Is 3w the place to be in the Derby?

[sekrah]

I think a good study would be to look at the first quarter fractions of horses by starting gate.

Theoretically we should see faster fractions being set by the inside and outside horses, and since both are likely to be inside or far outside on the first turn, you are seeing this set of numbers showing the 3 path, which is most likely to be occupied by horses with middle 7-14 post positions, as the strongest path.  The inside and outside horses are far more likely to distribute their energy poorly.

[miff]

Finish position is relevant to the fig too often to discount it. Horses 3-4 wide losing ground in fast early going usually can be picked up with a blotter somewhere late in the race, not so much for ground losers running slowly early.Obviously, fast early slow late always applies.Losing ground, hung wide while running fast into the first turn is disasterous and possibly a trip that cannot be overcome as to final placing.

Lots of data to support this, pick up charts for any normal day of racing and look for the the scenarios that fit this discussion.


In the perfect world of all things equal in a race all of the time, ground loss critical but that only happens maybe half the time.

[sekrah]

Another idea I want to throw out there is this: Horses that are 4+ wide in the first turn are more likely to hit their wall earlier in the stretch, and when you only have 5 payout spots to 20 horses, when these horses who may be pairing up are finding themselves behind 8 horses in the stretch (because they were so wide), the jockey puts the whip away and just gallops home, blowing the pair-up. If it\'s a 8-horse field, they are likely to keep whipping and pushing for the 4th spot because it\'s cash in their pocket.

[TGJB]

I give up.

[tjo]

Horses moving through outside paths on the turn cover more ground, but also are on a less severe radius which may suit some horses more than others.  Banking might come into play as well as the general tendency of traffic to be denser closer to the rail.  None of this seems measurable from a figure standpoint.  I typically will watch a lot of replays to \'fine tune\' interpretations of the numbers, especially on days like the Derby.

[miff]

Energy sapped from too much drinking?Briliant advice from an old college professor(not applicable to any of our strings)

\'Never debate a subject matter with someone who knows much more or much less than you about it, you cannot win\"

[Furious Pete]

You shouldn\'t.

[Rich Curtis]

Furious Pete wrote:

\"have you ever done some studies where you\'ve been trying to \"weigh down\" the effects of paths to the figures from turns were there have been obviously a slow pace (it really should almost only apply to the 1st turn)? I think those races may be the most notorious producers of what I\'ve seen Miff been calling \"ground-loaded\" figures or something like that, and it would be really interesting to me if someone ever did a study like that using the TG-figures. Because if that was the case, if Miff is proven right, then the next horrible question that remains to be answered is just how big an effect a \"slow pace path\" really should be given.\"

This will get you nowhere unless you take into consideration where the wide horse was in relation to the early lead--because the same principle that you are relying on for your groundloss-into-crawling-pace point is also at work in a manner that is totally unrelated to groundloss. It is even at work with horses who ran the whole way on the rail.

In other words, a pace that is slow enough to defang groundloss is also slow enough to raise hell with speed figures in a whole bunch of other ways.

 Unless you\'re content to pull a pebble off a beach, you need to take this thing further.

[TGJB]

You can add to the list arguing (or even conversing) with those that intentionally don\'t want to see. The string on the other board re Competitive Edge is as disingenuous as the one about Condo Commando.

Guys-- my point had nothing to do with betting the race or the result of it. I bet against Competitive Edge (and Condo Commando) myself, and took public positions against them. But there is only one place on planet earth where someone would say CE\'s last race was 6 points slower than Gimme Da Lute\'s and no faster than the Hillbilly horse ran twice. There is no form of handicapping, analysis or figure making that could ever get you to a result so ridiculous, save one. Beyer doesn\'t make mistakes that big. Same for Power Alert\'s race two back. No matter who any of us bet.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You can add to the list arguing (or even
> conversing) with those that intentionally don\'t
> want to see. The string on the other board re
> Competitive Edge is as disingenuous as the one
> about Condo Commando.
>
> Guys-- my point had nothing to do with betting the
> race or the result of it. I bet against
> Competitive Edge (and Condo Commando) myself, and
> took public positions against them. But there is
> only one place on planet earth where someone would
> say CE\'s last race was 6 points slower than Gimme
> Da Lute\'s and no faster than the Hillbilly horse
> ran twice. There is no form of handicapping,
> analysis or figure making that could ever get you
> to a result so ridiculous, save one. Beyer doesn\'t
> make mistakes that big. Same for Power Alert\'s
> race two back. No matter who any of us bet.


The funniest part is the clown suggesting Vito made more than you this weekend.

Let\'s see.  Vito posts a 2/1 winner, and gets props from the stooges over there for it. I mean, they celebrated that accomplishment.

You post a clear 26/1 key that triggers nice vertical payouts.

Yet somehow Vito won more.

More fun with numbers.

[TGJB]

Paul-- You know you\'re talking to deaf people over there, right?

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Paul-- You know you\'re talking to deaf people over
> there, right?


Deaf and dumb.

Don\'t shortchange them.

He deleted my account, because he couldn\'t handle the truth. After he deletes this one, I\'m done.

I have 2 dogs, user names after them.  I don\'t have anymore dog names to use, so I guess I\'ll just stop.

When you need a good laugh, its an easy site to get one.

[Billz2000]

I\'m realitively new to TG but not to racing.  One thing that I have noticed whether it be in sprints or in routes some tracks play better on the outside.  Being wide at Belmont is not the same as being wide on the Aqudect inner track.  Actually being wide at Belmont appears to be an advantage, running freely without have to hold your horse.  Also, wide at Santa Anita in sprint races also appears to be an advantagous postion.  Just one persons thoughts.

[miff]

The \"Belmont sweep\" of the late 80\'s was as real as it gets, the wider the better on many days.