Liams Map

[ringato3]

Baffert has to love this decision.

To me, this has a HUGE impact on the race.   Look at top 10 Contenders.   Almost zero confirmed early speed.

AP has a big tactical advantage now.   Beholder will sit off the triple crown winner.   Horses like Tonalist and honor code up against it.

Obviously a lot of time left, but from what the pace scenario looks like, u could see a Ghostzapper / roses in May type scenario with AP and Beholder.

As if I couldn\'t hate Pletcher enough, he had to take the starch out of the biggest race of the year, to run in the BC Mile.   Ugh.

Rob

[bellsbendboy]

Agree, but Baffert has his first chance to train AP, and to be objective, not sure how good he is.  Toyed with sophs without ever working in company!

As for Pletcher, neutral, he runs a factory; and he\'s good at it.  bbb

[Flighted Iron]

Ringato,

  Plenty of starch remaining, moreover we haven\'t an idea how the track will play.maybe someone will alter their mounts\' running style ala Frosty the Frosted Frostman.

 Flighted Iron

[ringato3]

BBB,

You are right, TAP runs a factory and makes lots of money.   A success by any measure.

All I will say is that no trainer shits the bed on big racing days like he does.   Not now and nobody in my 30 years of watching this sport closely.   And nobody has run more talented 3 year olds out of form than him either.   All the money spent and the quality flesh and fast 3 year old preps, for him to have his derby record be as horrible as his has been, is a black mark.

It is a tough game.  So winning is hard.   But on how many big days do his horses not even show up?   Run last in race after race?   This years belmont stakes day and breeders cup preview day are just a couple examples.

Gimme Baffert over him every day and twice on Sunday\'s.

Rob

[jp702006]

I would be surprised if Frosted altered his running style for the Classic. It didn\'t work out to well the last time he tried to run with AP early.

[Flighted Iron]

Mentioned Frosty as an example only.Doubting it will happen again unless there\'s an obvious recognizable speed bias.If there is in fact a front end bias and he\'s drawn inside of AP i would send the Frostman.

[Flighted Iron]

With all that said can you be counted on to go in against LM in the mile?

[miff]

The job of keeping AP honest on the front end now rests with Beholder, doubtful pace will be on the fast side.

[MonmouthGuy]

The fact that TAP is choosing to run LM for $1MM at 8F instead of $5MM at 10F off recent works is going to factor in to my thought process. Question was asked yesterday, new top, pair, off, X? I think off. Very interesting at 10-1 in the Classic, will try to beat him at 4/5 in dirt mile.

[FrankD.]

An earlier post praised TAP as a businessman, nothing wrong with winners share of a million bucks.

Most successful businessmen are realist; could he get 10F without a lil help?
Out of competition testing with KY jurisdiction calling the shots would make it very difficult for that help, be it, stacking of legal drugs and or supplements etc...

All PED\'s and or supplements in  horse racing, cycling, track and field have 2 main objectives, slow down or decrease build up of lactic acid and get more air into the lungs. Hence the term \"the second breakout\" coined by NY punters back in the Oscar Barrera days. Ever noticed all the so called justly or not \"juice\" trainers for the past 30 years go to the front sometimes in insane fractions and not only do not tire they pull away \"second breakout\" in the stretch.

Will be calling Rezlegal if TAP files suit for libel!

Frank D.

[Michael D.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Liam\'s Map heading for the BC mile per TAP.


ouch.

LM picking up 8 or 9 lbs, Keen Ice losing 4. how many people know that KI is faster than LM at the BC weights? I\'d say 90% of the money does not. and KI already has the big one going a mile and a quarter, while LM is untested at 10f.

now LM\'s in the Mile, and, at very low odds, you can\'t bet on him or against him.

further, Honor Code will now get Javier. I\'m not a big fan of HC going 10f, but with JJ up he\'s another that\'s tough to bet on or against.

and KI gets the guy currently on suspension for riding drunk. wow.

two great looking races a day ago, now one is useless and the other compromised.

[ringato3]

Michael,

AGree with everything you say and the conclusion.

to me this makes both races EXTREMELY less interesting.

Sure, based on sheets and number power, the Classic is still going to look interesting to people, particularly TG users.  But anybody that factors race dynamics into their handicapping can\'t like Tonalist, Keen Ice or Honor Code.  Miff exactly right that Beholder the one to keep AP honest and Beholder doesn\'t run that way anymore.  This isn\'t the same mare who set incredibly fast fractions going 6 furlongs a few years ago.  She rates comfortably now.  And you can bet ANYTHING you want that going 1 1 1/4 against the colts there is ZERO chance she engages AP early in the race.  Sit a length or so off and hope you are better late.  I would do that with her I am as I can be that they will too.  

Makes for a non-contested to slow pace, with a bunch of \"fast\" horses at decent odds all pace/trip compromised.  

And a favorite, who on the merits, will be overbet based on being a huge public horse and a Triple Crown winner, nonetheless having a huge pace advantage, thus making the fact that he is an underlay irrelevant.

Ugly ugly ugly.

Rob

[MonmouthGuy]

Understand, but 55% win share of $1,000,000 is essentially = to 10% show share of $5,000,000 with no upside. The place share of the Mile is essentially = to 5th in the Classic.  Raises enough questions for me to make the Mile betable.

[miff]

Mon,

Considerations about Liam\'s possible stallion value probably played a part in the decision. Liam looks 60% probable in the mile vs maybe like 15-20% in the Classic,TAP knows that. Breeders also love fast/well bred milers at stud, not only classic distance types, a win in the BC mile is not as significant as the Classic,but it\'s meaningful $$$,well beyond the purse.

If Liam goes off or trains poorly, he\'s not running in any race.Lays over on all speed/pf figs and may be shortest priced horse on the card.If one is tossing Liam, it\'s probably a bounce scenario.

Good luck
Mike

[ajkreider]

The weight angle has been overlooked a lot.  Tonalist and HC spotted LM a ton of weight in the Whitney (more than a point\'s worth). And LM was somehow light in the Woodward too.