to presume that Pharoah needed fewer, all things being equal.

[vagrant]

No sir. The \"keeping him fresh for the TC\" stuff was post-scratch spin. He planned to run in one of the early San races and scratched out.

What\'s more, Baffert said the \"keeping him fresh for the TC\" plan was dumb. Only a fool takes the Kentucky Derby for granted.

[jp702006]

When has he gotten worked up? At Oaklawn this year in both races he was pretty well behaved.

[beazley]

The excellent seminar last year confirmed what we had been seeing. That 2 or 3 preps are preferred. 2 preps had improved likelihood of a top and 3 preps were more likely to pair. The 2 prep model had more risk with a 50% chance of X

11 of 12 superfecta spots the last 3 years wemt to 2 or 3 prep horses. Don\'t have time to look further but the conclusions are obvious.  Unfortunately this isn\'t that helpful since only 4 horses don\'t qualify this year.

AP is an underlay. There are a couple rested fast horses that fit the model this year.

[vagrant]

Not sure I\'d count California Chrome as 3-prepper. That\'s more of a calendar fluke than anything. He took a break on Nov. 1 and raced 4 times before the Derby, starting Dec. 22.

[Agastache]

I\'ve got General Challenge with 4.

Liaison had 3, but looks like he lost the rider in one, so I didn\'t count that start.

[SoCalMan2]

vagrant Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here\'s a knock: Baffert is winless in four starts
> w/ horses off two preps. Point Given, 5th, was his
> best finished. The others are Indian Express,
> Lookin At Lucky and Chitu.
>
> Three starts is his sweet spot: 11-2-1-2 (w/ a
> 4th, 5th & 6th for good measure).
>
> Four starts: 9-1-2-0. He inherited War Emblem from
> another trainer. Cavonnier was his first Derby
> horse. Bodemeister didn\'t race at 2.

It has been pointed out elsewhere, but Lookin At Lucky\'s effort in the Derby cannot be viewed as a function of his preparation. The trouble he encountered was so severe that it would be unreasonable to have expected him to fire a normal effort.  

Also, my recollection of Point Given\'s Derby could be flawed, but I recall that race having an absolutely insane pace....probably the fastest early derby ever...there were a bunch of confirmed front runners in there (it would be like there being three Groovies in one race).....while he wasn\'t on the pace, he was pretty close up and was very wide on the first turn....when adjusted for lost ground he may well have run the fastest mile ever in KY Derby history and it is hard to fault him for fading after such extreme early exertions. Again, I cannot see his preparation as the fault of the performance which seemed to me to be exemplary but pace compromised.  Congaree did suffer the same early pressure and held better (although I am not sure who took the worst of the early pressure between the two of them.....those lanes wide in that first turn at the speed they were going had to truly extract noteworthy extra effort.)

[toppled]

His 1st race.  That\'s like saying you\'re worried about your kid\'s 1st day on the school bus because he cried on a bus when he was an infant.

[vagrant]

Good catch. I misread my own spreadsheet. Gen. Challenge had 4 starts.

That makes Baffert w/ 3 preps 10-2-1-2. 20% win, 50% ITM.

4 preps: 10-1-2-0. 10% win, 30% ITM.

Worth noting that his lone 4-start winner was War Emblem, who he inherited from another trainer.

2 preps is still 4-0-0-0-0.

Fair game to say Liaison had just 2 real starts. But he was prepared and entered for three. That\'s Baffert\'s aim w/ horses that have good 2YO form.

[vagrant]

You recollection of the pace in Point Given\'s Derby is correct. However, I have a very hard time cutting PG slack over his performance given that Congaree finished well ahead of him despite being closer to the pace.

Whether PG\'s fade was due to insufficient conditioning can\'t be known for sure. Same thing with Lookin At Lucky. He definitely had early trouble, but it\'s optimistic to assume that a clean trip places him in the money. There\'s simply no way to know for sure. Gotta play the ball where it lies.

[pizzalove]

Also didn\'t baffert have an incredible hot streak for like 3 derbies in a row?  I heard this was due to him being the first to use Glenbuterol when no one else had heard of it.

[pizzalove]

The pace was very fast for Point Givens derby.  The track played extremely fast that day.  Point given was really never looking like a winner on derby day.  Needed more seasoning.  Beat an extremely weak group in Santa Anita with few horses if I remember right.

[hotspringskid]

Guess we broke the short tail jinx. Probably carried less weight with that short tail. Next let\'s break the blue tail jinx. Lol