Beholder is Out

[Lost Cause]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Remember having the same feeling when Casino Drive
> scratched out of the belmont and i already didnt
> like Big Brown.


uggh MJ you had to bring back that memory.  Ive been trying to delete that one for years now..

[mjellish]

Sorry.  Bad form on my part.  Thank god for Jack Daniels.

[ringato3]

TGJB

Personally, I\'d rather agree with my wife, which rarely happens, than agree with Rick B, but I have to say the back end of the sequence Saturday is a weak betting card.  (Translation - hard to bet against GH or AP IMO.)

A couple points:

1.   I bought the seminar and I heard the cases TGJB made with regards to both the turf mile and the turf.   Let\'s just say, those two races will either make TG loyalists a lot of money or make them feel foolish.   The TG  numbers for the euros don\'t look accurate.   And I know that isn\'t a one off statement as have heard the same thing from Rags users for years about the rags numbers.  Perhaps the use of lasix for the first time makes this a bit of an optical illusion, but a lot of euros come here year after year with average turf numbers and routinely rout our horses.   Here we have a really successful horse, with tactical speed, drawing the rail, with a nice rabbit to stalk.   Betting against him is hoping he is over the top or MAYBE a slow break from the rail, which happens with euros quite often, and then he gets buried and perhaps rank.   Does anybody really believe this horses best race is the same as big blue kittens best race or actually worse than red rifles best race.   Good luck if u do.

2.  Different situation with AP.   I truly believe in a normally run race he would be an overbet favorite.   But how exactly is this going to be a normally run race.   Which horse will be within two lengths of him early or alternatively make him run a fair pace.   With beholder in the race, I doubted the pace would be fair.   With her out of the race, are u expecting Frosted to attack early.  Yes, it happened once, but didn\'t work for frosted and the trainer clearly didn\'t want that to be the case, the late jockey change caused a change of strategy that the new jockey unilaterally decided.  Hard to see anything but s belmont stakes type pace scenario.    In that case, MAYBE if Tonalist holds the rail and gets a pocket trip, he can outrun AP late, but a big maybe.  Honor code and keen ice have ZERO shot with a slow pace.   I know this is a sheets board, but ignoring extreme pace scenarios (hot or slow) is poor handicapping.  I make it 80 percent we get a slow pace.   In that scenario, AP is a coin flip to win IMO as he has both number power and will benefit from the pace.   That means 3-2 he wins.   He goes off about there.  And I may be understating the coin flip chances with a slow pace.  

Looking for value elsewhere besides the turf and the classic

Rob

[mjellish]

Rob,

A quick question.  How much do you think the surface, turf and main, will influence the outcome of those last two races, assuming yielding turf and fast main that has taken a lot of water over the past week?

[ringato3]

MJ

Very hard to say, since I am not there and actually haven\'t watched today\'s replays yet as have been traveling for business.   But I will watch the replays and monitor tomorrow.

My suspicion is that the main track won\'t be affected.

And that the turf will.  My non-scientific view on wet turf courses is that the euros do very well in general when they come here and get off turf over the more plush turf courses that are similar to courses in Europe, like belmont, woodbine and keenland (Arlington as well)

The exception might be that with the inside post, if we get a dead rail turf course, golden horn might be compromised, if he doesn\'t break well.   If he breaks well, I don\'t expect him on the rail.   If u watch His replays. He is very comfortable stalking the lead, from the outside.   Sheets purists will say he will then lose ground, but if golden horn is in the 2 path, stalking the rabbit, under a loose hold, forget about the ground loss, katie bar the doors, the race is over.  Of course, IMO

Rob

[mjellish]

Agree with most of this, but not really the part about the Euro runners having an edge on this grass course.  I\'m assuming best case scenario would be a good rated course.  Worst would be soft.  Most likely it will be somewhere in between, and probably fairly yielding.  Many of these Euro runners prefer firm turf.  There are even better Euro runners but these trainers chose to ship these particular ones here, in part because they prefer firm ground and can usually get it and/or can get Lasix.  The can still have the Lasix, but they are not going to get firm ground.

Lot of buzz about the Pizza Man...  Have to think he\'s going to be an underlay, although as someone else pointed out to me his family line has English Channel, Theatrical and Lear Fan in it and they got over soft turf pretty well.

Main track will probably play fair, but this is a completely different track than the CA tracks.  This track does not reward speed as much, and the stretch runners have a better chance IMO.  Lots of buzz about the rail being the place to be yesterday, but that\'s not what I saw at all.  I saw a lot of legitimate favorites winning or running well no matter where they were on the track or what their running style was.  Track was fair.  We\'ll see what we get today and tomorrow.


Just have to say this one more time. Beholder\'s scratch took a TON of value out of the Pick 4 sequence for me because she was an absolute toss to my eye.  She beat nothing in the Pacific Classic, had never won outside of CA, didn\'t ship well, had antibiotics, etc...  Cannot possibly overstate how much dead money I think this just cost me and everyone else who shared that opinion.  But you can only allow yourself so much time to bitch.  I hit the liquor store on the way home and I\'m mostly over it now.  Mostly...

[richiebee]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> Lot of buzz about the Pizza Man...  Have to think
> he\'s going to be an underlay, although as someone
> else pointed out to me his family line has English
> Channel, Theatrical and Lear Fan in it and they
> got over soft turf pretty well.
>

English Channel (Smart Strike) won the Turf Classic on a very soft course at Mth
in 2007. A big day for Smart Strike; his son Curlin won the BC Classic that same
day.

[TGJB]

MJ-- for me it was a couple of bars, and I\'m not over it.

[mjellish]

Yeah, i hit one bar too.  Left that part out.  Figure if i\'m right about the rest of the pick 4 that scratch cost me LOTS because i also dont like AP to win the Classic and am only using him defensively.  Would need something wacky to happen in the mile or juv to hit that ticket anyway.  I have no interest in playing a pick 4 with a likely horse in one of those first 2, GH and AP on it.  Could have maybe got away with it with Beholder still in, but no way now.

On the bright side,

There isnt one.