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Messages - mholbert

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1
Ask the Experts / Re: ROTW
« on: February 20, 2005, 04:57:33 PM »
i have gnb and ds both at 5/2.  if the morning line held up, i would be playing gnb at anything >= 7/2.  although the outside three would get used very lightly in multi-race wagers, gnb would take the bulk of the play.

2
Ask the Experts / Re: ROTW
« on: February 13, 2005, 09:45:26 AM »
this brings up an interesting question.

where should you put your money:

a horse you feel fair odds is 8/5 (38%) going off at 2/1 or a horse you feel fair odds is 20/1 (5%) going off at 40/1

3
Ask the Experts / Re: GP 1/29: R10 (SM Classic)
« on: January 29, 2005, 01:09:11 PM »
agree this race looks wide open.  the favorite on my line is 6/1.  about 90% of my play is on the pick four, so my main tickets in this race will have classic endeavor (6/1) and stockholder (8/1).

4
Ask the Experts / Re: NTRA - Guaranteed Fix 4
« on: July 09, 2004, 05:56:16 PM »
about 90% of my play is in the pick four.

there were three 2nd choices and a 3rd choice using BRIS rankings.  the point of this is, if something as generic as the formula they use to assign their power rankings came up with this, i\'m surely not surprised at the payoff.  

doing a good job at predicting pick four prices involves more than just looking at odds and field size.  you really need to examine perceived randomness in race types and expected odds skewness.  the pick four, in my opinion, offers the best wagering opportunity around on a daily basis.

now if you really want to hear about a low pick four.  last summer at saratoga ... ;-)

5
Ask the Experts / Re: Why is NYRA doing so poorly?
« on: May 23, 2004, 08:29:46 AM »
i would agree with him on arlington.  my favorite \"modern\" track.  i never saw the attraction to delmar.  saratoga is in a league of its own.  however, there are many small tracks in the country that are very nice.

6
Ask the Experts / Re: Pimlico Special
« on: May 13, 2004, 07:29:31 PM »
i think ole faunty is cross entered for saturday.  i hope he runs here.  

mike

7
Ask the Experts / WHAS
« on: April 29, 2004, 08:11:27 PM »
I was just reviewing the WHAS stakes and was wondering what number Classic Elegance got in her maiden race.



Just kidding there.  Memories of 1999.


8
Ask the Experts / Re: Will the Saint come marching in???
« on: February 29, 2004, 05:52:28 PM »
nice call.

9
Ask the Experts / rotw
« on: July 04, 2003, 09:39:19 PM »
pretty amazing number on mineshaft.  curious if it came about from the variant, ground loss, or both?  bris has him going back to a 109 from a 116 in his previous race.  i mention that just as a point of reference.  

if the morning line holds, i\'ll look to toss mineshaft and look at a couple others.  blinkers on for valponi has been useful in the past.  evening attire moves up on anything but a fast track.  i have a long-standing aversion to dollar bill, but frankel schooled me last week.

[helps if i put the subject on the subject line and not the attachment line]

10
Ask the Experts / handicapping contest
« on: July 04, 2003, 04:24:33 PM »
i was watching the world series of poker and saw where the guy that won had really only played online.  just for fun, i coded up an online handicapping contest.  it\'s strictly a non-commercial site.  i just did it because i thought it would be fun to do.  [read: no entry fee and thus, no prize money]

the format is $200 in contest dollars.  you can make any straight wager.  the race closes at post time.  thus, if you aren\'t doing well, you can take a bomb in the last.

the contest this week is on the saturday card at belmont.

finally, just have fun.  

http://www.theracinggame.com/contest/


11
Ask the Experts / Re: An Emotional ROTW
« on: June 28, 2003, 08:15:15 AM »
i\'m going to have to agree with you here on roar emotion.  i have her 8/5 on my line.  my only concern with her is her pace profile.  she appears to have more of a sprinter\'s profile, rather that of a horse successful at nine furlongs.  however, this is probably one of the weaker grade I fields that i\'ve seen, so anything is possible.  from a pace perspective, final round look interesting to me, and with the expected money on yell, roar emotion, and the frankel/bailey horse, could be the value in the race.

12
Ask the Experts / Re: sire tgi question
« on: June 20, 2003, 08:52:03 PM »
thanks for the clarification.  i was thinking average in the, well, average sense.  once you explained it as average of best, makes sense.

mike

13
Ask the Experts / sire tgi question
« on: June 20, 2003, 05:14:05 PM »
i was looking over the tgi numbers for sires and had the following two questions.

1. the average overall is 18.3.  the sprint average is 20.0 and the route average is 19.1.  seems impossible.

2. do you think there is a significance that the average route number is faster than the average sprint number?

edited to change from trainer tgi to sire tgi



Post Edited (06-20-03 18:15)

14
Ask the Experts / empire maker
« on: May 24, 2003, 04:24:39 PM »
frankel enters in the jersey derby on monday.

15
Ask the Experts / Re: The "Golden Preakness Pattern"
« on: May 20, 2003, 07:49:20 PM »
how did these horses do, figure wise, in the belmont?

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