American Pharoah will run in the Travers

[rezlegal]

I believe \" upset\" was first used in connection some Canadian Tennis match in the 1920\'s. Because of the horse of the same name its origin is often mistaken-- see Oxford Dictionary which has used it as a noun and verb.
Regarding all the discussion of pick 3s and pick 4s if AP is the lock some believe and with apologies to Steve Christ, doesn\'t that provide an opportunity to includes \"b\" and \"c\" horses with more aggression on other tickets? Also suggest you take a look at pick 4 Belmont day v. the pick 3 ending with AP- because of full fields the spread was huge.

[ringato3]

Rez

Belmont day and travers days are apples and oranges.   Pharaoh was 4/5 in the win pool and a bit higher than that in the multis.  

He is going to be 1/5 or lower on Saturday.  1/5 the price.  Different ball game.

Rob

[Mathcapper]

Mike - wish I had some keen insight to offer, but my initial assumption is always that the multis will be bet in accordance with their win odds.

In the case of Big P, it wouldn\'t surprise me if he\'s actually overbet in the win pool vis-a-vis the Pk4, being that he\'s a once-in-a-generation TC winner that may entice the public to punch out souvenir win tickets on regardless of odds.

Either way, if he goes off at same $.10 on the dollar he did in the Haskell, the Pk4 should be solid if he\'s out of the sequence since most other horses, if not all, in that race will be double-digit odds.

fwiw

[SoCalMan2]

magicnight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Anybody know where the current sports usage of
> the word upset comes from?\"
>
> I\'ve read that - contrary to popular belief - it
> is NOT because that is the name of the only horse
> to ever beat Man o\' War.
>
> BTW, in that race (pre-starting gate), the big red
> one was turned sideways when the wire was lifted,
> and he spotted Upset quite a few lengths.
>
> Will add that 2/3 TC winners \"lost\" the Travers,
> although Affirmed did finish first but was DQ\'d.
>
> Jim Dandy beat Gallant Fox in 1930 Travers.
> Whirlaway the only TC/Travers winner.

Man O War did not lose as a 3yo. His only loss came in his 2yo year and in addition to the botched start, he was giving Upset a considerable amount of weight which was compounded by the seriously delayed start (the lead pads were in the saddle for a considerable time). I am pretty sure the race was a sprint so the considerable ground given up by the off poorly was dearer.

[FrankD.]

upset

[miff]

Interesting that Fraud-sted is 6-l on the ML while Texas Red is 8-1, thought they would be equal or Red the shorter price.

Upstart @ 15-1,if he runs, should attract some $$$ from sheet readers and projects a perfect inside trip with an alert break.

AP looks $2.40 in price should he win.

[Fairmount1]

I guess my line is way off base.  I see AP at lower than 1 to 5 likely until possibly the last minute or so and possibly coming up to 1 to 5 at post.  

I also think Texas Red is likely 2nd choice but guess KM recent winners might be why Frosted listed as 2nd on m/l.  

As for Upstart, I see him going off over 20-1 if he runs.  

What is the minimum payoff in Ny?  I am guessing $2.10 if he goes off at 1-20 (highly unlikely).

[Fairmount1]

I guess my line is way off base.  I see AP at lower than 1 to 5 likely until possibly the last minute or so and maybe coming up to 1 to 5 at post.  

I also think Texas Red is likely 2nd choice but guess KM recent winners might be why Frosted listed as 2nd on m/l.  

As for Upstart, I see him going off over 20-1 if he runs.  

What is the minimum payoff in Ny?  I am guessing $2.10 if he goes off at 1-20 (highly unlikely).

[ringato3]

Fairmount,

I don\'t think you have to worry about 1-20.

I think 1-9 early, maybe 1-5 as the race goes off when the \"value players\" grab the others at what they perceive to be good prices.

Mike,

Not sure that Upstart will attract enough \"sheet readers\" money to bring him lower than his 15-1 ML.  Maybe 12-1.  How could anybody bet him off the Derby and Haskell?  I bet him in both, at least as a \"use\" in horizontal bets.  No thanks for me.  (not because of the distance, the horse just isn\'t in form.  I don\'t care how many more good workouts he has.  He had good workouts before the Derby and Haskell as well.  When they sour, they sour.

There just isn\'t a drop of speed to even entertain AP early.  Could see Kent trying to be aggressive and get the stalk trip, because Kent is a notorious race rider.  (amongst other things, but i won\'t cast apsersions)

Looking like a bad betting race period.  (from somebody who has been betting against AP since April..........)

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

Saw a little life in Upstarts last since he was coming off a long layoff. Gotta drink lots of Kool Aid to think a horse can have route bottom off 90 days at gr 1 level.If Upstart runs, think he will move forward quite a bit possibly out-tripping Fraud-sted and Texas Red.Tough read for me on Texas Red as to whether that last up close trip (for him)was a gut wrencher or indicating an improving horse.

Surrounding pick 4 sequence will dictate for me how to go.


Mike

[horsegoer]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Baffert\'s prior record at SPA completely
> irrelevant as to whether AP will win or lose on
> Sat.

100% correct

[FrankD.]

Mike,

Per Keith D. Texas Red\'s last being close up was all on brother Kent sensing crawling pace by Japan, hardly gut wrenching as he galloped out another 1/8 after very strongly and your boy Fraud-sted would not have gone by him if they went around again.Per trainer as of last weekend Red was doing super, I\'ve heard the same conflicting training reports on Red since that you mentioned the other day.

I said it here before Upstart needs a trainer change Violette clueless with this one IMHO, mismanaged from GO. If Upstart with a rail trip moves even a little forward off the Haskell that will be the value in verticals with the 5th choice being 2nd or 3rd.
AP, Red, Fraud, Keen Ice and Upstart in that order is how I see the wagering.Smart Transition may even push Upstart for the 5th spot, he may very well be 20/1.

I\'m on my way back to civilization tomorrow unless my Travers seats fetch the 3K for 2 in section D or 2K for 2 in L. If so I may become a regular at Belterra!
Not likely, back to the back yard on Friday.

FrankD.

[miff]

Hi Frank,

Same feel on the race.Thinking of driving up Friday just to attend Chris Kay\'s Red Jacket ceremony f-king idiot.


Mike

[ringato3]

Ok frank.

I will bite.   How was upstart mismanaged?

Raced the three preps in Florida.  Ran well in all 3.  Gets a mulligan for the race he won and got DQed as rhe track was a nightmare that day.   Horridly slow.

Got good spacing into the derby.  As a sheets guy u can\'t complain about that.

Didn\'t run a step in the derby.

Ran so bad in the derby can\'t blame the distance.   (Despitethe contrary postings here by many)

Could have tried preakness or belmont but decided races in Florida may have put him over top and rested for Haskell and Travers, which u do, if u believe u have a runner.

I think he was awful in the haskell, but have heard contra opinion by mike, so maybe not as bad as I think.   Maybe.

Where are the mistakes?

Rob

[FrankD.]

Rob,

You have me bored in Cincinnati !

Let\'s go back to day 1 breaking his maiden and coming back 9 days later. Another big number in the Champagne then right back in BC 27 days later shipping cross country. So now we have a 2yr old running 2 potential knock out numbers for a young horse running 4 times in 10 weeks. Does he take a break? No he is cranked up to run another effort in the Holy Bull on January 24th of his 3yr old season.

The next 2 in FL may be circumstance more than trainer mismanagement. Gulf strip played heavy this winter and both FOY & FL Derby days had heavy winds to factor in. Both were very hard races on him,the bottom line is the horse was spent by the end of March.

OK Derby fever, lets go, lots of really good horses run clunkers at CHD and came back for solid campaigns. The 16 hole didn\'t help matters! 90 days off, going in the Jim Dandy, nope let\'s go to the shore last minute, that\'s it want no part of AP, no Travers it\'s PA Derby, wait a minute let\'s take a shot we drew the rail again!!!

I\'ll rest my case on how he has been handled and did not wager a nickel on him in either Derby or Haskell. However as a kool aide drinker at 20/1 in an other wise non betable race vertically he provides some value in tris and supers as a likely 5th choice.

Good luck,

Frank D.