Ask The Experts

OK I\'ll try an analogy you might be more familiar with.

If you want a pizza do you go to the pizzeria that\'s been run by the same Italian family for four generations or the Indian restaurant that\'s having its annual pizza day and making them using \'the wealth of information they can get now.\'

Pizza - A few win pools:

2012 Kentucky Derby - 52,626,628
2012 Preakness - 20,136,607
2012 Belmont - 20,544,942
2012 BC Classic - 6,086,509
2013 Kentucky Oaks - 4,786,114
2013 Kentucky Derby - 56,864,011
Next highest win pool on Derby Day (Race 9) = 3,014,097

There are two explanations I would think. Either regular players bet around nine times as much on the Derby as the Breeders Cup (and three times as much on the other Triple Crown races) or the Triple Crown pools are significantly swelled by casual players.

The reason Jerry\'s explanation makes perfect sense is that it is the way casual players bet. To them there is no value getting 2-1 about a true 7-5 shot for their $10. What\'s the point they think? It barely buys a round of drinks let alone dinner.

Whether it seems logical to you or not most casual players see the money they bet as money spent, i.e. they almost expect to lose. So their \'reasoning\' is that if they have little chance of winning they might just as well try to win big.

And the reason they are \'uninformed\' is because they (a) can\'t see the point in handicapping as \'everybody knows you can\'t win at betting on horses\' and (b) they don\'t want to make the effort anyway. All they want is the \'buzz\' of thinking they might be a winner and the bigger the better.

Regular players may play percentages but casual players do not. It\'s the same with casinos. You\'ll find more people playing slots (random) than table games (an element of skill).

The attraction  for regular players is that the Triple Crown (particularly the Derby) gets some people away from the slots and into the racebooks. It might also be interesting to see if lottery pools are down during Derby week.

In the end I think a psychologist is better qualified to explain Derby odds than a mathematician.

Hi Mike,

I look after the database for TG and write the software, including the stuff we use to monitor the consistency between tracks and the program which generates the race shapes, one of your particular favorites I think.

Not sure how you rationalise your position in this post - \'never said that EVERY TG Cali fig does not convert\' - with your riposte to HP\'s original post - \'like whole TG numbers for Cali on the slow side vs other solid data.\'

Are you saying \'EVERY TG Cali fig\' is not the same as \'whole TG numbers for Cali?\' If you are then your command of my mother tongue is better than mine!

No matter send JB the list of horses you\'ve tracked and I\'ll run them against our database.

Cheers,

George

Hey, no more of this making nice crap - let\'s have the mental jousting continue. It\'s both entertaining and illuminating.

Hi Moose,

The thing I have most trouble with (given that he has a doctorate in statistics) is his statement to Robes that bigger samples produce misleading results because \'they revert to the mean.\' That makes no sense.

I also didn\'t realize Disraeli was the \'founder of statistics.\' I\'ve always known him as politician and took his quote to be a put-down of statistics - which would be strange for someone who founded it. If you read his bios online it seems he trained as a lawyer and dabbled as a writer.

Still Cmdiri does seem to have a knack for sniffing out the winners though I also found his earlier explanation on the Rags board on the significance of turf horses having raced on yielding tracks a little hard to follow.

In the end he\'s entertaining and you can\'t argue if he\'s tipping winners. It\'s just sometimes hard to follow his reasoning.

George

You should check out the Racing Post website (www.racingpost.com).

According to the RP papers will be available:

Where to buy the Post in Paris this weekend Kiosks around the Gare du Nord on the Boulevard Magenta, Boulevard de Denain and Rue Rene Boulanger
On the way to Longchamp at Avenue Mozart, Boulevard Montmorency, Avenue Henri Martin, Rue de Passy and Rue d\'Auteuil
A dozen kiosks on or around the Champs Elysees
At the course\'s main entrance, tunnel entrance, owners\' entrance and Sursenes entrance, as well as near Tour 7 behind the grandstand.

Many a year since I\'ve been to the Arc but it\'s a great day out - though don\'t expect too much help from the pari-mutuel clerks. If it\'s still there (not sure that it is) try the outdoor cafe 100 yds or so past the main entrance towards the stables before racing. Not elegant but used to be a favourite haunt of the Brits and good food at a good price. Good luck.

George

Hi Michael,

I\'ve e-mailed you.

George

Best day\'s racing will be at Sandown on July 7th (Saturday). Features the Gr1 Eclipse and could see the re-appearance of Derby winner Authorize. Sandown is in Esher on the south-west outskirts of London. Traffic will be a pain but you can always get the train (from Waterloo) to Esher and walk up though the course.

If you\'re up for it on the 1st there\'s a meeting at Salisbury (check out the cathedral as well if you go) which is just about the closest Flat-racing track to Poole. Quality will not be so good but it\'s an old downland course and you get real close to the action.

Cheers,

George