AP,OMG

[TGJB]

Thoro-Graph players have done EXTREMELY well in the Belmont. It\'s been a little while since the last one but this is one TC race we have historically crushed, using mostly figures and patterns. The weak one has been the Preakness.

I count 7 scores since 1990, not counting Victory Gallop, and two other obvious winners that were short, don\'t remember whether I had the exacta or not. Also, I still haven\'t gotten over running 2-3 behind Ruler On Ice for a ton.

[Bet Twice]

What basis are you using to judge the worst triple crown series/candidate ever? Beyers?

[jerry]

If you care about dosage, Mubtaahij has 1-0-2-0-1 for a DI of 1.00 and a CD of 0.00. Very uncharacteristic breeding for a horse racing in North America. Verve also gets 2 pts. in each of his stamina wings. I don\'t know if either of these two is fast enough but at least they shouldn\'t run out of gas.

[jerry]

Amen. This is a once in a year betting opportunity. No guarantee on a win but a big promise on value. Just wish the field was bigger.

[joemama]

Here\'s a comment by the trainer of Mubtaahij that he made at the Trainers Dinner before the Kentucky Derby.

\"He\'s got a lot of miles under his legs. He is a tough horse and there are no doubts he\'ll get a mile and half.\"

And I was thinking the Kentucky Derby was a mile and 1/4 race.  Go figure.

[meatloaf]

The Sun article quotes a surprisingly diplomatic Bobby Frankel about Funny Cide\'s workout, in which he evidently ran off.  I seems to remember his real response:  that horse is toast. (with earthier language).

Big difference:  not just 3 seconds, but also AP tractable, eager and wanting to do more but pretty much always doing what his rider asks.

[miff]

\"we have historically crushed, using mostly figures and pattern\"


JB,

Interesting, a long time friend/sheet pattern reader tells me the Belmont the worst for that endeavor.Last one he cites as solid was Empire Maker.Not a avid pattern reader myself, but see nothing this year that sticks out, especially with the derby/preakness being kinda tough figs to take as gospel.

Mike

[TGJB]

In almost every case my opinions were on record publicly beforehand, some of them in the Post.

Maybe he was reading the wrong sheets...

[Topcat]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Moose,
>
> Understand your point.  
>
> But will make one counterpoint.  U said u can\'t
> forgive a bad derby.   I don\'t know, I think this
> is a pretty good angle.   Birdstone, summer bird,
> palace malice and Union rags all ran mediocre
> derbies.   Frosted and materiality ran better than
> all except maybe summer bird (from memory he got s
> ground loss loaded figure that made him look good
> on figures heading into the belmont)
>
> Good luck
>
> Rob


Birdstone wanted NO PART of that sealed track in Smarty\'s Derby.  Tossout.

[Topcat]

Focus959 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What happened to the \"we\'re seeing something
> special\" crop, a la TGJB? That sure faded fast!

With the qualifying phrase \"at normal American distances\", the high rating may well still hold . . .

[TGJB]

Faded fast how, according to whom???

[ringato3]

Not the only difference.

Funny code had some stout stamina influences on the dam side.   Didn\'t help because he was rank.

But AP nothing but sprinters in the female family.  

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

Isn\'t it fair to assume that after winning 5 routes up to a distance of 10f that AP\'s female side has been genetically surpassed by the stamina influenced male side?


Mike

[ringato3]

Mike

He proved he can run well at 1 1/4 while emptied out and hit 30+ times.  Belmont is a different animal IMO.

Beyer wrote much more eloquently the point I was trying to make yesterday about handicapping this race differently.   The more we go down the path of precocious pedigrees, the breed gets more fragile and distance challenged.  I do think that is a factor in the 30 year hiatus.  

Tough horse to take IMO, relative to odds.   Think the derby is more representative of his distance capabilities than the preakness.  I think he got a comfortable trip and was all out.

Expecting a less comfortable trip Saturday and as the big mouthed and ignorant owner of California chrome said last year \"it is unfair that fresh horses can attack a horse that had to go through the grind\".  Think materiality and frosted are runners with fast figs and less wear and tear.  And as much as Pletcher is borderline horrific in the derby, he gets them to run in the Belmont.

Would love to see the undercard to get the juices going.   I know Bayern is gonna look slow and vulnerable on TG but his woody Stephens at belmont last year was his best race IMO.  Expecting a big run.

Rob

[jerry]

We\'ll find out how far Lord At War can carry him. Others with better pedigree have come up short. Not to mention he\'ll be challenged by at least one horse who is rested and as fast as he is. I\'ve seen this movie before.