American Pharoah will run in the Travers

[toppled]

https://twitter.com/hashtag/AmericanPharoah?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[Chas04]

the pharoah is not only winning the travers but going to put on a show for the ages. get your popcorn ready!

[Fairmount1]

That is quite a bold prediction.  

The bigger question I hope to see the board debate this week is whether to bet against him or not.  

He appears to be unbeatable but at 1 to 9, I am always looking for a reason to bet a little to win a lot when opportunity arises.  

I don\'t see a reason to bet against the horse.  But Baffert\'s recent Spa record and the way Kiarin is going, along with Texas Red or Upstart as possibilities, I will have to really consider it as the week carries on and the Travers Day card is released to find a multirace play.

Others\' early thoughts?

[miff]

Baffert 2-30 at SPA in stake routes since 2009 but that\'s irrelevant as none of the previous 30 were AP.

[TGJB]

Welllll..... maybe not completely irrelevant. All of them weren\'t somebody else either. You gotta like it better that he\'s not ten for twenty if you\'re betting against him...

[miff]

Baffert\'s prior record at SPA completely irrelevant as to whether AP will win or lose on Sat.

[TGJB]

Really? No matter how big the sample? Does past record ever matter, for anyone?

[miff]

Think if you filter the 30 Baffert SPA runners you won\'t find any that:

1. Was the only horse in the race to win at the distance of the race.

2. Was the only horse in the race to win with 126 lbs (3x)

3. Defeated every contender in the race

4. Came in undefeated that year with a bunch of grade 1\'s

5. Was fastest in race

6. On paper looks to be only speed.

Now if any of the prior 30 Baffert runners fit this profile, those would be relevant to me otherwise think the stat is not applicable to AP.

Given that the SPA results are borderline insane, maybe that will get AP.

[jbelfior]

Somewhere this week you will read a quote from Nick Zito on how well Frammento is doing.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

Even if we assume all those things are relevant it doesn\'t mean there isn\'t something else that is also relevant. Pletchers record at GP is not the same as at CD, Baffert\'s at Mth is not the same as Sar. Obviously not the only thing to consider, but one of them, especially at the price.

[miff]

If those things are not totally relevant, what do you use to handicap a race?

There is one reason to consider gambling against AP on Sat and it has nothing to do with Baffert, the horse or any stats. If you could see the mutual printouts of the Travers, for all pools, you would salivate. AP will be overweight x5 creating monstrous overlays on the remaining combinations.From a pure risk/reward prop, you almost have to use some money with AP off the ticket regardless of his credentials.There are very few occasions when the pools are as far skewed at they will be Saturday.

[Chas04]

The odds will definitely will be incredible if you want to bet anyone else. Just like in the Belmont and every race he runs in until he\'s retired. How can anyone make a logical argument that he\'s going to lose?  Did you see that work yesterday??? The only thing that beats him is a Barbaro type situation...and I hope to g-d that doesn\'t happen to any horse in a race.

[SoCalMan2]

Chas04 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The odds will definitely will be incredible if you
> want to bet anyone else. Just like in the Belmont
> and every race he runs in until he\'s retired. How
> can anyone make a logical argument that he\'s going
> to lose?  Did you see that work yesterday??? The
> only thing that beats him is a Barbaro type
> situation...and I hope to g-d that doesn\'t happen
> to any horse in a race.


I thought Firing Line gave him a run for his money.  I do not know/recall the sheets of the horses in the Travers well enough, but I see him being put to the task when he races against the older horses at Keeneland. AS to the Travers, if he is softened up early, and there is a horse in the race that can run a -2 or -3, he could have a rough time of it at the finish line.  I just do not know the prospective Travers field well enough.

[shanahan]

flying back to NY reading the board, and after witnessing his work yesterday - there were many more the the 2K people reported there - he was absolutely flying.  To see him inhale the other workers was pretty cool.  1:23?  That\'s more than fast, and he was floating.  It\'s special.  Even Bob B can\'t find an excuse not to go.  I\'d just enjoy this one.
See you all there Saturday.

[jbelfior]

No one to soften him up early. Check the nomination pp\'s on the race (NYRA site). That is unless Uncle Wayne has something up his sleeve.

I\'m thinking this is the last one and we are going to see something pretty special on Saturday.


Good Luck,
Joe B.