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Ask the Experts / Re: Schwarznegger - the world is now is chaos
« on: August 30, 2025, 09:28:32 PM »
Ward is 0/16 with his 2YO FTS in T S at Saratoga over the last 5 years.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Del Mar, Pick 5 and CAW's
« on: August 02, 2025, 10:21:54 AM »
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> “Most tracks, confronted with a wagering
> integrity issue, would either bury the information
> or bury their heads in the sand and it would never
> see the light of day. That’s not every track
> across America, but the majority would not want to
> make public any information that would question
> the integrity of wagering on their product.â€
This reminds me of the days when Oscar Barrera would claim a horse and a few days later the horse would win like a stakes horse. Then Oscar got a suspension for what was a minor infraction & barely won a race after that.
I\'ve always believed that they figured out what Oscar was doing, gave him a slap on the wrist & told him never do it again & we won\'t ever tell what we know.
-------------------------------------------------------
> “Most tracks, confronted with a wagering
> integrity issue, would either bury the information
> or bury their heads in the sand and it would never
> see the light of day. That’s not every track
> across America, but the majority would not want to
> make public any information that would question
> the integrity of wagering on their product.â€
This reminds me of the days when Oscar Barrera would claim a horse and a few days later the horse would win like a stakes horse. Then Oscar got a suspension for what was a minor infraction & barely won a race after that.
I\'ve always believed that they figured out what Oscar was doing, gave him a slap on the wrist & told him never do it again & we won\'t ever tell what we know.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Saratoga 4th Exacta Probables
« on: July 30, 2025, 06:10:40 PM »
I had the 3-6 P4, it paid $149.75 for $1, the 4-6 P3 paid $164.75 for $1.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Matt Winn CD 8th Burnie's revenge
« on: June 08, 2025, 10:47:21 AM »
Just a Fair shake also scratched. Down to 4 horses, with WP, EX, and DD betting only. Killed any hopes of doing anything major in this race.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Belmont Recap-That Was a Strong Drive
« on: June 07, 2025, 07:54:42 PM »
I can\'t see Burnham Square getting beat in the Matt Winn unless another horse stops in front of him again.
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Ask the Experts / Re: A quick rundown on some Preakness weekend moments of note.- Part 1
« on: May 19, 2025, 07:53:00 PM »
Don\'t forget Baeza. Sovereignty & Journalism should be close in odds, but 3rd choice will almost certainly be Baeza & none of them will be 4/5. Now I may be wrong since I never saw Journalism more than 3/5 at Pimlico & he went off at even money, but the lesson I learned was don\'t count on a Triple Crown race to have an odds on favorite. In the Belmont even more so, since another horse in the same race just beat him head to head.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Journalism
« on: May 17, 2025, 07:04:04 PM »
I thought he couldn\'t lose against this bunch & Prat almost proved me wrong. Prat should get days for his ride.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Pimlico
« on: May 16, 2025, 12:40:26 PM »
I don\'t have the sheets for this race, but on PPs, I like Amarth because I think she has a class edge. She ran 2nd to Oaks runner up Drexel Hill & beat the Oaks show horse, Bless the Broken last November. Nobody else here has been competitive with the Oaks fillies.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Journalism going in the Preakness
« on: May 13, 2025, 10:19:42 AM »
The difference is that the 2nd & 3rd place finishers in the 2015 Derby came back & ran in the Preakness. Firing Line had finished within a length of American Pharoah & Dortmund was 3 lengths back. In this year\'s Preakness, only 2 other Derby horses are back: Sandman who Journalism beat by 10 in the Derby & American Promise who was 37 lengths behind Journalism. Outside of Sandman & his groupies, I can\'t see any of the other horses taking serious money. The only thing I can see that would bump up Journalism\'s odds would be if the track is totally speed favoring & nothing is coming from behind, since Journalism is going to be around 5th or 6th in the early going.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Journalism going in the Preakness
« on: May 12, 2025, 11:31:10 PM »
8/5 ML is a complete joke. Why don\'t they have the guts to list him at what he will be? 3/5 or possibly even lower.
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Ask the Experts / Re: The Two Week Comeback
« on: May 06, 2025, 01:20:32 PM »
I\'m glad he\'s not coming back in 2 weeks-much better for the horse. Personally, I don\'t believe that a 1 1/4 Belmont at Saratoga is \"The test of the champion\" and winning the Triple Crown is pretty meaningless until the Belmont is 1 1/2 again.
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Ask the Experts / Re: FINAL GAMBIT...
« on: May 05, 2025, 01:51:25 PM »
I loved Sovereignty but I played Final Gambit in all my exotics since he was the best bred to go 1 1/4.I use Formulator and his sire was 16/62(26%) for his progeny going 1 1/4 or longer (he\'s out of a Tapit mare, adding stamina on the bottom as well) and his DRF/Tomlinson distance rating was 433, which towered over the rest of the field.
His best path forward may be to become the next Next.
His best path forward may be to become the next Next.
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Ask the Experts / Re: Derby Oaks Seminar Review
« on: May 04, 2025, 01:30:55 PM »
I\'ve watched the replay numerous times now & one thing that I noticed is that before the 1st turn, both Rispoli & Alvarado had their horses saving ground on the inside. Pretty masterful move by Junior to get himself on the inside early and even more remarkable, he was by himself with gaps in front & behind so that no horse could cause him any problems in the early going. Both riders did a great job moving off the inside when they asked their horses for run. Two world class riders on world class horses. People tend to underrate Junior but think of this: He\'s Bill Mott\'s go to rider when just about every big name jockey would gladly like to be be in that position.