TAP down to 1 for Preakness

[magicnight]

Twitter saying that Materiality is the only Pletcher runner still under consideration for the Preakness. Carpe Diem being pointed to the Belmont.

[jbelfior]

I say if Materiality goes, he goes off the second choice.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[boston]

Right now one can lock into Mat odds at 15.5 to 1.  Maybe that line also factors in that he will not run.  Firing Line around 5-1 and Dortmund around 6-1.

[BitPlayer]

I am curious what considerations are in play in making this decision.  Obviously the purse is one factor and the probability of winning is another.  Would the Preakness or the Belmont be a better addition to a stallion\'s resume?  Which is more likely to negatively impact a colt\'s performance later in the year?

[mlnolan00]

Code: [Select]




I think a primary motivation is the TAP barn have never won a Preakness and thinks this horse is his best chance to win it this year.

Carpe Diem more of an outside run grinder a la Commissioner who can gallop along and hit the board in the Belmont.

After having see Madefromlucky run as a 2yo and in the Rebel, I don\'t think he has enough talent at the moment to be a G1 animal, but the Peter Pan race (while unimpressive to me) shows he is improving.

Todd can run those two B-team horses in the Belmont, which he\'s won twice before, and focus on getting Materiality to run another tenacious race in the Preakness now.

He\'s also going to win the DuPont Distaff on Fri with Stopshoppingmaria who ran 2nd in a productive KEE G1 and now stretches back out as the favorite over same surface and dist where she annexed last year\'s BES Stakes.

That\'s my hypotheses and we\'ll if it\'s true or rejected in a few days.

[big18741]

No Preakness for TAP.

[toppled]

In the words of Turo Escalante: What a surprise.  

Pletcher doesn\'t like sending his Derby horses to the Preakness.  He also knows that his chances of winning the Belmont are much better on 5 weeks rest than 3 races in 5 weeks.  Materiality will be 2nd choice if American Pharoah wins the Preakness & the Belmont favorite if AP doesn\'t.  

For anyone still looking to beat AP in the Preakness: It\'s going to be a 7 or 8 horse field.  There\'s no reason to think that the 2 horses who also had a tough race are going to jump up & beat AP.  There\'s no value unless you get really lucky. Your only reasonable chance to make $ was if Materiality had run & won. There won\'t be any big score to go after & if one does happen you won\'t find it in the sheets.  Go ahead and try, but there will be much better betting opportunities this weekend than the Preakness.  I\'ll be looking for them & if I bet anything on the Preakness it will be something between 1% & 5% of what I put into the Derby.

[johnnym]

Agree,I will have a small tri and super investment..If the rain comes I believe it moves AP up based of his Rebel stakes performance..
Good Luck

[Beau]

Per the horses twitter account, Materiality is running

[Bet Twice]

Maybe TAP hasn\'t broken the news to the horse......according to DRF he is not running.

[louisvilleguy1111]

Beau Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Per the horses twitter account, Materiality is
> running




Nice call on that one, man wish this guy was on twitter we could get all the breaking news....or maybe not.