Getting nervous about Materiality

[miff]

Probably an Italian, they are always causing trouble over here.

[HP]

When he says \"take him out\" I think he is talking about the horse, Materiality, not JB.  Tough room.

[TGJB]

Really? Your wife hurt my feelings worse than that guy did. You should see what my passport photo looks like, much worse. That one even scares me.

[moosepalm]

HP Wrote:
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> When he says \"take him out\" I think he is talking
> about the horse, Materiality, not JB.  Tough room.


Tough room indeed.  On this thread alone we have \"take him out\" and \"I wouldn\'t wanna run into that guy in a dark alley.\"  We better just hope that Joe Drape doesn\'t read this, or we\'re going to see an article about how racing has crossed the line from lovable Runyonesque characters to \"On the Waterfront\" territory.

[HP]

Haaaaa!

Jerry if you\'re taping the seminar and they want your good side turn around.

[boston]

Cov - any thoughts on Wednesday about Materiality?

Here is what Welsch stated about Wednesday gallops:

MATERIALITY, who did get hot during a routine schooling session in the paddock yesterday afternoon,  looked fine this morning turning in another in a series of strong gallops before visiting the starting gate for the second straight morning . He appeared to have just a hint of neck sweat, from my vantage point, when jogging back to leave the track.

[covelj70]

was on left lead again coming down the lane this morning

maybe means something, maybe doesn\'t but he never did that in Florida

I am using two key horses for my super (i.e. those two need to come in any spot in the top 4) and then I fill it out with the others I give a shot to.

I was going to key AP and Mat.

I will still use Mat as one of the \"others\" but he won\'t be the second key.

Still looking for that horse now that I moved Mat to the \"other\" category.

[boston]

Thank you for the information.

[SoCalMan2]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> was on left lead again coming down the lane this
> morning
>
> maybe means something, maybe doesn\'t but he never
> did that in Florida
>
> I am using two key horses for my super (i.e. those
> two need to come in any spot in the top 4) and
> then I fill it out with the others I give a shot
> to.
>
> I was going to key AP and Mat.
>
> I will still use Mat as one of the \"others\" but he
> won\'t be the second key.
>
> Still looking for that horse now that I moved Mat
> to the \"other\" category.


your other second key doesn\'t have to be one horse.  You could make two sets of tickets.  Both with AP as Key 1, but one set with Frosted as Key 2 and another set with Upstart as Key 2.  Yes, you spend twice as much, but also you get yourself some space on a decision that is obviously tough for you to make.

[bellsbendboy]

Not that you need any help Jim but it seems difficult to leave out Carpe Diem.  My read on the TG figs leads me to believe he is the most likely horse to run a negative number; outside of the freak.  bbb

[mjellish]

Jim, as you may remember I bet it that way in 2011 except I had 3 horses and needed two of them to hit the Tri.  Used Arch Arch Arch, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford.  Used AK and Shak stronger and backed off a bit on Archx3 after he drew the rail.  Took 1st and 4th with two colts over 20-1 and wound up with Stugots.  Considering Shackleford came back to win the Preakness, I figure the bad rail at Churchill on Derby Day only cost me $1M.

Point I\'m trying to make is this -  I know some of these look hopelessly overmatched.  But don\'t get cheap (not that you would) and just miss when someone lugs up into 4th.  Do yourself a favor and go watch replays of the last 5 Ky Derbys and note who lugs up into 3rd or 4th, even 2nd.  Not saying this will happen this year.  But I would be using ALL for 4th if I really found two colts I liked to key.  

As an aside, if you don\'t have two colts you like at this point you may want to reconsider how you are structuring your bet rather than trying to find a colt that will fit your structure.

[TGJB]

MJ, that last sentence is crucial.

\"What do I like about this race\"? Answering that usually helps you decide how to play.

[dannyboy135]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> was on left lead again coming down the lane this
> morning
>
> maybe means something, maybe doesn\'t but he never
> did that in Florida
>
> I am using two key horses for my super (i.e. those
> two need to come in any spot in the top 4) and
> then I fill it out with the others I give a shot
> to.
>
> I was going to key AP and Mat.
In have been out each morning, I thought materiality looked great and got over the track wonderfully.  Though I was on the backside and didn\'t see him gallop down the lane. Coming to the track he was cool and composed
This is my 31st consecutive derby and I\'ve never seen a group look so good. Usually, some are drawn and clearly over the top.  Others or sore and travel poorly but this group is exceptional. A couple of random observations:
1. Carpe,materiality, ap, Dortmund all look and travelled exceptionally
2. Firing looks good and galloped nicely but small and have traffic concerns
3. Didn\'t see upstart but heard from respected source he went brilliantly
4. Ocho looks dehydrated, small and over the top
5. Mubtaahg appeared small n travel weary
6. Not impressed with the other appearances other than frosted who looked and travelled well
This is one hell of a puzzle?


>
> I will still use Mat as one of the \"others\" but he
> won\'t be the second key.
>
> Still looking for that horse now that I moved Mat
> to the \"other\" category.

[Gerard]

Shackleford in the Preakness. From what I call he was a complete mess before the race. Romans said afterward he usually looks that way, don\'t think he did in the derby. My question is, can you look for anything in particular in a washy horse that indicates he may still run well?

[P-Dub]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Probably an Italian, they are always causing
> trouble over here.

So that\'s why I act like I do.

With the goatee, I thought JB looks a bit like James Gandolfini. Maybe the guy confused him with Tony Soprano.  That guy was known for whacking a few guys.