Hiyo Silver!

[bdhsheets]

SC:

Hope you\'re sleeping better with the updated stats on Mr Dickinson. Just in case:

New top by 1pt+= 90--10%--44%--36%--10%

If Tapit pairs, he doesn\'t hit the board........

[Silver Charm]

Did you also see Wimbletons Stats (ie-Baffert).

After race 4pts or more off top--597=11%--26%--27%--36%. When they go bad Bob will grind\'em up won\'t he. The numbers don\'t lie.

And the people at the BloodHorse are picking Wimbleton.

You BET I SLEPT GOOD last night.

Also I read somewhere Baffert said his family is staying home. What a joke, when those TV camera lights go on you know Jill will be loitering around somewhere in the background of the camera angle acting like she doesn\'t know whats going on.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I wish I could toss Wimbledon with no worries.

His Santa Anita Derby was not competitive but it wasn\'t a complete collapse either. In the modern age, theres plenty of horses that get beat 10 in big races and come back and win their next. It\'s the age of the big number winning and the big setback next.

Additionally, TGJB mentioned something earlier that I think is true. Trainers are attempting to micro manage efforts. Thats the extent of the influence of Performance Figures. This year especially I think the sheet boys have been a factor in the preps.

I want to toss Wimbledon, but is his last effort in this era really any different than Thunder Gulch\'s poorish Bluegrass?

Baffert has demonstrated, to me anyway, he\'s on top of his horses. He\'s always liked this one and I\'m convinced he knows a horse.

I put him in the migraine category.

[HP]

Way off Chuckles. Thunder Gulch backed up about two points in the Blue Grass. Not even CLOSE to what Wimbledon did last out. Not only that, but Thunder Gulch PAIRED UP numbers BEFORE the Blue Grass which were good enough to win that Derby.

HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think its a different era is all. If you go by 1995 you can\'t factor the huge effort. The faster horse/improved effort era is here. (At least thats my belief) I\'m just not sure these comparisons on older tried and true patterns are as applicable.

From the worktab:

Saturday:

Wimbledon seemed more uncomfortable with the surface than usual during his extended stay on the racetrack. Not the prettiest mover among the Derby contenders stabled here, Wimbledon appeared stiffer than usual while jogging one mile upon entering the track. He only leveled out slightly the final time around during his subsequent 1 1/2-mile gallop

Sunday:

Work of the Day - Wimbledon (five furlongs in :59.70 seconds)- What a difference a day makes. For a horse who did not move very smoothly either jogging or galloping the previous morning, WIMBLEDON couldn\'t have worked better over the sloppy going. With Dana Barnes aboard, the gray colt broke off approximately four lengths behind stablemate Determined, caught his mate approaching the three-eighths pole midway on the turn, fanned out into the five path coming off the turn and after changing leads finished full of run under a little hand urging and one shake of the whip from Barnes inside the sixteenth pole.

What was most impressive is that with the naked eye it didn\'t appear WIMBLEDON was going that fast. But the stopwatch indicated otherwise. After getting an opening quarter and half in :24.79 and :36.51 he completed his final quarter mile in :23.19. The gallop out was equally sharp, six furlongs in 1:12.83 and seven-eighths in 1:26.42!

Granted the track was wet Sunday

[HP]

Chuckles,

You wrote \"I want to toss Wimbledon, but is his last effort in this era really any different than Thunder Gulch\'s poorish Bluegrass?\"

Yes. Wimbledon bounced six points off a top. His last race was his WORST one of the year (I think). In his Blue Grass, Thunder Gulch backed up two points off a pair of tops.

Wimbledon\'s pattern is TOTALLY different from Thunder Gulch. Not even close, in ANY era. If you like him, and you are impressed with his workout, bet your head off! He could win. HP

[Silver Charm]

HP wrote,

\"Not only that, but Thunder Gulch PAIRED UP numbers BEFORE the Blue Grass which were good enough to win that Derby.\"

Dead-on HP not only that but the number Wimleton ran in the LA Derby still isn\'t good enough. Nor what it will take to win this race. Another words he needs a NEW TOP. The Trainer Stats say that happens 10% of the time and even that may not be fast enough if it is a mild top.

Also one additional item to think about, Wimbleton ran that New Top in the La Derby where I believe Bafferts Kafwain tested positve for Clenbuterol last year and was subsequently disqualified. The rules regarding when and how a Trainer can use this performance enhancing medication are very loose in Louisiana.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ll acquiesce to everything said about Thunder Gulch and the pair with the 2 point regression.

But Wimbledon\'s top in the La Derby was superior to Thunder\'s paired tops and I believe superior to his winning Derby figure.

Silver\'s point is more troublesome to me. Can a repeat of the La. Derby win? There is recent trend where the preps are bigger figs for many horses than the Derby itself. I believe theres a group of fast horses in this race and whoever can come back to a top at 10 marks is gonna be a big factor and that includes horses that are 2 or even 3 points below current tops with their contemporaries.

To my mind a horses like Lion Heart and Pollard\'s vision are horses in the off top winning category. They may win, but I\'m nearly certain they won\'t win at 10 marks equaling 9 mark tops.

If Bailey is up on Wimbledon, I\'m willing to have him in my bets. It might be the best Bailey value ever. (Obviously excluding Arcangues)



Post Edited (04-26-04 19:09)