The Two Week Comeback

[toppled]

8/5 ML is a complete joke. Why don\'t they have the guts to list him at what he will be? 3/5 or possibly even lower.

[johnnym]

American Pharoah paid $3.80 to win
Can not see him going of lower then AP

FYI the exotics in AP Preakness paid pretty nice.
GL

[toppled]

The difference is that the 2nd & 3rd place finishers in the 2015 Derby came back & ran in the Preakness.  Firing Line had finished within a length of American Pharoah & Dortmund was 3 lengths back.  In this year\'s Preakness, only 2 other Derby horses are back: Sandman who Journalism beat by 10 in the Derby & American Promise who was 37 lengths behind Journalism. Outside of Sandman & his groupies, I can\'t see any of the other horses taking serious money. The only thing I can see that would bump up Journalism\'s odds would be if the track is totally speed favoring & nothing is coming from behind, since Journalism is going to be around 5th or 6th in the early going.

[Silver Charm]

He is going to be 4/5.

At least 3 points faster than the next fastest horse in the race (Sandman). Unless you want to count the \"freak fig\" from American Promise on the beltway at Colonial. Hey wouldn\'t be surprised to see him do something again with D Wayne.

But Journalism has done it consistently. Truthfully, he should crush this field.

[jbelfior]

I wouldn\'t touch him on Saturday. Certainly not at 4-5. This will be his 4th race since March 1st (his peak race btw), and he\'s run his eyeballs out in all 3. He\'s extremely talented, that\'s obvious, but he\'s not a machine.

As for American Promise, James Quinn warned us years ago in \"Figure Handicapping\" to be leery of the spectacular number achieved around one turn that rarely, if ever, is approached or repeated around two.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

Well said.

BTW I mistakenly omitted Sandmans 1.5 he ran Arkansas Derby Day. Prior to that he was 4 horse. That is what was in my head. The 5.5 he ran Derby Day could be excused for the slop etc. It was an ugly 3W-4W trip. He got beat 12 lengths. He breaks poorly at times. He ducks in and out. The consistency of his inconsistency doesn\'t instill confidence. And I bet him Arkansas Derby Day. TBD what he beat that day......

[Michael D.]

That Sandman sheet doesn\'t look pretty. There\'s one in here that should have a very nice looking pattern. But I don\'t think there\'s going to be a ton of value on anything.

[TGJB]

This seems a good time to point out that 1- TG sheets for the past Preaknesses can be found in the Archives section, and 2- the wet Derby day track produced and accentuated a lot of non efforts.

I am really glad I don’t have to do a seminar for this extremely complicated race. The rest of the card, however…

[TGJB]

And I would add, Journalism will be on at least 80% of the Tri tickets.

[johnnym]

Agree the price leaves little to be desired.

The horse himself paired his last out and didn’t back up more from his top even with a (tu) next to the number. Add to that it was the first time the horse was ever on a sloppy track due to the Cali rules. I would think if it comes up dry Saturday he just may pair his top.
Good luck
John

[jbelfior]

Just took a look at the Preakness archives. Found the jumps that took place at Pimlico out of Keenland priors to be quite interesting.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

This horse was so much the best it was a JOKE!!

Good Lord the courage and will power he displayed.

[Roman]

Your confidence in Fort Washington  got me the pick 3 cold into the Preakness a bunch of times.  Thank you.