AP vs Big Brown

[T Severini]

miff Wrote:
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> Frank,
>
> Easy,let the eyeballs see how AP looks next week.
> Can\'t go back to Firing Line, have to feel his
> heart broken more than mine.
>
>
> Early Vegas,
>
> AP 6-5,
>
> Firing Line 5,
>
> Dortmund 5,
>
> Competitive Edge 12,
>
> Danzig Moon 20,
>
> Diving Rod 30,
>
> Mr Z 50,
>
> Bodhisattva 100
>
> Mike

I think Materiality is coming in for this dance.

Maybe even Carpe Diem who I didn\'t give much of a Derby prayer on surface affinity.  Pletcher needs to get that one on Turf ASAP. He\'s a Keeneland type horse and we\'ve all seen what Keeneland types tend to do in the Derby. Pre surface change, funky surface and back to dirt funky surface.

[smalltimer]

T,
I\'m on board with that way of thinking. My point in the 4 preps was the others in the sample with 4 preps did very poorly.  Didn\'t mean Upstart would.  I would have been very happy had he brought his A game, cause I played him.
The two horses in the sample with 4 preps prior to the Derby were Verrazano and Keyed Entry.  No question, most serious handicappers gave Verrazano no chance at 8/1 and no 2 year old starts.  Keyed Entry had went backwards for 2 straight races after the negative and heading into the Derby going the wrong direction, it was no surprise he went off at almost 30/1.
Upstart had differences from both of those horses, and it was night and day.  He was moving into the right direction headed for the Derby, had the strong 2 year old foundation, and was 20/1.  There was stuff to like.
What happened, only a few people know.  I\'ve been told by the man himself I don\'t know what I\'m talking about with Upstart and I accept that.  I consider his Derby a non-effort for whatever the reason(s) were.
The reason I stated that I didn\'t like Upstart was the 4 preps prior to the Derby, I only had 2 horses that didn\'t have a snowballs chance in their Derby, now I had a horse that had the numbers, foundation, etc, but I went with the idea that there might be something about the 4 preps.  It was a guess on my part and I wouldn\'t have minded being wrong, especially at 20/1.
Thanks man, enjoy your take on things. (I really need to put this thing to bed).

[miff]

On final figures.Someone posted AP looked poorly after race or Sun, Mon. That\'s contrary to what an eyeballer saw today.Trainers like Baffert pretty adept at knowing their horses and how to attempt to get them refueled as necessary.

AP reported NOT tired in days following derby.Over the top/gutted sometimes does not show until the horse is put under stress in the next race, we\'ll see.

[smalltimer]

T,
One more mostly unrelated thought.  Another poster wonders why I used the 2005-2014 years as a sample.  10 years is easy to work with.  In that 10 year period we had 2 different $ 100.00 winners, several chalk winners like Brown, Orb, Chrome, Street Sense was chalky, we had Super Saver at 14.00 or so, we had Barbaro with the turf background and a bunch of horses entered that ran on or were introduced to synthetics.  I thought for a random 10 year period it took a lot of things into consideration.

[T Severini]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> T Sev,
>
> I have to say, I love your style
>
> Would be cool if you didn\'t ALWAYS automatically
> disagree with everything I post but hey, that\'s
> what makes a market!
>
> I think I know who you were referring to in that
> little diatribe and if it\'s who I think it is,
> then that\'s honestly one of the most amusing
> things in the history of this board
>
> Relative to the horse,
>
> I use the numbers to tell me how brilliant a horse
> is and the fact that this horse just ran the
> second faster Derby in history tells me you are
> selling him short in terms of how good he is.
>
> Four horses in this Derby ran figures/races that
> would have won last year\'s Derby and sure Big
> Brown won off like a locomotive in his Derby but
> he didn\'t have 2 other negative figure horses
> chasing him in that race like AP did in this
> race.
>
> He could certainly lose the Preakness but I think
> it\'s much more likely that he will lose the
> Belmont.
>
> He could bounce three points and likely still win
> the Preakness, just like BB did.
>
> That would be a pretty awful pattern for the
> Belmont and that\'s where I would take my stand
>
> However, what if this horse pairs his 3 neg in the
> Preakness and then goes into the Belmont with
> paired tops and never having gone backward.
>
> I will still play against him in the Belmont but
> not to anywhere near the same extent as I would if
> he wins the Preakness while going backwards

Cov, first off thank you. The diatribe was intended to be funny and you\'re spot on regarding the subject. You do know he threw up after that fit don\'t you? Projectile vomited, just like the character in the movie. I\'m not making that up.

You did make a couple posts that I disagreed with after making one I endorsed.  I really think Materiality is the star of this crop. Time will tell. I\'m also not convinced that AP is anywhere near a Big Brown.  I\'m gonna test that soon, just want a few more horses in the race. I know there\'s figure disputes, I\'m not gonna address that. I\'m going to address the 1,2,3 around the track thing. It\'s possible three pace horses were the best going in and the best coming out, but my experience says there\'s other reasons for such a result.

I\'ll look to agree with one of your next posts!

[T Severini]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> T,
> One more mostly unrelated thought.  Another poster
> wonders why I used the 2005-2014 years as a
> sample.  10 years is easy to work with.  In that
> 10 year period we had 2 different $ 100.00
> winners, several chalk winners like Brown, Orb,
> Chrome, Street Sense was chalky, we had Super
> Saver at 14.00 or so, we had Barbaro with the turf
> background and a bunch of horses entered that ran
> on or were introduced to synthetics.  I thought
> for a random 10 year period it took a lot of
> things into consideration.

I\'m not sure. I won with Brown and Street Sense, the latter was about 5-1 per my recollection coming off a poor artificial surface Keeneland Bluegrass.

I\'ve bet a lot of Derbies. Won a lot too, although I\'m on a long cold streak now. One thing that I think I\'ve learned is that each year\'s race stands apart from all that has transpired before...For example I really thought AP would be five wide at the turn due to starting in the auxiliary gate. If he had been, Firing Line gets the upset.

p.s. I wouldn\'t bet him with monopoly money, but I think Super Saver went off at 8-1.

[RICH]

Man I thought the link man over there was rough

[TGJB]

Yeah, well. Are you now or have you ever been Chuckles The Clown?

[smalltimer]

No.  I\'m done this time I promise.  I would have been done earlier but been dodging tornadoes out here off and on for 3 hours tonight and I figured if tonight\'s the night I bite the dust I wanted closure.   LOL
And to think earlier today I was drilling the link king. I agree RICH, and shame on me.

[Leamas57]

Arrest that man: he is a posting imposter!

[Leamas57]

Arrest that man: he is a posting imposter!

Leamas

[T Severini]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Yeah, well. Are you now or have you ever been
> Chuckles The Clown?


Sounds like you are trying to name a horse?  There\'s 18 characters in that phrase, isn\'t that the maximum number the Jockey Club allows in a Thoroughbred\'s name?

[bellsbendboy]

For me,  I vote \"Chuckles\" has surfaced!  bbb

[TGJB]

You are on the shortest imaginable leash.

[Chas04]

Lol...no I don\'t know more then anyone else on here. I consider this probably the sharpest group of professional players out there. Thats why I love seeing everyones opinions. I read and heard all about APs ear plugs as well. I think we all did. Yes he can get beat and yes he will take an L eventually. But to blatantly toss him out of the exacta in Baltimore is throwing darts not handicapping. Stand by that. I hope he gets to NY with a Triple Crown on the line. It would be a mad house. Would be worth a lot more to beat him in NY then Baltimore w a TC on the line as well. Its a win win. Beat him & get paid or he wins and witness history.