Good Call Covello

[jerry]

Carpe Diem

[horsegoer]

Covelj...nice wish I was there. Couldn\'t agree with you more.

Also, if this was an \"easy\" race for AP because of the track and lack of a threat in the stretch then the odds are even better he run well for the Belmont.

[miff]

First fig in has AP almost pairing, like TG 2.5, whatever.

Never heard AP has/had a quarter crack but a stone bruise which has him wearing an egg bar shoe with a half plate on his front left foot.Having won 3 races that way, it is now irrelevant imo.

Only question left to answer is can AP do it again in three weeks.AP easily racetrack fastest of all of them.

[ringato3]

\"Easy\" races are deceptive.

Re-watch big Browns preakness.  I got tired of betting against him after watching run for about 1/4 mile and destroy the field.  M

Not saying AP is big brown. But not saying he isn\'t...

Rob

[beazley]

Just a quick comment. I don\'t know anyone well and vice versa is certainly true.  I\'m a life long horse fan, handicapper and even owned a few dozen but family comes first these days. But I learn a lot from your posts and miff\'s.  I\'ll disappear again after the triple crown for a while.  I like this board a lot especially when people share their opinion and justification without being redundant or argumentative.  After that it\'s wasted breath. Enjoy Vegas!

[ringato3]

AP certainly not \"easily\" faster than materiality.   Race track, TG, beyer, or any other measure.  

Same range.   And materiality earned it, no suck up, phony wide, etc.  

If AP wins in 3 weeks, he will have ran the gauntlet.  Unless there are defections, a real field is lining up.    Arguably a faster one than any recent triple crown candidate faced.   (Silver charm faced a few fast ones)

Rob

[horsegoer]

Your correct ring. Actually what I mean is I think he regressed, to what degree idk but I think a lot, due to the fact he was not fully asked and the track and because of this I think the backward move is a positive for his next race.

[ringato3]

Horse,

Not sure I understand your post completely.

A backwards move wouldn\'t be a positive sign for AP.   Unless u meant a positive sign if u wanted to attack him in the belmont.

As for whether he went backwards, rough call.   Slowest preakness on the clock in 50 years and a horse with 12 as a previous top ran second.  Obviously a bunch of \"no shows\".  But when a horse blows open a triple crown field by 7, how far backward could he have gone, if at all.


Rob

[HP]

I wouldn\'t be surprised if he backed up here and I don\'t think it matters too much.  He went to the lead and did his thing and he didn\'t need the whole tank to do it.

[Toga]

If AP\'s TG fig comes back -1 I would wait in a line around the corner over night to bet against him in the Belmont. I would love to see a triple crown winner but I have learned over the years to not fall victim to the visually impressive Preakness win. He did what he was suppose to do, now he will have to earn it at the big sandy and to me, from a betting prospective, spells opportunity especially because he figures to be 1-9. Even if he is the most likely winner I will take a stab at beating him because the price is sure to be right and if I lose I get to see a triple crown winner. It\'s a win/win!

[miff]

No chance AP 1-9 in Belmont and his Preakness number is irrelevant as to how he will perform in the Belmont.AP\'s figure will be the best effort using creative license, not nearly enough points of reference to go off the horses or the clock.

[Toga]

Do you think he will be 2-1? With a triple crown at stake?

[beazley]

AP can still offer value in exacta and tri keys as today\'s race showed. Verve was over bet in the win pool but a $60 exacta under a 4-5 shot was square.

[moosepalm]

Toga Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If AP\'s TG fig comes back -1 I would wait in a
> line around the corner over night to bet against
> him in the Belmont.


That line started forming on this board five minutes after he won the Derby.  Counting I\'ll Have Another\'s failure to make the starting gate, nine horses in the past eighteen years alone have failed to grab the brass ring.  There were four more before them, going back to the prior triple crown winner, and those include Spectacular Bid, Alysheba and Sunday Silence.  So, forgetting for just a moment, the figures, on history alone, you\'re going against a horse at odds on to do what thirteen consecutive  horses have failed to do, and some of them are deservedly called all-time greats.  The Belmont has provided a \"beat the chalk\" feeding frenzy nearly every year, even when the Crown wasn\'t on the line.  This year certainly won\'t be any different.

[Toga]

Well said. That is all I was pointing out.