Hypothetical...

[phil23]

Here\'s the bloodhorse article with BB\'s quotes, for what it\'s worth.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91580/baffert-may-not-enter-filly-in-kentucky-oaks

[smalltimer]

6 of the 20 head have either bore in or bore out in at least 1 of their last 2 races.

[johnnym]

Thank you for the education

[TGJB]

Still have to write and record each horse.

Derby is a waaaaayyyyy better betting race.

[johnnym]

It may ask miff who is your oaks pick?

[sekrah]

Absolutely love Lovely Maria\'s line.  Her and Birdatthewire are the keys I think.

Dislike I\'m A Chatterbox and Condo Commando.

[smalltimer]

Not educating anyone johnny, its in the sheets.  If I had to guess I would say El Kabeir.
Mr. Z has been non-stop for almost a year, every time he pokes his nose out the top part of the stall door, Lukas tacks him up and runs him.

[Rich Curtis]

\"should the same thinking factor into handicapping the race?\"

No. Who cares who is most likely to be taken out with a soundness problem?

The real question concerns having a soundness problem and being left in.

[smalltimer]

Yes, yes, yes.  You are exactly right Rich!!

[TGJB]

Which is the point of the question. And why it has to be factored into handicapping.

A few years ago I knew of a Derby favorite who had a real serious problem, and the connections were thinking of running him almost up to entry time. A horse only gets one shot at the Derby, people don\'t always do the right thing.

Fast horses are only fast if they run their race.

[smalltimer]

TGJB,
I took a quick look at the last 5 Derbys and the 6 bearing in or out is about in line with most years.
Chrome and Bode each had a bo or bi line.  Shackleford ran very well and he had 2 heading into the Derby.

The numbers, and I went up a dead end, were:
2014 7
2013 8
2012 4
2011 5
2010 7

Those numbers of starters either bore in or out during their 3 y.o. campaign.

[mjellish]

In my opinion the problem is this: there have been a few horses, in recent years, that if you saw them in their stall or walking a day or two before the derby you would leave them entirely off your ticket, but they came through and hit the board. Do not underestimate how much race day meds help some of these get through whatever is bothering them.  And I don\'t mean anything illegal.  Strictly legal stuff.  So I think you have to be very careful here unless they actually miss some training due to the issue(s).  

I would say that if you already don\'t like the horse then maybe that helps you like them even less.  But that\'s about it.

[TGJB]

The BI comment wasn\'t mine and had nothing to do with the question. May or may not have anything to do with the answer.

[miff]

Empire Maker walked lamely the morning of the Derby.

[TGJB]

The same medication is available for other races, but a far higher percentage run \"X\'s\" in the Derby than in other 3yo stake races. Almost half.